E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion

[CoolHandMike]

1" of rain since early August. Loving the cooler weather (finally) but cheese and rice will it please just rain again. Getting pretty depressed continually not seeing even a hint of rain in the ten-day forecast. WTF is even going on.

[ChescoWx]

Our beautiful autumnal weather continues with unfortunately no rain in sight! We warm to well into the 70's by Tuesday with many lower elevation spots touching the 80's for maybe the final time this year. We trend cooler with temperatures getting back to or slightly below normal levels again by Friday.

[Albedoman]

after looking at the last two GFS runs, these ignoramuses at PADEP better issue a drought warning and soon.  There is no precip for at least two more weeks as the election day rains as well as the pre-halloween fantasy snow storm have all but dissapperered from the LR GFS models. I am telling you all that drought is becoming real serious situation now.  Any dry cold front that comes through will also trigger wildfires bigtime in the poconos as well as the Pine Barrens too.  Wells are drying up quickly. The well drillers in our area have got to be balls to the wall busy right now.  I expect limestone springfed streams to start going dry in our area. The Litttle Lehigh in my backyard will be  going dry real soon and that is a huge problem for the 300,000 people in the LV.  People are still watering their vegetation as well lawns. The plants and shrubs have not gone into winter dormacy.  Landscapers are attemting to reseed and plant new vegetation and trees  but without irrigation it is fruitless. By the time the rains come, the soil temps will be too cold for the seed to germinate and the new plantings root balls will shrivel to nothing, thus with no firm root system established. We basically have until Nov 15 to plant grass seed, yet we have no rain all the way to Nov 6. One week of precip is not going to do it folks. Here at my house , I have two nights already below 30 degrees and with at freezing temps for 4 days now, its not looking good. The soil temps are dropping quickly with no available moisture in the soil profile. Its a real desert right now as the dinural temps are swinging from 70 degrees to around freezing with humidities at 35% or less. Little frost and no dew because of the little low humidities are making the  germination process even a worse situation. 

[Albedoman]

here is my proof on local conditions by LCA. By the way LCA supplies the entire  water supply for just not Lehigh County and Allentown bu the entire NE part of the country. Samual Adams, Niagra, Deer Park, Peierre, Ocean Spray, Desanti, Coke , Dr . Pepper/Keurig etc all use LCA wells to provide you bottled water products and your beverages. Bet you guys did not know this.  And the Little Lehigh in my backyard supplies the entire city of Allentown and it suburbs and is the cleanest trout fed limestone stream for a major metro area in the entire country.

https://www.lehighcountyauthority.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/LCA-WeeklyReport-DroughtMonitoring-Dashboard-101624.pdf

https://www.lehighvalley.org/news/data/lehigh-valley-a-state-leader-in-beverage-manufacturing-companies/

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

after looking at the last two GFS runs, these ignoramuses at PADEP better issue a drought warning and soon.  There is no precip for at least two more weeks as the election day rains as well as the pre-halloween fantasy snow storm have all but dissapperered from the LR GFS models. I am telling you all that drought is becoming real serious situation now.  Any dry cold front that comes through will also trigger wildfires bigtime in the poconos as well as the Pine Barrens too.  Wells are drying up quickly. The well drillers in our area have got to be balls to the wall busy right now.  I expect limestone springfed streams to start going dry in our area. The Litttle Lehigh in my backyard will be  going dry real soon and that is a huge problem for the 300,000 people in the LV.  People are still watering their vegetation as well lawns. The plants and shrubs have not gone into winter dormacy.  Landscapers are attemting to reseed and plant new vegetation and trees  but without irrigation it is fruitless. By the time the rains come, the soil temps will be too cold for the seed to germinate and the new plantings root balls will shrivel to nothing, thus with no firm root system established. We basically have until Nov 15 to plant grass seed, yet we have no rain all the way to Nov 6. One week of precip is not going to do it folks. Here at my house , I have two nights already below 30 degrees and with at freezing temps for 4 days now, its not looking good. The soil temps are dropping quickly with no available moisture in the soil profile. Its a real desert right now as the dinural temps are swinging from 70 degrees to around freezing with humidities at 35% or less. Little frost and no dew because of the little low humidities are making the  germination process even a worse situation. 

It is like a desert out there.   Springton Lake Reservoir also continues to drop, and it is the lowest since the mid 1990's for sure.  Drought warning was needed about 3 weeks ago in my opinion someone is very late on this issuance of a drought warning. 

[RedSky]

GFS 0.0 through 384hrs

 

[KamuSnow]

7 hours ago, RedSky said:

GFS 0.0 through 384hrs

 

A half inch of snow on November 30th will end the streak.

[ChescoWx]

Quite the inversion in temps across the county this morning with about an 18 degree swing from locations below 420 ft ASL like Warwick and West Bradford currently in the mid 30's while higher spots like here in East Nantmeal are in the low 50's. Once the sun gets up everyone warms up well into the 70's with some lower spots possibly touching 80 degrees! The warmth peaks tomorrow before we start to cool down closer to normal to close out this week and into the weekend. Dry weather continues all week!

[Newman]

KABE has only seen 0.01" of precip so far this month, for reference the record low for October precip at KABE is 0.15" back in 1963. Before this year, there have only been 4 years in the KABE record with October's less than 1" of precipitation. The Euro and GFS are consistent with showing a weak cold front moving through next weekend which may or may not break the current record. The Euro is most aggressive, the GFS weakens it for perhaps some sprinkles. Either way, I would be shocked if Allentown ends up with more than an inch of rain this month, or even a half inch for that matter. 

The KRDG records don't extend as far back as KABE, but the previous record at Reading is 0.71" in 2001. In Trenton, also 2001 with 0.51". At KPHL, 1963 is also the record like Allentown when only 0.09" of precip fell in October. All of these locations have 0.02" or less of precip this month.

[Physicsteve]

I guess we just live under high pressure forever now. Have had less than 0.5” in the last 2 months (8/21-10/21) locally. On the bright side, blowing the leaves works like a charm.

As far winter prospects go, is the cold pooling on the correct side of the globe for us this year? Source regions torching? Bueller? I think I remember seeing an SST map recently that looked ‘better’ than the last 2 years or so from Chesapeake Bay northward.