RedSky Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 4 hours ago, 21chuck said: Can someone explain what is happening? This seems like a dry spell completely without precedent. I am from the central part of Northern California originally and this is exactly how August-October might look out there. Honestly a bit drier than it would be out there. Who is getting the precip in this pattern? New Mexico? Yes this is without precedent Mad Max times approaching. All the rain went to New Mexico, The Sahara desert and Florida. Family member moved to Florida a month ago and they say it's rained almost every day they want to know if it's normal lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 woo hoo sprinkles showing up on the radar. Might get enough to spot the car windows with concrete pollen and dust. By the way NJ is in a drought watch However PADEP has their heads buried in the sand. So those hydrologists are out of their minds. They will not be satisfied until Green Lane and Blue Marsh lake reservoirs are empty and the Delaware River is full of salt water. Local municipal water companies are already requesting the public to conserve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Spin the wheel and make a deal, it's over if your horse spills that flask of water 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 https://www.nj.com/news/2024/10/nj-orders-fire-restrictions-in-all-21-counties-amid-worsening-drought-spike-in-forest-fires.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_content=nj_facebook_nj&fbclid=IwY2xjawGGpeJleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHewn4VtHOEisIZ6TMdnNYS7qRNSGV6el_Nv0-K3wHtnvE43tG15yrFyahA_aem_9CpPMMXQOtCHKyErWG7cOQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Trace with a damp pumpkin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Last rain IMBY was on 9/29, with nothing since - not even something that could have been considered "unmeasurable", even if wetting the walks. Almost reminds me of what happened in 2001 after 9/11. That "dry" had extended up into NY through the winter as well where I remember thinking about how they would even try to clear the WTC debris in the midst of snowstorms and none ever really appeared that winter. The result was some excessive heat and a period of drought during the summer of 2002 though. I found a good map - for soil moisture from drought.gov, that I think reflects why we all consider this pretty bad! It does look cyclic though = For some obs - my coldest so far this month was the low of 38 on 10/17 and alternately, I made it to 82 for a high this past Tuesday. It's currently 61 with dp 53. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Amazing! Just used my windshield wipers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 In hindsight, it was easy to see why there is a drought this fall. Our last two droughts were in 1998-99 and 2001-02. This year shared characteristics with both years. 1998-99 was coming off a strong ONI el nino and 2001-02 was near a solar maximum. This year, we have both happening. Don't expect the drought to end any time soon. In fact, I had 1998-99 pegged as an analog in page 2 of this thread: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Had just enough drops to wipe them off my windshield. 59 degrees. Never thought I would pray for a hurricane to be a drought buster but man the GFS looks sexy this morning... or maybe it's just a mirage since it's so far out still, and we are in a new desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Last rain IMBY was on 9/29, with nothing since - not even something that could have been considered "unmeasurable", even if wetting the walks. Almost reminds me of what happened in 2001 after 9/11. That "dry" had extended up into NY through the winter as well where I remember thinking about how they would even try to clear the WTC debris in the midst of snowstorms and none ever really appeared that winter. The result was some excessive heat and a period of drought during the summer of 2002 though. I found a good map - for soil moisture from drought.gov, that I think reflects why we all consider this pretty bad! It does look cyclic though = For some obs - my coldest so far this month was the low of 38 on 10/17 and alternately, I made it to 82 for a high this past Tuesday. It's currently 61 with dp 53. That soil moisture map sucks. Soil moisture does not follow the Delaware River. That is a fact. Everyone is in the zero percentile right now except the higher elevations as was evident in my post weeks ago about a backhoe near my yard digging 4-6 feet down and the soil was powder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 MY election day storm is back LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 12 hours ago, 21chuck said: Can someone explain what is happening? This seems like a dry spell completely without precedent. I am from the central part of Northern California originally and this is exactly how August-October might look out there. Honestly a bit drier than it would be out there. Who is getting the precip in this pattern? New Mexico? While rare this is not unprecedented in the area. Here in the burbs of Chester County we have gone 25 days as of today without rain. Still 9 days away from our all-time record of 34 days back in October - November 1924 and 31 days back in October 1963. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Today will be our 25th straight day without rain across many spots in the county. I have found 6 stations with measurable (0.01") rain since October 1st. The most being the 0.09" of rain at West Bradford. The other 13 current stations have recorded no rain this month. The longest stretches without rain in Chester County was the 34 straight days at both Phoenixville and West Chester from October 9th thru November 11, 1924 and 31 days at Coatesville and Chadds Ford back in October 1963. A cold front passed through this morning, and we should see temperatures near to below normal through the weekend before warming to above normal by Halloween. Longer range models hint at cooler and wetter weather near Election Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 20 minutes ago, Albedoman said: That soil moisture map sucks. Soil moisture does not follow the Delaware River. That is a fact. Everyone is in the zero percentile right now except the higher elevations as was evident in my post weeks ago about a backhoe near my yard digging 4-6 feet down and the soil was powder That's not the purpose of the map. For general "drought" stats, there are other maps. Here is a description of what NOAA uses for that - https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/nasa-sport-lis-soil-moisture-products And there are obviously sensors/probes available as well (I have a bunch of Ambient ones that I use that communicate with my weather station). Current CONUS map below. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 7 hours ago, Albedoman said: MY election day storm is back LOL I already voted, so I don’t have to worry about being out on Election Day. Would be better another day but we do need rain badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Thank goodness the GFS takes the cane out to sea and doesn't drown election day, who needs rain anyway.. btw ECM and CMC not seeing any hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 Many of the lower spots in Chester County were well down into the 30's including a below freezing low at Warwick Park for the 7th time this month. Higher spots in the county have still not experienced even 1 freezing low this autumn. Temperatures are near to slightly below normal through the weekend before we start a nice warming trend that should peak on Halloween with temperatures that day well into the mid-70's! Of course, absolutely no rain in the forecast for at least the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 I'm refilling the birdbath on a daily basis now. Once topped off, the critters come scurrying like teenagers to a kegger! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 GFS has lost the idea for the chance of thirst quenching rains from a hurricane. 0.0" through 384hr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 This is one of the longest stretch of boring weather I ever witnessed with no real end in sight... 60F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 Yes 1874 to be exact we are approaching that record and will smash it!!! Not sure where but someone said this is not unprecedented I am sorry, but I disagree this is in one word for this area in regard to this dry stretch abnormal! According to records this has not happened before a dry stretch like this. We still currently sit at 0.38" here in Media Delaware County since August 18th, 2024! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 A cold front (of course dry) has passed through the area this morning. Winds will pick up and temperatures will again be a little below normal with some higher spots struggling to reach 60 degrees. Chillier tomorrow before we start a steady warming trend that will last through Halloween. While we will be nowhere close to a record warm trick or treating we could see temperatures in lower spots well into the 70's to near 80 degrees. There is a freeze watch out tomorrow night for the higher spots who have not yet dropped to freezing so far this fall season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 Was out on my local bike path today. There's a section that crosses a small swamp, and this is the first time I've ever seen it dried up. You can see the water line on the trees where the level normally is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 My idiot neighbors have a bonfire going on this windy evening. Gee wtf could possibly go wrong?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Low this morning 39f going on up to 59f Rain for October 0.00" Rain since August 18th 0.38 Looking forward maybe we can squeeze out a shower or two by Friday, November 1st??? If so, November would be off to a very wet start LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Today should be several degrees chillier than yesterday with highs in the upper 50's. Freeze warning tonight although many spots have already seen multiple freezing temps in lower spots of the county. Most spots except the highest locations like here in East Nantmeal should see a freeze by Monday morning. We start a nice warming trend tomorrow that will last through Halloween before we trend cooler to start November. This week's warmer temperatures should ensure our first above normal temperature month since July. There is a slight chance of showers later on Halloween night....but I am not holding my breath! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Finding lots of small streams dried out with fish wiped out. GFS through 384hr with no changes we have the strongest high pressure blocking since the Neanderthals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Finding lots of small streams dried out with fish wiped out. GFS through 384hr with no changes we have the strongest high pressure blocking since the Neanderthals. It's a once in 1,000-year drought! Now, what are the chances of a once in 1,000 winter! Something has to give! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 15 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: It's a once in 1,000-year drought! Now, what are the chances of a once in 1,000 winter! Something has to give! If by once in a 1,000 year winter you mean one of the warmest winters, then sure, I like our odds. I imagine Thursday evening I’ll be yelling at the trick or treaters lingering at the door that I’m not paying to air condition the outside! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 7 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: It's a once in 1,000-year drought! Now, what are the chances of a once in 1,000 winter! Something has to give! I have been calling for this severe drought since June. No longer a laughing matter right guys? Once the limestone streams go dry, all hell will break loose with PADEP. I awaiting PA Fish Commission to be discussing the fish loss in uppper reaches of the main trout streams real soon in the media. Just about every municipality in the LV has declared a burn ban and the LV is even in listed in the fire watch areas for the entire nation. I promise you that tons of landscapers and residents will be watering later this week when the temps are in the 80's agin, sucking down those groundwater levels big time and drying up base flows in the smaller streams. Tons of landscaping trees, bushes and new lawns are being established right now only by irrigation. Golf courses are being watered big time too since the sunny warm weather is giving them tons of customers. Car wash businesses are booming after a brief sprinkle in the past week as the cars are so dirty from the pollen and dust that has turned to concrete on the cars surface from the sprinkles. I still believe the extreme drought pattern will break by mid November and we should get some moderate rainfall events. I do expect a nice winter storm around Thanksgiving of a few inches of snow as this is typical of this weather pattern. By the way, the first rainfall event of over .25 in with even a moderate breeze will bring down the leaves all at one time. The leaf piles will be huge this year. By the way, at 3 pm today, the dewpoint was 20 degrees- just unreal how dry the air is and how the forest floors are literally at tinderbox right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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