E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion

[RedSky]

3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Pissed off mean looking Jim O'Brien clouds producing a little squall, 35°. ,windy.

Trash night should be interesting...

Too bad the forecast changed from this look a few days ago

 

[RedSky]

Back in 1979 I had a map of the USA and all the icons for snow/rain/cold/ice happy and mean faces, red and blue lines too make my own weather maps 

[BBasile]

Winds gusting up to 35 mph so far.  Temp is down to 35. 

[JTA66]

56 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Too bad the forecast changed from this look a few days ago

 

What do you know, there's a good guy (high) in the lakes!

[Birds~69]

17 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Winds gusting up to 35 mph so far.  Temp is down to 35. 

No doubt, solid gust with a snow shower mixed in... has a holiday feel. Walmart is a big jolly rancher with ants,people,attacking.

[Albedoman]

 The upcoming pattern change on the 10-12th reverts back to the SOS. This drought is really going to be bad come January. The low flows in the limestone geology streams is beginning to  freeze up the normally warm spring fed streams for the lack of a good flowing base flow.  The trout population is literally being destroyed. I can only imagine how low the ground water table will be in February and how wells will dry up in the middle of winter. Even with a major snow event and  with the ground frozen, no recharging of the groundwater table will take place for months. The latest moderate rains only put out the the chances of wild fires and did nothing for ground water table. I hope the storm on the 12th drops 2+ of rain or we are screwed as the forecast looks dryer than popcorn fart until around Christmas

[RedSky]

38 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

 The upcoming pattern change on the 10-12th reverts back to the SOS. This drought is really going to be bad come January. The low flows in the limestone geology streams is beginning to  freeze up the normally warm spring fed streams for the lack of a good flowing base flow.  The trout population is literally being destroyed. I can only imagine how low the ground water table will be in February and how wells will dry up in the middle of winter. Even with a major snow event and  with the ground frozen, no recharging of the groundwater table will take place for months. The latest moderate rains only put out the the chances of wild fires and did nothing for ground water table. I hope the storm on the 12th drops 2+ of rain or we are screwed as the forecast looks dryer than popcorn fart until around Christmas

And many new potential grandparents swallowing sink holes too

[PhiEaglesfan712]

34 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

 The upcoming pattern change on the 10-12th reverts back to the SOS. This drought is really going to be bad come January. The low flows in the limestone geology streams is beginning to  freeze up the normally warm spring fed streams for the lack of a good flowing base flow.  The trout population is literally being destroyed. I can only imagine how low the ground water table will be in February and how wells will dry up in the middle of winter. Even with a major snow event and  with the ground frozen, no recharging of the groundwater table will take place for months. The latest moderate rains only put out the the chances of wild fires and did nothing for ground water table. I hope the storm on the 12th drops 2+ of rain or we are screwed as the forecast looks dryer than popcorn fart until around Christmas

Finally changing your tune, huh? I told you there wasn't going to be a snowstorm on Christmas and the drought wasn't ending any time soon.

[Birds~69]

Better junk just to my N....still gusty w/a ocassional flake/breezy here so not all bad.

34F

[Ralph Wiggum]

"December 5th....a date.....that will live in snow infamy"

Recorded a light coating here in Telford at my work. Will call it .2" snow. It just likes to flake on December 5.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Drought man talking popcorn farts and depleted trout stocks....and flakes on Dec 5. All is right in the world once again. 

[anthonyweather]

The mild air looks to be short lived, out of here by Wednesday night and back to the freezer possibly thru the 20th

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

"December 5th....a date.....that will live in snow infamy"

 

I remember those great December 5 storms during the 2000s. Three when I was in high school (2002, 2003, and 2005), and another when I was in community college (2007).

Of course, 2005 was the Eagles infamous 42-0 loss on MNF.

[Birds~69]

Nice little bout of winter today, a Packers win tonight would make it spectacular....33F.

[RedSky]

Lightly frosted landscape here for the holiday lights in the extreme NW hills of Bucks, a rarity these days. 

Down in the old Qtown today it was pretty much snowless.

 

[Albedoman]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Finally changing your tune, huh? I told you there wasn't going to be a snowstorm on Christmas and the drought wasn't ending any time soon.

Still sticking to the Christmas storm. Been  saying that since Ocober. We all need a nice Christmas day perid storm event for all the shit we have had to put  up with  the last 2 to 3 years of  no t storms, the unbearble heat, drought and of course no fricking good snow events . We deserve  a foot of snow for Christmas morning. 

[ChescoWx]

6 hours ago, RedSky said:

Too bad the forecast changed from this look a few days ago

 

That man is why I became so interested in weather and wanted to be a professional MET....but alas I was not nearly smart enough for that!!

[ChescoWx]

Here in the Philly burbs of Chester County PA the 1st 5 days of December here in 2024 are off to the coldest start of the final calendar month since way back in 2002. That month in 2002 was also one of the 4 times we have enjoyed a White Christmas since Y2K. Could history repeat itself??

[Kevin Reilly]

5 hours ago, JTA66 said:

What do you know, there's a good guy (high) in the lakes!

Wow see things have really gone to Sh....t a good guy in the great lakes all we can get is a bad guy anymore.  That's when you know the sh...t has hit the fan.

[Kevin Reilly]

5 hours ago, Albedoman said:

 The upcoming pattern change on the 10-12th reverts back to the SOS. This drought is really going to be bad come January. The low flows in the limestone geology streams is beginning to  freeze up the normally warm spring fed streams for the lack of a good flowing base flow.  The trout population is literally being destroyed. I can only imagine how low the ground water table will be in February and how wells will dry up in the middle of winter. Even with a major snow event and  with the ground frozen, no recharging of the groundwater table will take place for months. The latest moderate rains only put out the the chances of wild fires and did nothing for ground water table. I hope the storm on the 12th drops 2+ of rain or we are screwed as the forecast looks dryer than popcorn fart until around Christmas

Forget January if we do not get snow on the ground to refill water tables we are absolutely screwed for June, July, and August it will be a drought that no one has ever seen around here before.  

[Kevin Reilly]

32 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Here in the Philly burbs of Chester County PA the 1st 5 days of December here in 2024 are off to the coldest start of the final calendar month since way back in 2002. That month in 2002 was also one of the 4 times we have enjoyed a White Christmas since Y2K. Could history repeat itself??

We know what we all got in February 2003 it was pretty cool snowing at 6f here and Trenton was partly sunny we got nearly 20" of snow from that storm. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Forget January if we do not get snow on the ground to refill water tables we are absolutely screwed for June, July, and August it will be a drought that no one has ever seen around here before.  

Only if you're under 23 or so. There is precedent for those who remember what happened following the very warm and snowless winter of 2001-02.

[ChescoWx]

Today will be our 10th straight below normal temperature day and the coldest day so far this young winter season. We start a nice moderating trend with temperatures rising to above normal levels by Sunday afternoon with high temperatures well into the 40's to near 50. Rain chances increase Monday night through Wednesday before possibly ending as a little snow on Wednesday night as we turn colder again.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Well I have to report that the Dec. 5 snowmaggedon actually netted me a few mood flakes as I was headed out the door around 1:30 pm.   This morning's lake effect streamer was virga here.

Made it up to 42 yesterday ahead of the front and bottomed out at 28 this morning.

Currently sunny and 32 with dp 15.

16 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

That man is why I became so interested in weather and wanted to be a professional MET....but alas I was not nearly smart enough for that!!

Plus he was a great DJ on WFIL!

[Albedoman]

This drought is rapidly becoming pretty damn serious folks

Water supply managers for the Delaware River Basin this week declared an “emergency,” setting the stage for further action if dry conditions persist.

 

The Delaware River Basin Commission declared the “water supply emergency” during its quarterly meeting Thursday.

 

 

The declaration along with two special permits that were also approved allow the commission to coordinate operations of regional reservoirs, diversion from outside the 42-county basin area and Delaware River flow objectives.

 

 

The last time commission officials declared such an emergency was in 2016, spokeswoman Elizabeth Brown told lehighvalleylive.com.

 

 

“We’re essentially getting the table set if conditions continue to deteriorate,” she said.

 

 

Despite recent precipitation, the potential is still there to reach basin-wide drought operating conditions that would trigger the action authorized Thursday.

 

 

All but two of the counties in the basin covering communities in Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania are under drought watches or warnings declared independently of Thursday’s approvals. Those two counties are Lackawanna and Wayne in Pennsylvania.

 

 

 

 

“DRBC urges all water users to fully cooperate with Basin state water use restrictions and conservation measures and encourages all Basin water users to maximize water efficiency wherever possible,” the commission said in a news release following Thursday’s approvals.

 

 

A basin-wide drought declaration would occur if available water storage drops below a certain level in three New York City reservoirs — Cannonsville, Pepacton and Neversink — located in the Delaware River’s headwaters in New York. As of Thursday morning, storage was 25.9 billion gallons above a drought watch.

 

 

“Over 14 million people rely on the shared waters of the Delaware River Basin,” Executive Director Kristen Bowman Kavanagh states in the release. “During times of drought, the DRBC’s primary responsibility is to conserve and protect water supplies.”

 

 

The commission is responsible for protecting water supply throughout the Delaware River Basin, including by managing the flow of the Delaware River to repel the salt front of the Delaware River Estuary to avoid fouling drinking water supplies for Philadelphia and millions of other people.

 

 

“The special permits approved today will set in motion management actions that will maintain access to clean water for the entire Basin, should conditions worsen,” stated New York State Department of Environmental Conservation Interim Commissioner Sean Mahar.

 

 

Thursday’s approvals would, in part, reduce Delaware River flow objectives at Montague, New Jersey (supported by releases from the New York City Delaware River Basin reservoirs) and at Trenton (supported by releases from the Beltzville and Blue Marsh reservoirs in eastern Pennsylvania). That’s if the dry conditions continue.

 

 

A separate special permit approved would add water releases from Lake Wallenpaupack and New York’s Mongaup system to assist in meeting the Delaware River flow objectives at Montague and Trenton.

 

 

As of Thursday morning, the salt front was located at river mile 85.4, which is just south of the Philadelphia Airport. This is roughly 16.4 miles upstream of its normal location for this time of year, but still 24.6 miles downstream from key drinking water intakes.

 

[RedSky]

^ Nobody quote that 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I don't like 2002 as an analog for this year. That was an el nino. Plus, the signs of a very cold and snowy winter were there early on. We don't have any of that this year.

I think 2005 is a better fit analog for this year. That was a very warm November, which suddenly turned cold in December. If I remember correctly, all but one day in the first two-thirds of December 2005 was below average. Then, it turned warm, and January was an absolute torch. The cold returned for the final two-thirds of February, starting with the Feb. 11-12, 2006 snowstorm.

[Kevin Reilly]

8 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I don't like 2002 as an analog for this year. That was an el nino. Pluis, the signs of a very cold and snowy winter were there early on. We don't have any of that this year.

I think 2005 is a better fit analog for this year. That was a very warm November, which suddenly turned cold in December. If I remember correctly, all but one day in the first two-thirds of December 2005 was below average. Then, it turned warm, and January was an absolute torch. The cold returned for the final two-thirds of February, starting with the Feb. 11-12, 2006 snowstorm.

Looks like things are flipping to a El Nino like pattern at H5 soon... I wouldn't be so sure.  Perhaps a few things this is a neutral year... or once again the Pacific is so warm compared to climatological averages that La Nina and El Nino doesn't me much. 

[Albedoman]

call it whatever the hell you want  for the ENSO, but if we do not get substantial rains in the next 3-4 weeks  we are in some deep shite. When I say susbsantial, I mean  3-6 inches spread out in a course of 2-3 weeks.  The ground is frozen now in some places, Pure runoff does not help as the only benefit would be to hold off the salt water intrusion into the Delaware a few weeks longer.  We need the  ground to warm up, which we will get in the next few days but the 12th storm event is an absolute joke as a precip maker right now in the models. Sorry but .5 in rains for a few days  will not cut it for some droughgt relief unless we became Seattle again, which I do not see with this progressive upper air flow at all  My Christmas storm is slowly going away to the dumpster fire after every model run. WE cannot even squeeze out a good rainmaker of a noreaster.

All I can say is that we are not the only ones being screwed in this crappy weather pattern. The  Midwest, specially north of the Mason Dixon line  is way too warm and dry. Without a good snowpack there, were are really screwed here. Any clipper that reaches here will be DOA without moisture.  Flurries and snow shower will not cut it.

The winners for snow- Great Lakes. Just when their feet of snow melts next week, they get another round. Will the lakes ever freeze up again in my lifetime LMAO?  That pece of siberian high  that has remained in Russa for the last 3 years needs to get its ass parked right over southern Cannada for 15 days. 

[ChescoWx]

Temperatures today will continue to be below normal for early December but will begin a moderating trend tomorrow that will peak on Wednesday before a return to colder weather to finish out the work week. Of note rain is likely both Monday afternoon into the evening and again Tuesday PM through Wednesday night. We could see as much at 1.50" inches of rain across the area.