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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in Philadelphia Region

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LVblizzard
LVblizzard

Just a word of advice for you guys. Don’t go to a golf course to view the northern lights. I did and I went to leave and now I can’t leave because they’ve locked the gate. I didn’t know they had a gat

Newman
Newman

Just a heads up, Tropical Tidbits finally added more features for the ECMWF. The recent upgrade of the Euro also takes it out to 360 hours

JTA66
JTA66

We’ll have a roaring jet flooding us with Pac puke all winter…patience!

Posted Images

Albedoman

Albedoman

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Albedoman said:

2-3 inches are  my intial  thoughts for the LV proper , more around S  Mt  area  and Blue Mt areas (3-5 inches). Strictly elevation driven snow accumaltions . For example, driving through Shimerville on Rt 29 and toward Bear Creek resort ,  I see some good  accumalting snow. Same goes with driving through Wind Gap, Lehigh Tunnel and Rt 309. Big wet heavy snow flakes  half dollar size to pancake size-white rain). The streets will cave in the LV  for accumalation  if it snows hard enough  in the early morning and toward sunrise. Poconos 12+ in around Tobyhanna a good bet. Winter storm watches issued for the Pocono area by morning Advisories everywhere else after Euro run

still sticking with this as my first call 13 hours ago. The 12Z models for GFS and CMC pretty much back me up. Lots of white rain. 

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Birds~69

Birds~69

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I’d be happy just to see some flakes fly down this way, think there’s a decent chance of seeing that.

Same. Just want to see some flakes falling...just to know it's still possible.

59F/Cloudy

Accu weather throwing out a chance of a thunder banger. Good 2 days heading in...rain, snow chance, possible T-storm and a gusty. Best weather in months. There's our rain stuff out W...Pitt radar.

Pitt.jpg

TB.jpg

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Same. Just want to see some flakes falling...just to know it's still possible.

59F/Cloudy

Accu weather throwing out a chance of a thunder banger. Good 2 days heading in...rain, snow chance, possible T-storm and a gusty. Best weather in months. There's our rain stuff out W...Pitt radar.

Pitt.jpg

TB.jpg

squall line overnight?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2024112018/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png

 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

That GFS Tidbits looks a bit inflated (of course none of this is real but) - same run on WB

image.thumb.png.2687cdb77e1662c5be9654cee51c43fd.png

Regarding this medium range potential centered around 11/28...it could actually work for many of us. But it does have alot going against it at this time, so I'm not sure I would get too vested in anything just yet.

Pros: decent ridging in the NAO domain, cold air available, confluence appearing with cold HP pressing East along the Canadian Border, decent shortwave coming out of the midwest.

Cons: NAO ridging breaking down quickly, Euro only model/ens really hinting at a 50/50 low, Atlantic is toasty.

Mentioned a few days ago, I'm not sure we want anything amped up right now until we get farther along into December. Weaker wave sliding under us would be ideal imo. But like I said also, this could work out. Has some decent things going for it. We'll see how it plays out. Good to even be talking flakes at this time tbh.

Euro with a 50/50 and wave under us:

 

 

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_61.png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_62.png

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Regarding this medium range potential centered around 11/28...it could actually work for many of us. But it does have alot going against it at this time, so I'm not sure I would get too vested in anything just yet.

Pros: decent ridging in the NAO domain, cold air available, confluence appearing with cold HP pressing East along the Canadian Border, decent shortwave coming out of the midwest.

Cons: NAO ridging breaking down quickly, Euro only model/ens really hinting at a 50/50 low, Atlantic is toasty.

Mentioned a few days ago, I'm not sure we want anything amped up right now until we get farther along into December. Weaker wave sliding under us would be ideal imo. But like I said also, this could work out. Has some decent things going for it. We'll see how it plays out. Good to even be talking flakes at this time tbh.

Euro with a 50/50 and wave under us:

 

 

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_61.png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_62.png

100%, anything amped is going to be a mixed bag or cold rain for those of us in the coastal plain/95 potentially even further NW. would be prolific storm for central pa and the poconos. Weaker wave that slides underneath won’t be as prolific of a snowmaker but would be a nice region wide 2-4/3-6” storm for most. 

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Regarding this medium range potential centered around 11/28...it could actually work for many of us. But it does have alot going against it at this time, so I'm not sure I would get too vested in anything just yet.

Pros: decent ridging in the NAO domain, cold air available, confluence appearing with cold HP pressing East along the Canadian Border, decent shortwave coming out of the midwest.

Cons: NAO ridging breaking down quickly, Euro only model/ens really hinting at a 50/50 low, Atlantic is toasty.

Mentioned a few days ago, I'm not sure we want anything amped up right now until we get farther along into December. Weaker wave sliding under us would be ideal imo. But like I said also, this could work out. Has some decent things going for it. We'll see how it plays out. Good to even be talking flakes at this time tbh.

Euro with a 50/50 and wave under us:

 

 

 

 

 

Steve, agree with everything you said....only think I question is the "atlantic is toasty" IMHO one of the least important issues for snow in the mid-atlantic. Give me the right track in winter and unless you are within 30 miles of the ocean I would take my chances!

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Put up the outdoor Christmas decor today....lots of lights,  inflatables, garland, etc. Now just need some flakeage Friday to really finish the mood. The Yankee Candle sugared apple is burning...it's go time.

Mt. Holly lofted a Wind Advisory for the lower tier of the CWA starting tonight -

Quote

Wind Advisory 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
620 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

DEZ001-NJZ013>027-PAZ060-070-071-101>104-106-210900-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WI.Y.0015.241121T0300Z-241121T0900Z/
New Castle-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-
Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern
Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Atlantic City, Millville, Freehold,
Camden, Media, Lansdale, Pottstown, Cape May Court House,
Glassboro, Doylestown, Wilmington, Moorestown, Oxford, Jackson,
Pennsville, Mount Holly, Philadelphia, Reading, Honey Brook,
Kennett Square, Sandy Hook, Morrisville, Ocean City, Hammonton,
Collegeville, Wharton State Forest, West Chester, Norristown,
Trenton, Long Beach Island, and Cherry Hill
620 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, central and southern New
  Jersey, and east central and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Hope your decorations are somewhat secure (might be hard with the inflatables).

Made it up to 62 and it's currently 55 with dp 43.

nws-windadv-phi-winterweatheradv-windadv-winterstormwatch-phiarea-11202024.PNG

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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

Precip shield does not look promising at the moment for a soaking rain in the Lehigh Valley tonight. Someone plz talk me off the ledge on the subject. emoji3.png

I see the concern. But i think i also see some growth on a tail behind the first line.

 

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LVLion77

LVLion77

Posted
Posted
I see the concern. But i think i also see some growth on a tail behind the first line.
 

I think we are in a hell of a drought, and drought begets drought. Nowcasting this looks negative for tonight, particularly vs the initial forecasts of 1”+ rain tonight. I hope my post ages poorly and we get dumped on. I want to be wrong.
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LVLion77

LVLion77

Posted
Posted

I think we are in a hell of a drought, and drought begets drought. Nowcasting this looks negative for tonight, particularly vs the initial forecasts of 1”+ rain tonight. I hope my post ages poorly and we get dumped on. I want to be wrong.

Looks like I may have been wrong as the radar built up nicely with incoming precip shield from the southwest!
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CoolHandMike

CoolHandMike

Posted
Posted

Did not have "spring-type thunderstorm knocking out power to my hotel in November" on my bingo card. Whelp...

Flashy-flash! Thunderboom! Aaaand there goes the power.

I'm in Newark, DE for work, and it's 11/20. But hey, at least it's freaking RAINING, finally??? So I guess we've all got that going for us, which is nice.

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