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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion


Rtd208
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May

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Grrrr...

6ABC 2024 Winter Outlook:

Just like last year, we expect no real lengthy periods of cold, just a few brief shots. So overall, temperatures look to be on the mild side, with more in the way of rain or mixed precipitation events rather than those classic snowstorms. This will give us another winter with below-average snowfall.

Snow predictions

Lehigh Valley: about 22 to 28 inches
Philadelphia: around 14 to 20 inches
Jersey Shore along the coast: 9 to 15 inches

With video:  https://6abc.com/post/how-much-snow-2024-winter-forecast-philadelphia-pennsylvania-new-jersey-delaware/15571389/#:~:text=Just like last year%2C we,winter with below-average snowfall.

 

Maybe I'm missing something but the call of 9-15" "NJ along the coast" seems way high and much above average. Atlantic City average snowfall is 5.9". 

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11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

May

Maybe I'm missing something but the call of 9-15" "NJ along the coast" seems way high and much above average. Atlantic City average snowfall is 5.9". 

Legend map says 15-18" far south Jersey to Barnegat 

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6 hours ago, RedSky said:

Weather World's winter outlook was like turn the lights off and see you in the spring. But some cold in early December so hey..

 

The first half of December looks cold. The second half of December and most of January is going to be warm. I still think there's a chance that it turns back to a colder than average pattern in late January or early February. I think it's going to be a 2020-21 like season, but with the temperature departures amplified.

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Some of the higher spots in Chester County saw their first measurable snow of the young fall/winter season. Some of the trained spotter reported amounts (see map below) to the National Weather Service included 1.3" at West Caln Township / 0.6" at Honey Brook Township / 0.3" at East Nantmeal Township / 0.2" at Fricks and 0.1" at Paoli.

Of note the 0.3" recorded at East Nantmeal Township marks the 2nd consecutive year with measurable November snow in the Township. This follows 4 years without measurable November snow dating back to one of the largest November storms in county history that occurred November 15th through 16th of 2018 when 7.3" of snow was recorded at East Nantmeal Township.

image.png.8f4dad77a5c5d841df9c317f3177761b.png

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2 hours ago, Albedoman said:

MY next big prediction  LMAO  -----Dec 6-7  first 6+ in snow for many   in this region in two years . Always a Pearl harbor day snow storm event. Enjoy the sunny and 50 degree weather in the next three days- it will be short lived

 

 

 

gfs_asnow_neus_54.png

December 4 or 5 seems to be the sweet spot, especially in the 2000s (see 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2007).

2013 was December 8 and 2017 was December 9.

I have been hinting at colder than average temperatures and a major snowstorm during the first week of December.

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4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The first half of December looks cold. The second half of December and most of January is going to be warm. I still think there's a chance that it turns back to a colder than average pattern in late January or early February. I think it's going to be a 2020-21 like season, but with the temperature departures amplified.

 Banking on a Nina analog? 

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A nice weekend ahead although a bit breezy both today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be about where they should be for late November at near 50 degrees for the high temperature both days. Monday should be our warmest day of the week with mid to upper 50's across the area. We start chilling down through the rest of the week and will be keeping a close eye on a potential developing nor’easter that could impact the area as soon as Thanksgiving Day. Depending on the storm track we could see all rain, snow or a mix of both - stay tuned!

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I finished up with 0.35" total yesterday before the system moved out, giving me a 4-day event total of 1.78".  I really didn't see any mixing at all here other than what might have been intermittent white rain (had to stare closely), so it was pretty much an all-rain event here (at least what made it down to the surface).  My high yesterday was just after midnight at 40.

I bottomed out much warmer (relative) this morning at 47 and it's currently a mostly sunny 50, with some puffy cumulus bubbling up, and dp 37.

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Another breezy but dry day today with temperatures within a couple of degrees above our normal high of around 50 degrees. We warm to above normal both tomorrow and Tuesday before the big pattern change to below normal temperatures sets in by Wednesday. Looking ahead below normal temperatures look like a good bet to close out the month and last through at least the first 10 days of December. We have a couple rain chances this week - the first one will be tomorrow night with the cold front and then again with the possible coastal storm on Thanksgiving Day.

image.png.883f913c0f0ec1a39ad4655dc34ad9a5.pngimage.thumb.png.10f51b8357e7fed09cc823d13d3517bc.png

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We have had a very mild month so far here in November with 18 of the 24 days averaging warmer than normal. We will continue that pattern both today and tomorrow before we trend to below normal temperatures to close out November and start December. Rain chances increase toward tomorrow morning but end by afternoon. More rain arrives Thanksgiving morning and should last into Friday morning. The coldest air so far this season arrives for the weekend and high temperatures may struggle to get much above freezing in some spots.

image.png.c09cb3fd40509258bc74a85b2462ca6b.pngimage.thumb.png.e79fa33ed84f59e9208e4e33a32277ac.png

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