ChescoWx Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 A good 10 degree spread in low temps this morning - with lower spots in the lower 40's like Warwick and low 50's in higher spots like KMQS and East Nantmeal. The NWS has highs today and tomorrow in the mid-70's - I suspect today may generally be around 70 with the mid-70's holding off till tomorrow. Cold front sweeps thru tomorrow night with some slight shower chances. This will usher in our coldest weather of the early fall season to date. Highs will remain below normal through the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 Below is an analysis of the number of days with below freezing minimum temperatures by month and observing station for here in Chester County PA. Most locations with the exception of the highest spots will typically see their 1st sub 32 degree reading here in October. We already have seen the first freezing temperature this week at Warwick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 I think Mike should unplug the Cherry Hill radar and save Mt Holly a few bucks on this month’s electric bill. My creek is bone dry. I’m making a point to top off the birdbath every few days to help the critters. Even the deer are approaching the house to drink from it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 GFS has 0.0" through 336hrs. After what feels like two decades of receiving above normal rainfall most of the time in what I liked to call the new climate didn't see this coming the dryness has hit absurd first in my lifetime levels. It's most of the country now too with the exception of the southeast and South America including the Amazon is experiencing an historic drought. Some kind of high solar activity tie in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 18z GFS has green moving in around hour 258. Nothing beats being in the bullseye 11 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Winter of 01-02 redux incoming? Or 11-12? Weren’t both super dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 10 hours ago, JTA66 said: I think Mike should unplug the Cherry Hill radar and save Mt Holly a few bucks on this month’s electric bill. My creek is bone dry. I’m making a point to top off the birdbath every few days to help the critters. Even the deer are approaching the house to drink from it. There is a radar in Cherry Hill? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 9 hours ago, MGorse said: There is a radar in Cherry Hill? It’s a long time running gag around here…the legendary “Cherry Hill radar” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 10 hours ago, The Iceman said: Winter of 01-02 redux incoming? Or 11-12? Weren’t both super dry? 98-99 and 01-02 were the drought seasons. 11-12, while very warm, was very wet (especially in August/September 2011). 07-08 was more dry than 11-12. If not for the late October rainstorm in 2007, we probably have a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Our last above normal temperature day (70's for highs) on the way before a sharp turn to chillier for the remainder of the upcoming work week. High temperatures will struggle into the low 50's both Tuesday and Wednesday with frosty or even freezing temps possible Wednesday through Friday morning. Many spots have yet to record any rain this month....our only chance of rain this week looks to be tonight and that rain is likely to remain to the northwest of Chester County across Berks and Lehigh counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 .05" through 384hr on 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Was checking KRDG climate data this morning and, going back two months to August 13th, only 1.37" of precip has been recorded there which is close to the 1886 record of 1.17". For reference, the average during this stretch is 9.3". Euro and GFS ensembles are pretty adamant on a cold/dry and warm/dry pattern setting up, with any cool spells bringing in a dry NW flow, and then a subsequent upper level ridge setting up shop. Not really anything exciting to point out looking ahead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Absolute horse shite. 70% of rain to zilch 3 events in a row over the last 3 weeks. Mt Holly just stop predicting rain until every model indicates more than .25 of rain in a 24 hour period. If padep does not issue a drought warning, they can kiss m0y as%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 1 hour ago, Newman said: Was checking KRDG climate data this morning and, going back two months to August 13th, only 1.37" of precip has been recorded there which is close to the 1886 record of 1.17". For reference, the average during this stretch is 9.3". Euro and GFS ensembles are pretty adamant on a cold/dry and warm/dry pattern setting up, with any cool spells bringing in a dry NW flow, and then a subsequent upper level ridge setting up shop. Not really anything exciting to point out looking ahead. 0.38" here in Media since August 18th crazy stuff. We are approaching historic levels looking at the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Yeah driest weather since 1886 I figured as much Canada had it's warmest September on record that must be contributing to this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 This is drought guys time to shine let's hear it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Winds be a kicking. At a park, nice color on trees even though we're in a drought. Leaves flying everywhere. Squirrels galore... 77F but it doesn't feel like it with the winds, clouds and low dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 drought guy here- saying that this drought will be broken by Thanksgiving with a heavy rain storm followed by a light snowfall event for the LV area. After an initial few weeks of cold/rainy and maybe even snowy weather into late November, the typical rain to snow precip pattern will return by the second week in December with decent cold snaps and maybe even some polar air reaching us by Christmas. Then the flood gates will be opened for some major snow events the rest of the winter with constant refreshed clippers - similar to the winter of 2003 after a blistering drought in 2002. Take away for the next few months- the La Nina will slowly die off and we will have a ENSO neutral winter in full effect by early January. This typical weather pattern brings real nice cold snaps, days of snow covered ground and a good chance of frequent arctic clipper MIller B snow events usually starting in the first to second week of December and lasting till March. The usual January thaw maybe tempered this year folks in this pattern. Until then, I see absolutely no significant rain until around Halloween to Election Day time period. I would not be surprised to see election Day to be a washout as our first significant rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 by the way, I am crossing my fingers that the front at least brings enough precip to wash the dust off the cars from todays winds. Not a drought buster for sure but enough to wet the ground as the radar looks promising for at least a 2-5 minute downpour tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 We have already reached our high for today with mid to upper 60's at midnight across the county. Windy and chilly today with temps mainly in the 50's to near 60 degrees. Tuesday through Thursday will see well below normal temperatures for mid-October with highs only in the low to mid 50's. Frost and even some freezing temps will be possible each night starting tomorrow night. We start a warming trend in time for next weekend. No rain in sight. I have recorded no rain since September 29th here in East Nantmeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 Starting to see a little color in the trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 10 hours ago, Albedoman said: drought guy here- saying that this drought will be broken by Thanksgiving with a heavy rain storm followed by a light snowfall event for the LV area. After an initial few weeks of cold/rainy and maybe even snowy weather into late November, the typical rain to snow precip pattern will return by the second week in December with decent cold snaps and maybe even some polar air reaching us by Christmas. Then the flood gates will be opened for some major snow events the rest of the winter with constant refreshed clippers - similar to the winter of 2003 after a blistering drought in 2002. Take away for the next few months- the La Nina will slowly die off and we will have a ENSO neutral winter in full effect by early January. This typical weather pattern brings real nice cold snaps, days of snow covered ground and a good chance of frequent arctic clipper MIller B snow events usually starting in the first to second week of December and lasting till March. The usual January thaw maybe tempered this year folks in this pattern. Until then, I see absolutely no significant rain until around Halloween to Election Day time period. I would not be surprised to see election Day to be a washout as our first significant rain event lol, as soon as you wrote this, I knew this post was a joke. Keep in mind, our last drought (2001-02) was an ENSO neutral season near a solar max, and we got one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record. That said, I don't think we're getting an ENSO neutral winter. We are in a strengthening la nina. It probably won't be as strong as 1998-99, but we're heading towards an extended drought like that winter. The ONI might be saying ENSO neutral, but the MEI (https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/) was already showing a weak la nina at last update (JA), and is probably headed towards strong la nina territory by the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 Just got back from a Jebwalk, winds took down a large branch which landed on some power lines…snap, crackle, pop!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 The neighbors well has run dry, this is escalating quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: lol, as soon as you wrote this, I knew this post was a joke. Keep in mind, our last drought (2001-02) was an ENSO neutral season near a solar max, and we got one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record. That said, I don't think we're getting an ENSO neutral winter. We are in a strengthening la nina. It probably won't be as strong as 1998-99, but we're heading towards an extended drought like that winter. The ONI might be saying ENSO neutral, but the MEI (https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/) was already showing a weak la nina at last update (JA), and is probably headed towards strong la nina territory by the next update. the tide will change- mark my words. I have it seen happen several times in the last 30-40 years. La Nina is fading quickly. Evidence is with the GOM moisture becoming an issue in the last few weeks and the jet stream that fed and steered the living hell out of the last two hurricanes over the SE USA that was way too far south for this time of the year. Once the neutrality pattern sets in, the Arctic clippers will return with a vengeance and so will the cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 33 minutes ago, RedSky said: The neighbors well has run dry, this is escalating quickly When the township replaced the 24 inch stormwater pipe about two weeks, the soil profile was literally dust as it was so dry. In all my years, I have never seen the soil profile that dry 4 to 6 foot down. I am reiterating PADEP has their head up their a** for not declaring a drought warning. Keep on watering people, as more wells go dry and the base flows disappear in the limestone geology streams. The shale stream beds are already dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 Arrakis desert planet Let Paul Mua'Dib bring the rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 3 hours ago, Albedoman said: the tide will change- mark my words. I have it seen happen several times in the last 30-40 years. La Nina is fading quickly. Evidence is with the GOM moisture becoming an issue in the last few weeks and the jet stream that fed and steered the living hell out of the last two hurricanes over the SE USA that was way too far south for this time of the year. Once the neutrality pattern sets in, the Arctic clippers will return with a vengeance and so will the cold temps. Clippers to end the drought? All .10-.25" they use to drop before they became extinct? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 Maybe we get some rain off a positive NAO now I am reaching. However, looks like it signals warm and dry like Neuman said though so there is that. Zippo on the models through 8 AM Wednesday, October 30th. On 10/13/2024 at 2:05 PM, Newman said: Was checking KRDG climate data this morning and, going back two months to August 13th, only 1.37" of precip has been recorded there which is close to the 1886 record of 1.17". For reference, the average during this stretch is 9.3". Euro and GFS ensembles are pretty adamant on a cold/dry and warm/dry pattern setting up, with any cool spells bringing in a dry NW flow, and then a subsequent upper level ridge setting up shop. Not really anything exciting to point out looking ahead. 0.38" here in Media since August 18th crazy stuff. We are approaching historic levels looking at the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 Comet A3 on this cool, breezy night. 51F. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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