PhiEaglesfan712 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 2 minutes ago, JTA66 said: 1989-90 redux Not really. That winter was a unicorn, one-of-a-kind. November 1989 was already cold, and it snowed on Thanksgiving (it's still the most recent Thanksgiving snow for PHL). December 1989 was record cold. Then, all of a sudden, the pattern changed and January 1990 was 15 degrees warmer than December 1989. That jump is bigger than the normal March-April or April-May jump. The first third of December is going to be cold, but the middle third should be above average temperaturewise, and overall, December 2024 should be near average. January 2025 is going to be warm like January 1990, but I still think February 2025 will be cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 wow, the runs are even better than I thought. As I stated last month, the pattern change will usher in the deep freeze around Dec 7th after this snow event. The Christmas snow event time frame is still not dead Red Sky. Keep the precip coming , as the drought might be ended by Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 I highly doubt a deep freeze will happen, but I see colder than average temperatures during the first third of the month. There's a very good chance for a snow event during this time frame. However, it will turn warmer than average for the middle third of December. I can see cooler than average temperatures during the final third of December. However, I am not sure of a Christmas snow event. The last White Christmas at PHL was in 2002, and the last snow event near Christmas was December 26, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 0z runs so far are looking very good for measurable snow down to the Lehigh Valley. BL temps will be warm but if we get heavy rates and the snow falls before sunrise on Friday, we could get a coating to an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 0z runs have trended to the ECM. My eyebrows have raised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Recommend the Pivotal 10:1 maps for digital fantasy addicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 2-3 inches are my intial thoughts for the LV proper , more around S Mt area and Blue Mt areas (3-5 inches). Strictly elevation driven snow accumaltions . For example, driving through Shimerville on Rt 29 and toward Bear Creek resort , I see some good accumalting snow. Same goes with driving through Wind Gap, Lehigh Tunnel and Rt 309. Big wet heavy snow flakes half dollar size to pancake size-white rain). The streets will cave in the LV for accumalation if it snows hard enough in the early morning and toward sunrise. Poconos 12+ in around Tobyhanna a good bet. Winter storm watches issued for the Pocono area by morning Advisories everywhere else after Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 ECM cutback only slighty but basically the same with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 2 hours ago, Albedoman said: 2-3 inches are my intial thoughts for the LV proper , more around S Mt area and Blue Mt areas (3-5 inches). Strictly elevation driven snow accumaltions . For example, driving through Shimerville on Rt 29 and toward Bear Creek resort , I see some good accumalting snow. Same goes with driving through Wind Gap, Lehigh Tunnel and Rt 309. Big wet heavy snow flakes half dollar size to pancake size-white rain). The streets will cave in the LV for accumalation if it snows hard enough in the early morning and toward sunrise. Poconos 12+ in around Tobyhanna a good bet. Winter storm watches issued for the Pocono area by morning Advisories everywhere else after Euro run Ah, 309. I go over the Blue on 309 six to eight times per shift running my spring water loads. It's going to be a fun morning if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Latest NAM seems to be doing the best picking out the more elevated spots seeing some measurable snow. If it is correct it looks like most spots from 500ft to 800 ft ASL from NW Chesco/SE Berks and northeast thru Lehigh/Bucks/Montco could see 1" to 2" of slushy accumulation with the amounts ramping up pretty quickly once above 1k feet and up toward the Poconos etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 The GFS a bit more aggressive with significant snows even down to lower spots like ABE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Euro not too bad as it seems to also pick out elevation a bit better like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Can't use 10:1 in this setup, though. Kuchera maps would be closer to verifying, if it plays out as depicted. No one's going to see 10:1 ratios, especially the lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 8 minutes ago, Voyager said: Can't use 10:1 in this setup, though. Kuchera maps would be closer to verifying, if it plays out as depicted. No one's going to see 10:1 ratios, especially the lower elevations. Agreed! Even the Kuchey looks overblown for low spots - this is the type of event where every 50 feet could make differences in snow totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 The FV3 has the banding down to PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Here in East Nantmeal we picked up 0.08" of rain last night. Cloudy today before the rain moves in later tonight most likely around the 9pm hour from west to east across Chester County. Between 0.50" to 0.75" of much needed rain are possible across the county by Thursday morning. By later Thursday afternoon we will see some additional precipitation start to enter the area and this may well be a mix of rain and snow with higher spots in the county the most likely to see some wet snow. This mix of rain and snow may continue into the day on Friday before ending late Friday. Clearing and seasonably chilly this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 I’d be happy just to see some flakes fly down this way, think there’s a decent chance of seeing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 NAM has backed off significantly for NE PA but still gets snow down to the LV and Philly burbs. Probably wouldn’t accumulate since most of it comes during the day on Friday. We’ll see if the rest of the 12z suite agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 9 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: NAM has backed off significantly for NE PA but still gets snow down to the LV and Philly burbs. Probably wouldn’t accumulate since most of it comes during the day on Friday. We’ll see if the rest of the 12z suite agrees. You’re looking at 6z. 12z increased snow pretty significantly from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Trash night. Should Flying Cow Warnings be hoisted? 57F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 RGEM showing a period of snow Friday morning for just about everyone, same with the FV3. Ignore the accumulation maps but should make for some nice snow TV if it happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 It will be all about elevation with this one. You can see the latest NAM is picking out the higher elevation spots like here in NW Chesco and Berks for the relatively higher totals (though still not significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 The German Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 The GFS coming more in line with NAM/EURO on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 On 11/19/2024 at 7:15 AM, Mikeymac5306 said: Welcome back snow birds! Happy snow hunting this year! Was seeing a billion "notifications" and finally got chance to get in here to check. Wasn't sure if it was due to the rare "liquid substance from the sky" or some actual or progged incoming "frozen substance from the sky" (given the WWA and Watches up for the northern CWA). I made it up to 59 yesterday after a low of 44, and had a low this morning of 49, with an amazing 0.04" of rain that happened sometime between 10 pm - 11 pm. In any case, looking forward to some actual soaking rain now. Will have to see where the triple point sets up and whether that generates anything convective. Haven't yet looked at the models but I know the GFS likes to spin stuff up before caving later... Currently partly cloudy and 59 with dp 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Still a signal for something around Thanksgiving weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 12z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 Hi Res Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 First call… Philly: T Reading: C-1” Allentown: C-1” Hazleton: 2-4” Mt. Pocono: 3-6” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now