Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Clippers to end the drought? All .10-.25" they use to drop before they became extinct? 

miller b's forming at the tail end of the clippers as they stall out coming toward us and form a transfer low off the MId Atlantic coast.  Lots of ice and wet snow events. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most spots in the county reached the 30's for lows with the coldest being our normal coldest spot Warwick Township with 32.7 degrees. The next few days will run almost 10 degrees below normal for mid-October with highs only in the mid 50's. By the weekend we warm to almost 10 degrees above normal with high approaching 70 degrees. Of course no rain for at least the next week!

image.png.9dd827f3940c6a9f2325d212ddafaf5f.pngimage.png.cae9cf43f0edf822c48116d1c402a4fc.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/13/2024 at 10:18 PM, Albedoman said:

drought guy here- saying that this drought will be broken by Thanksgiving with a heavy rain storm followed by a  light snowfall event for the LV area.  After an initial  few weeks of cold/rainy and maybe even snowy  weather into late  November, the typical rain to snow precip pattern will return by the second week in December with decent cold snaps and maybe even some polar air reaching us by  Christmas. Then the flood gates will be opened for some major  snow events the rest of the winter with constant  refreshed clippers - similar to the winter of 2003 after a blistering drought in 2002.

 

Take away  for the next few months- the La Nina will slowly die off and we will have a ENSO  neutral winter in full effect by early January. This typical weather pattern brings real nice cold snaps, days of snow covered ground and a good chance of frequent arctic clipper MIller B snow events usually starting in the first to second week of December and lasting till March.  The usual  January  thaw maybe tempered this year folks in this pattern.

 

Until then, I see absolutely no significant rain until around Halloween to Election Day time period. I would not be surprised to see election Day to be a washout as our first significant rain event

this guy below in the link does a fairly decent job of agreeing with me for a better explanation of how I think this winter will pan out

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Warwick Township was the cold spot this morning with our first sub 30 degree reading of the autumn season here in Chester County with a low of 29.3 at 7am. Our unseasonably chilly weather continues again today and tomorrow as high temps again remain in the mid to upper 50's. We begin to see a nice warming trend as we head toward the weekend. Many spots could see highs reaching near 70 degrees by Sunday. Our "drytober" continues with no rain in site and none falling across most spots since late September.

image.png.d32929768bcb987a3c9e6ae0cbd4ec8a.pngimage.png.2b947d77f8e8ad9447b698003c3c2ead.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Multiple relatively low lying spots in Chester County fell to freezing this morning including: Chester Springs, Nottingham, Warwick Park, Devault, West Bradford and West Chester. The lowest reading was the 27.6 degree low at Warwick. Higher spots like here in East Nantmeal only dropped to 36.1 degrees - but we did see our 1st light frost of the season. Today will be another.... but our last below normal day for at least the next week. We should see some Indian Summer type weather as we move through the next week with temps rising into the low to mid 70's by next Tuesday. Our very dry streak will continue. However, for the year to date here in 2024 we are still just slightly above normal in precipitation - but we will fall below normal over the next couple days.

image.png.ef7208bff1db9b09f1f5df532dca024e.pngimage.png.fe8413a4b80ef45ffd5c849ddea68d77.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

down to 29 here in Macungie last night. Heavy frost  and a killer freeze. Still no rain in sight. The drought moniort says we are in a moderate drought today. BS I say. The stream levels are down bigtime and wells are going dry. Severe IMHO. Biggest take away, zero chance of the burned up lawn now recovering from this wicked dry spell until next spring. Landscapers will be busy next spring reseeding lawns  from the damage done by this years high and dry fall weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Albedoman said:

down to 29 here in Macungie last night. Heavy frost  and a killer freeze. Still no rain in sight. The drought moniort says we are in a moderate drought today. BS I say. The stream levels are down bigtime and wells are going dry. Severe IMHO. Biggest take away, zero chance of the burned up lawn now recovering from this wicked dry spell until next spring. Landscapers will be busy next spring reseeding lawns  from the damage done by this years high and dry fall weather.

This getting real serious yet no drought warning issued- what is wrong with PADEP? https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/berks/reading-area/mandatory-water-conservation-notice-issued-for-reading-area-customers/article_29a0c5e2-8cc9-11ef-aec9-3752714160ee.html#tncms-source=More-from-newsroom-(right-column)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

What part of the sky western, eastern, northern, southern?

Get the Stellarium ap and end the guess work. Couple more nights to look just past 7pm as far as best viewing, will help that the Moon glare will be reduced as it backs to the horizon. Keep in mind the comet is reducing in brightness by several percent each day now. Looks best with binoculars or telescope.

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A large variation in low temperatures this AM across the county with temps ranging between 30 degrees in our relatively lower spots like Warwick to 45 degrees at higher spots like West Grove. We should see our temperatures start to finally warm back to above normal levels by this afternoon and last through Wednesday before falling back to closer to normal late October levels by the end of next week. No rain in the forecast and the outlook for the remainder of the month is dry - we have an increasing chance to be in a top 3 driest October on record. With 1963 and 1924 being the current record holder of that dubious record.

image.png.91ef516a2051a2b1e734c76c3dc5c9b2.pngimage.png.d5a9c9ea5405aeaf10e69874d9b60029.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

A large variation in low temperatures this AM across the county with temps ranging between 30 degrees in our relatively lower spots like Warwick to 45 degrees at higher spots like West Grove. We should see our temperatures start to finally warm back to above normal levels by this afternoon and last through Wednesday before falling back to closer to normal late October levels by the end of next week. No rain in the forecast and the outlook for the remainder of the month is dry - we have an increasing chance to be in a top 3 driest October on record. With 1963 and 1924 being the current record holder of that dubious record.

image.png.91ef516a2051a2b1e734c76c3dc5c9b2.pngimage.png.d5a9c9ea5405aeaf10e69874d9b60029.png

1963-64 was a decent winter for snow if I recall correctly, so there's that (lol).

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Many lower spots were again near freezing including Warwick with their 4th straight freezing morning - while the higher spots in the county were over 12 degrees warmer in the mid-40's for low temps. A nice warming trend gets under way today peaking on Tuesday before we start dropping back to normal and end then below normal by the end of the work week.

image.png.c4724b91167d2a2dec821dc06533357b.pngimage.png.eb7955434ff35efc5a43944d5975de28.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOL…264hr goofus has rain changing to snow :lol:

But seriously, despite how warm and dry it’s been, I can see us getting an early, wet snowfall, similar to 2012.

Then not much of anything all winter, then a late season storm in late March/early April.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

At this point, I will take anything that brings precip LMAO.  White rain as temps will be in the 70's days before

 

Looks like temps middle 30's 2 am - 8 am 10/30 with wet snow after 2-3" of rain energy dives down from Lake Erie then develops off of Rehoboth Beach that always works out for us in winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Looks like temps middle 30's 2 am - 8 am 10/30 with wet snow after 2-3" of rain energy dives down from Lake Erie then develops off of Rehoboth Beach that always works out for us in winter.

No ECM/CMC support..

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...