E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion

[RedSky]

12z GFS going for scorched Earth through 384hrs with .40"

 

Does moisture from the gulf get involved with the massive mid west system next week is the difference between beneficial rain and another record dry month.

 

[RedSky]

Morning low was 24F 

 

[KamuSnow]

Made it down to 28° here, high today was 48°. Currently 42 with dp 24.

[Birds~69]

10 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Made it down to 28° here, high today was 48°. Currently 42 with dp 24.

You're getting some nice cooling. 45° here at 5:50 p.m. Pretty much the same temp at this time last night...

[Birds~69]

37° at 7:45 p.m...

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Yep...so yeah maybe 20" here.

They went in depth about the Fall drought and what it means with stats. Video is 20min+ long...

https://www.fox29.com/video/1538961  

Keep in mind, our last drought started in fall 2001, and we all know what happened that winter. That one torched from the end of October to the heatwave in mid-April. Just about anything would be an improvement over that winter.

[MGorse]

Drought Warning for NJ. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

7 hours ago, RedSky said:

I'd run it through UV light and reverse osmosis just to be sure 

When I used to have a saltwater reef tank, I actually DID have a RO setup that I ran the water through!

10 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Given the dire winter outlooks on these boards (and yeah, I'm mainly in agreement), I'd take 17" and run. Was that for Philly proper? Maybe we can squeeze out a few extra inches here in the NW burbs. 

And as we know, snow accumulation predictions are like throwing a dart...one storm hit or miss makes all the difference.

Don't forget the inevitable "dry slot" that opens up over YBY!

Finally caved and turned the heat on (and knew I needed to get the humidifiers going with it).

Made it up to 48 for a high today and it's currently 35 with dp 26.

[Kevin Reilly]

Currently 35f humidity 53% dew point 20f 

 

High today 47f low this morning was 30f 

 

Finally, below normal temperatures but Zippo coming in regard to precipitation. I mean this is crazy we have gone from blocking highs keeping all the rain away now to blocking North Atlantic Lows something HAS GOT TO GIVE SOON!!

I will say this in this new age one extreme leads to another so it's not a matter of IF an EXTREME WEATHER EVENT IS COMING HERE, IT'S A MATTER OF WHEN!!!

 

Sorry for the caps but it is truth!  Something BIG is coming soon even if it takes 1-3 months!

 

I am sure this gets a hot dog.

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Currently 35f humidity 53% dew point 20f 

 

High today 47f low this morning was 30f 

 

Finally, below normal temperatures but Zippo coming in regard to precipitation. I mean this is crazy we have gone from blocking highs keeping all the rain away now to blocking North Atlantic Lows something HAS GOT TO GIVE SOON!!

I will say this in this new age one extreme leads to another so it's not a matter of IF an EXTREME WEATHER EVENT IS COMING HERE, IT'S A MATTER OF WHEN!!!

 

Sorry for the caps but it is truth!  Something BIG is coming soon even if it takes 1-3 months!

 

I am sure this gets a hot dog.

Greenskeeper either quit or kicked the bucket, what will it be kraut, relish, mustard or chilli? Don't say ketchup.

 

[RedSky]

Greenskeeper left the country post election

[RedSky]

Weather World 30 day outlook is dry and mild, just not as dry as it has been fwiw

 

[RedSky]

I have to vent this has been the shittiest weather year I can remember. Shit winter, shit lack of t'storms spring and summer morphing into shit death valley desert. Something has to give this can't continue forever 2024 never again.

 

 

 

[KamuSnow]

6 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

You're getting some nice cooling. 45° here at 5:50 p.m. Pretty much the same temp at this time last night...

34 here now, but I saw some clouds easing in from the west, so it might not get to 25, which is the updated forecast low for here. I was surprised, earlier 29 was the forecast low, but again those clouds have me skeptical.

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

I have to vent this has been the shittiest weather year I can remember. Shit winter, shit lack of t'storms spring and summer morphing into shit death valley desert. Something has to give this can't continue forever 2024 never again.

you will get a real nice Christmas gift for your patience. Nov and Dec 1966 mimics this pattern

https://weatherworksinc.com/news/1966-christmas-snowstorm

 

 

[RedSky]

14 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

 

But September 66 had 6" rain and November 2" not seeing the similarity.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, RedSky said:

But September 66 had 6" rain and November 2" not seeing the similarity.

 

ikr, November is already shaping up to be one of the warmest on record. If we get lucky, we might get a Christmas miracle like 1998 (that was in a drought, too), but there is no chance of a blizzard happening in December (or a Top 10 snowiest winter like the entire 66-67 season).

I personally think December and January will be dry. December could be close to average, and I think January will torch. If something is going to happen this winter, it will be in February, but we'll need a MJO 8/1 mismatch pattern to combat the -PDO la nina (like we had in February 2021 and January 2022).

[Hurricane Agnes]

Had some non-diurnal temp swings overnight where I bottomed out at 31 (first below freezing for me this season) just after midnight and then suddenly there was a (relative) warm-up between midnight and 1 am (could have been clouds that advected in and killed the radiational cooling), where the temp rose to the mid-30s and leveled out there the rest of the night.

It's currently mostly cloudy and 39 with dp a dry 25.

[Albedoman]

The pattern will have abrupt change by Thanksgiving like I have been saying for at least a month or two. I expect moderate rains by the end of next week and then bam  a nice little snow event. This mornings GFS run is in agreement.  Time to shutoff the outside faucets and rake up the rest of the leaves by next Wednsday as the extreme dinural temp regime we have been in will be gone as well as the high in the 60's.  I a mstill seeing a Christmas snow event too. The cold air is starting to be in place as the storms form to the SW in the models. Its a chance LOL

 

 

 

[MacChump]

11 hours ago, RedSky said:

Greenskeeper left the country post election

or he is getting ready for a Cabinet appointment

[ChescoWx]

Clouds increased overnight allowing temperatures to rise a bit as we moved toward dawn. These same clouds will cap high temperatures today to the upper 40's in most spots across Chester County. Showers will try to move in from the west....but will weaken due to strong high pressure to our northeast and our very dry air mass. The best chances for any showers will be in Southern Lancaster county and down in Maryland. We then see a gradual warming trend that will end abruptly by later next week. Much chillier air moves in at that time and should last right through the end of November.

[The Iceman]

late month into december shaping up to definitely start cool. heights in place to potentially see an early season snow as well. Ensembles hinting at atlantic blocking getting in place by Nov. 20th with a -EPO/+PNA occurring shortly thereafter which should filter cold air into the area. As the atlantic block weakens, there will likely be a chance for something imo. It's early december so chances are already low but the pieces look to be in place at least.

 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024111406/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2024111400/eps_z500a_namer_41.png

 

[The Iceman]

The real concern I have about this winter is that we haven't seen @Ralph Wiggumyet. He usually posts his thoughts by now.  Maybe he thinks it's an 01-02, 11-12 redux lol

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

The real concern I have about this winter is that we haven't seen @Ralph Wiggumyet. He usually posts his thoughts by now.  Maybe he thinks it's an 01-02, 11-12 redux lol

An 01-02 redux is certainly possible, and I think would be the worst case scenario. After all, that was our last drought, and that was near a solar max (like what we have now).

December and January are going to be dry. That is almost certain. I think December is the up-and-down month in regards to temperatures. The first third will be cold, the middle third warm, and the final third cooler than average. I see January torching. February is going to determine if we have a quick one-month winter (like January 2022), or if the entire 2024-25 winter is going to torch like 01-02. It's too early to determine, but it's still possible to get a MJO 8/1 mismatch, to counter the -PDO la nina, in February. If we stay MJO 4/5/6 in February, then we won't have much of a winter.

11-12 had that October 29 snowstorm, then the pattern change at the beginning of November, which caused the torch winter. 01-02 was pretty much doomed from the start.

[The Iceman]

18 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

An 01-02 redux is certainly possible, and I think would be the worst case scenario. After all, that was our last drought, and that was near a solar max (like what we have now).

December and January are going to be dry. That is almost certain. I think December is the up-and-down month in regards to temperatures. The first third will be cold, the middle third warm, and the final third cooler than average. I see January torching. February is going to determine if we have a quick one-month winter (like January 2022), or if the entire 2024-25 winter is going to torch like 01-02. It's too early to determine, but it's still possible to get a MJO 8/1 mismatch, to counter the -PDO la nina, in February. If we stay MJO 4/5/6 in February, then we won't have much of a winter.

11-12 had that October 29 snowstorm, then the pattern change at the beginning of November, which caused the torch winter. 01-02 was pretty much doomed from the start.

That's why i like the looks being advertised late month. If they come to fruition I will feel much more hopeful towards winter. Last winter we had a similar advertised massive -NAO in early december that was really just transient and muted by the pacific which never came together. That really set the tone for winter. If the upcoming pattern actually delivers with help from the pacific, I think we can start taking the 13-14, 99-2000 like pattern possibilities more seriously. Yes there will be a thaw in January but I could see getting on the board with a storm or 2 in December then picking back up in February if the december pattern delivers. I feel like December sets the tone for winters in Nina's. If this upcoming pattern disappoints and we get blanked in December, winter will likely disappoint. If it delivers, I'll be much more optimistic.

[LVblizzard]

I'm interested in that ULL swinging through in about a week. I think there's a decent chance some of us see our first flakes of the season.

[Birds~69]

Pretty cool video of a meteor (?) or whatever someone posted on FB right down the street from me. I could have crossed it off my list if viewed live....damn it!

Hurricane Agnes...this video was taken by the drivers dash cam driving by the Assi Plaza for a frame of reference.

https://www.facebook.com/100000953913439/videos/1341798850536029/

46F/Cloudy

Looks, kinda feels like snow out there but we all know better...  

 

[Newman]

Just a heads up, Tropical Tidbits finally added more features for the ECMWF. The recent upgrade of the Euro also takes it out to 360 hours

[RedSky]

Fire watch up for Saturday 

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
337 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024


NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-151215-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FW.A.0002.241116T1200Z-241116T2300Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
337 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
MUCH OF NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Fire
Weather Watch for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is
in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon.

* AFFECTED AREA...Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset,
  Middlesex, Western Monmouth, Eastern Monmouth, Mercer, Salem,
  Gloucester, Camden, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean,
  Cumberland, Atlantic, Cape May, Atlantic Coastal Cape May,
  Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Southeastern Burlington,
  Carbon, Monroe, Berks, Lehigh, Northampton, Delaware,
  Philadelphia, Western Chester, Eastern Chester, Western
  Montgomery, Eastern Montgomery, Upper Bucks and Lower Bucks.

* TIMING...From Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 62.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur due to a combination of strong winds, low
relative humidities, and dry fuels. Listen for later forecasts
and possible Red Flag Warnings.

   For more information about wildfire danger, burn
restrictions, and wildfire prevention and education, please visit
your state forestry or environmental protection website.

&&

$$

[LVblizzard]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

Just a heads up, Tropical Tidbits finally added more features for the ECMWF. The recent upgrade of the Euro also takes it out to 360 hours

Still no weenie snow maps though  at least we have Pivotal as a free source for those.