Kevin Reilly Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: call it whatever the hell you want for the ENSO, but if we do not get substantial rains in the next 3-4 weeks we are in some deep shite. When I say susbsantial, I mean 3-6 inches spread out in a course of 2-3 weeks. The ground is frozen now in some places, Pure runoff does not help as the only benefit would be to hold off the salt water intrusion into the Delaware a few weeks longer. We need the ground to warm up, which we will get in the next few days but the 12th storm event is an absolute joke as a precip maker right now in the models. Sorry but .5 in rains for a few days will not cut it for some droughgt relief unless we became Seattle again, which I do not see with this progressive upper air flow at all My Christmas storm is slowly going away to the dumpster fire after every model run. WE cannot even squeeze out a good rainmaker of a noreaster. All I can say is that we are not the only ones being screwed in this crappy weather pattern. The Midwest, specially north of the Mason Dixon line is way too warm and dry. Without a good snowpack there, were are really screwed here. Any clipper that reaches here will be DOA without moisture. Flurries and snow shower will not cut it. The winners for snow- Great Lakes. Just when their feet of snow melts next week, they get another round. Will the lakes ever freeze up again in my lifetime LMAO? That pece of siberian high that has remained in Russa for the last 3 years needs to get its ass parked right over southern Cannada for 15 days. You may need more than 3-6" area wide more like 8-10" area wide to feel better. That is why getting snow cover is very important as we head through winter towards March..... That March sun can be brutal if it remains dry and that would set up a very bad April to August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: You may need more than 3-6" area wide more like 8-10" area wide to feel better. That is why getting snow cover is very important as we head through winter towards March..... That March sun can be brutal if it remains dry and that would set up a very bad April to August. Yeah, that's exactly what happened in spring/summer 2002. The last thing we need right now is a 2001-02 redux. Thank goodness for the pattern change in fall 2002, and the snowy winter of 2002-03 that got us out of that drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Although we have certainly had well below normal rainfall amounts here in Chester County across September and October we rebounded to almost 80% of normal in November. Overall on a year to date basis across all 19 current NWS/MADIS sites we are experiencing the 49th driest year with records back to 1893. In fact there have been 9 years with average rainfall across Chester County lower than 2024 just since Y2K. Rainfall ranges from as little as 35" at Atglen to as much as 50" at Avondale for November year to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Still have snow on north and shady areas on this winter vibe weekend. 36F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Yeah, that's exactly what happened in spring/summer 2002. The last thing we need right now is a 2001-02 redux. Thank goodness for the pattern change in fall 2002, and the snowy winter of 2002-03 that got us out of that drought. Yea February 2003 we picked up a wind driven storm of 16" here in Media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 14 minutes ago, RedSky said: Still have snow on north and shady areas on this winter vibe weekend. 36F 52f tomorrow and 57f and rain here Wednesday, morning at 7 am so enjoy the winter vibes while they last the next 8-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: 52f tomorrow and 57f and rain here Wednesday, morning at 7 am so enjoy the winter vibes while they last the next 8-12 hours. Thanks for ruining my imaginary Christmas Eve/Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Today will be our 1st above normal temperature day in the last 12 days. Most spots should touch the low 50's. Mild weather will continue till Wednesday night when we turn sharply colder again with high temperatures both Thursday and Friday potentially staying below freezing. Rain chances both tomorrow and again Tuesday night though Wednesday could bring the area between and 1" to 2" of needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 I'm dreaming of a white... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 3 hours ago, RedSky said: I'm dreaming of a white... its going to be close thats for sure. This needs to be watched, maybe the 26th. Anyway, much needed rain by wed- thursday 2-3 in of rain by the latest runs with the possibility of anafront snowfall of 1-3 inches changeover as the really cold air quickly advects in behind the cold front. This would be nice because the snow that sticks to the ground after the rain will not melt for days. This situation will really help with soil moisture before the ground freezes shut by next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Shouldn't come as a surprise, but we will struggle with any meaningful snowfall in the lowlands thru at least Christmas but more likely until January, if the Nina analogs are worth a damn. Latest GEFS long range finally wants to settle into more of a quasi-Nina look with a trof in the West and a flat SER building. However, the Aleutian low is present which bucks the analog and allows a cold air source from Siberia into central Canada. EPS/GEPS still try and revert back to a +PNA look. I alluded to this about a month back....we will be fighting Nina climo for a good portion of the winter (-pna/ser) but there is a difference this year imo with the Aleutian low and -EPO allowing for cold air to be very close by. Some of the analogs ive seen posted do in fact have this general appearance and are split with the -EPO. However, none of those analog seasons were particularly snowy east of the fall line. As we head into January, if history is correct, we should get some chances. My wag is we see a 2016 redux sorta thing with a hefty one-off snow event then some minor ones outside of that but nothing earth shattering as we try and time the cold with the moisture. In any event, doesn't appear as there will be much meaningful wintry precip to track over the next several weeks until after Christmas, potentially into the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Shouldn't come as a surprise, but we will struggle with any meaningful snowfall in the lowlands thru at least Christmas but more likely until January, if the Nina analogs are worth a damn. Latest GEFS long range finally wants to settle into more of a quasi-Nina look with a trof in the West and a flat SER building. However, the Aleutian low is present which bucks the analog and allows a cold air source from Siberia into central Canada. EPS/GEPS still try and revert back to a +PNA look. I alluded to this about a month back....we will be fighting Nina climo for a good portion of the winter (-pna/ser) but there is a difference this year imo with the Aleutian low and -EPO allowing for cold air to be very close by. Some of the analogs ive seen posted do in fact have this general appearance and are split with the -EPO. However, none of those analog seasons were particularly snowy east of the fall line. As we head into January, if history is correct, we should get some chances. My wag is we see a 2016 redux sorta thing with a hefty one-off snow event then some minor ones outside of that but nothing earth shattering as we try and time the cold with the moisture. In any event, doesn't appear as there will be much meaningful wintry precip to track over the next several weeks until after Christmas, potentially into the New Year. I think a 2005-06 redux is the most likely solution. That was a borderline cold neutral/weak la nina season, which had an active hurricane season, a warm November, and cold start to December. I foresee a very long warm pattern, but the cold returns in the back half of the winter. Hopefully, we do get a Feb. 11-12, 2006 type snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Temperatures will be mild through Wednesday before we turn sharply colder by Thursday morning. Rain will arrive later this morning and be over before the PM rush hour. Rain amounts today will be light with less than 0.25". Rain will return by later tomorrow afternoon and this rain will be more significant with over an inch of rain across the entire area. The rain could end as some snow showers by late Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Pea soup fog 44F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 This fog is nuts. I couldn't see traffic lights until I was about 300 ft from them. 41F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 It looks like our wettest couple of days are on tap since the 5.86" of rain that fell between August 6th and 10th. Models show between 1.25" to as much as 2.75" of potential rain. A cold front will sweep through tomorrow night and end the rain....some models hint at a brief change to snow before ending. These type of rain to snow scenarios rarely work out the way the models project. Either way it is much colder to close out the week before we moderate to close to normal over the weekend with the potential of more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Pea soup fog for days with no chance to look at all the UAP's flying around. We truly suck at everything. .50" rain total 47F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Euro trying to give us a Festivus miracle. GFS says nope! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Adam at 6pm...think 2"+ is a given for most of the area. Looking forward to wind sweep rain (25-30mph+) and possible thunder tomorrow. The dense fog this morning was a real treat as well...not seeing what's in front of you while driving is great fun. 50F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 It's not much yet, but it sounds good hitting the ground. 52F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Adam at 6pm...think 2"+ is a given for most of the area. Looking forward to wind sweep rain (25-30mph+) and possible thunder tomorrow. The dense fog this morning was a real treat as well...not seeing what's in front of you while driving is great fun. 50F Now, why couldn't this happen during our cold pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Now, why couldn't this happen during our cold pattern? Impossible...just doesn't (or little chance) work that way any longer. So I guess we'll have to be happy with a gully washer w/wind and some early morning dense fog. Or best case scenario rain w/a cold front blasting through w/some back end snow and that doesn't usually pan out either....overall we're screwed and be happy w/flurries/snow shower or my cell going batshit crazy w/a approaching squall rolling through... 50F, rising temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 white christmas on the 18Z hope is still alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Some very loud and powerful thunder just rolled through here about 10 minutes ago. It's been a long time since I've been frightened by thunder like that probably some of the loudest I've ever heard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 0.22" thus far. Temp up to 61F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 9 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: Some very loud and powerful thunder just rolled through here about 10 minutes ago. It's been a long time since I've been frightened by thunder like that probably some of the loudest I've ever heard. I guess this was probably caused by the inversion layer last night. Some reading that I did said thunder can reflect off the warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1.40" round 2 1.90" event 57F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Absolutely rippin' here, been a long time since I've heard rain pound against the house like this. 61F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chadzachadam Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Looks like a bit of a bust here in NW Philly, mostly drizzle and light rain so far today with a couple periods of moderate rain. Less than 0.50” so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Heavy rain at times the last hour, red death line approaching i might make popcorn Flooding ftw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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