ChescoWx Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Ryan Hall, Y'all honking about cold weather moving in...need moisture. 49F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Ryan Hall, Y'all honking about cold weather moving in...need moisture. 49F no moisture , no snow- let him honk. He is only exciting because his hometown in Ky will get snow while we still are moisture strarved The Apps and Allegany mts will suck out the moisture big time before it hits us as well as the real winner will be the lake effect snow areas. I am still counting on one small acumalating snow event by Dec 7 th and a nice Christmas day major snowstorm event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Steady shower rolling through, more to the West. 49° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Some light showers this morning with a cold front but not too much in the way of rain amounts. This will be our last above normal temperature day for quite a while. High temperatures today should occur early this afternoon and slowly fall by late PM. Dry tomorrow but rain arrives again by Thanksgiving morning and will last into the afternoon. We could see at least 0.5" of rain before it ends by later afternoon. Then clearing and unseasonably cold for the weekend with high temperatures not too far above freezing both Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Cold and dry pattern coming up…the worst winter weather imaginable. Hopefully we can at least get a clipper or something before the pattern inevitably flips. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: Cold and dry pattern coming up…the worst winter weather imaginable. Hopefully we can at least get a clipper or something before the pattern inevitably flips. Our best chance is a snow event the first week of December, a la 2005 or 2007. I feel like the snow will be shut off for a while after that. For sure, the second half of December and most of January is going to be very warm. We just have to hope it flips back in late January or February (2006 and 2021 are good examples). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 .20" rain this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 4 hours ago, LVblizzard said: Cold and dry pattern coming up…the worst winter weather imaginable. Hopefully we can at least get a clipper or something before the pattern inevitably flips. NO way. I am sticking to my original forecast last month for the upcoming time period- after the moderate rainfall events this past week, with a light snow event that I predicted, the flood gates open up for a period of some nice cold air. I am still calling for a snow accumaltion event during the Pearl harbor day period 12/6- 12/9 as I reierated last week as the pattern changes and reloads. A good meterologist sticks to his original thoughts- I have been burned too many times changing my forecast on a single model run. For those who even care? My usual forecast prediction method for thew last 30+years- the 10 day GFS sniffs out the potential weather pattern changes, the Euro/CMC confirms those changes from 7- 10 days out for the potential pattern change, sometimes attached with a significant storm event. The Euro then confirms the potential pattern change/storm event it 48-72 hours out. Between 36- 48 hours, I rely on the Meso's, especially the NAM, RGEM and HRRR's with 36 hours for total precip/wind info. Chaos playtime on the models with major unreliability issues usually occurs on the GFS and Euro between 4-8 days out with upheavel and reversals sometimes noted. This is the result of unreliable and lack of data info from the few ocean buoys in the western Pacific being ingested into the models. When the potential storm event/pattern change finally comes on shore usually at 3-5 days out, the LR models tighten up and come into some type of agreement. Then its off to the races. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 On 11/22/2024 at 8:05 AM, JTA66 said: It’s not often you see rain in Erie while flakes fly in SE PA. Winter storm warning for Erie, rain expected here. The universe is self correcting. 38F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 A nice day to take care of any last-minute prep for Thanksgiving with sunny weather and temperatures about average for late November at near 50 degrees. Today will be our last above normal temperature day for quite a while. High temperatures will fall to the mid 40's tomorrow and then to the 30's by day and low 20's at night for much of the next week. Our only rain opportunity over the next week arrives by dawn tomorrow and should be exiting stage right by early afternoon. We could see around 0.50" of rain from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 For our Delmarva folks. Data should be flowing on the Internet soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 The ensemble runs of both the GFS and European deliver some snow over the next chilly couple of weeks across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Eh those ensembles will show at least that much snow for the next three months. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Noce to get some more rain. 0.47” this far here in the LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and your families! We have picked up between 0.50" to 0.75" of rain across the county overnight. Here in East Nantmeal we have picked up 0.70" of rain. Rain should end by early this afternoon. After today we should be dry and unseasonably chilly for the next week with temperatures averaging almost 10 degrees below normal levels for the start of December. Highs on both Saturday and Sunday will struggle to get much above freezing for high temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 .70" event 2.80" the last week and 3.15" for November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Currently Cloudy 51f becoming breezy here rain has left stage right high so far today 52f low 42f total rainfall 0.72" Total rainfall last two weeks: 2.45" Happy Thanksgiving to All!! Let's see if we can get a snow event in the first 10 days of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Let's hope this isn't another 89-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Actually reviewing the data another 89 wouldn't be that bad it was a cold first half of winter that snowed 3 times Christmas week and had snow near Thanksgiving and below normal late November through mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 37 minutes ago, RedSky said: Actually reviewing the data another 89 wouldn't be that bad it was a cold first half of winter that snowed 3 times Christmas week and had snow near Thanksgiving and below normal late November through mid January. I think there was also a 20"+ storm for Cape May County and flurries at the same time for SE PA when we were supposed to get 4-8" instead we got dim sun through cirrus here with a blizzard along the board walk in Wildwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 29 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I think there was also a 20"+ storm for Cape May County and flurries at the same time for SE PA when we were supposed to get 4-8" instead we got dim sun through cirrus here with a blizzard along the board walk in Wildwood. and 5' drifts at the coast pure nightmare fuel for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 5 hours ago, RedSky said: Let's hope this isn't another 89-90 I think we're more likely to get a 05-06 or 20-21. I still have hope for a cold and snowy February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 29 Author Share Posted November 29 Picked up 1.07" of rain for the day. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 9 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: I think there was also a 20"+ storm for Cape May County and flurries at the same time for SE PA when we were supposed to get 4-8" instead we got dim sun through cirrus here with a blizzard along the board walk in Wildwood. I think that was Feb ‘89, but maybe I’m misremembering. 1989-90 is my all-time, least favorite winter! That winter got off to such a great start, you thought we were in for something special. Nope! Jan 1 rolled around and winter was over! I’d rather have a ratter from the get go, at least you know there’s nothing to look forward to. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! .80 in the bucket from our latest event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Chilly today but turning colder tomorrow with a reinforcing cold front later today. We could see a couple light snow flurries today. High temperatures both Saturday and Sunday are just a few degrees above freezing. Temperatures will remain well below normal all week with snow chances increasing by Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the approach of an Alberta Clipper system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 my October 13th post drought guy here- saying that this drought will be broken by Thanksgiving with a heavy rain storm followed by a light snowfall event for the LV area. After an initial few weeks of cold/rainy and maybe even snowy weather into late November, the typical rain to snow precip pattern will return by the second week in December with decent cold snaps and maybe even some polar air reaching us by Christmas. Then the flood gates will be opened for some major snow events the rest of the winter with constant refreshed clippers - similar to the winter of 2003 after a blistering drought in 2002. ... Well , this has played out very nicely for me This mornings GFS run is spot on. Hope it stays like this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Lake effect chasing in Erie https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5pE6Ts3q-M It's white Friday in Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Decent dip'n'dot snow shower 37F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Getting blasted with a dip-n-dot squall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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