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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion


Rtd208
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I'm already over fall. The worst season for northeast weenies unless we get a strong tropical system affecting us. Storm season passed a month ago and snow likely won't get here for another 2 months. We're just stuck in a boring cycle of sun and rain without anything particularly exciting.

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5 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I'm already over fall. The worst season for northeast weenies unless we get a strong tropical system affecting us. Storm season passed a month ago and snow likely won't get here for another 2 months. We're just stuck in a boring cycle of sun and rain without anything particularly exciting.

Rain?

 

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Here in Chester County we finished September as the 65th coolest first month of autumn across 132 years of records - so pretty average. Below is the climate summary for the month across all 18 reporting stations. It was however the 14th driest September with an average rainfall of only 1.40"

 

image.thumb.png.ac7121cd93bf8251f31a0fcbb8236e5c.png

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While mighty rare (only 6 times since 1893) the first measurable snow can occur in October here in Chester County PA. The last occurrence was in 2011 and was also the largest October snowstorm in county history. It was elevation driven with between 5" to 9" of snow falling across the stations over 550 ft ASL. Of note the October snow in 1972 in some areas of the county would for the most part be the only snow of the winter season. In fact at Coatesville that was the only winter that no measurable snow was recorded.

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On 10/2/2024 at 12:33 AM, RedSky said:

Rain?

 

 I know there is sarcasm in that post. Lol.  I got 1.01" in September and one of my huge maples has already dropped most of it's leaves.  But after the last bunch of years with so much rain it's nice to see a dry spell.

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With autumn upon us I thought I would look at the average first freeze along with earliest and latest occurrence across Chester County PA at all 31 available stations. As you might expect the relative lower elevations experience freezes and the end of the growing season about 6 days earlier compared to the somewhat higher spots. There is great variability across the years with the earliest recorded freeze being at Phoenixville on September 17, 1986 and the latest being over 2 months later at Devault 1W on December 2nd 1985. The average date of the first freeze is October 23 at elevations below 407 ft ASL and October 29 above 440 ft ASL.

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Yay!!!  We just had a few small drops on the windshield. This is a pretty incredible stretch here.  Only 0.38" of rain since August 15th here in Media, Delaware County.  

NAO still negative: Check (good for winter??)

Models: No Rain in sight Check

 2024-2025Winter Weather Outlook: No Idea Check!!

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Happy Red October Phillies Day to those who celebrate!!! Go Phillies!
A beautiful stretch of autumnal weather on the way with both today and tomorrow reaching above normal high temps in the low 70's before we chill down to well below average highs starting on Monday and thru the rest of the week. Nigh time lows starting tonight will be in the 40's and maybe some 30's by Wednesday morning. Some shower chances increase by Sunday night with a cold frontal passage - otherwise a dry week.
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the drought guy is now saying that a drought watch will be issued now.  The Green Lane reservoir in Montgomery county is the lowest I have ever seen  in the last 30+ years . Philly relies on this water. Allentown's Little Lehigh water source will be next.  The sinkholes have continued to open up and will only get worse. If we do get heavy rain, the sinkholes will really open up.  Personally, I see red flag warnings coming in the next few weeks as the dry cold fronts will make the Pine Barrens and forest floors a tinder box with the falling leaves.  Very little color as the leaves are just turning brown and falling off- even the maple and poplar trees.  These Florida hurricanes are literally sucking the living shit out of available mositure to be transported to  the NE with normal frontal passages.  The GOM and Atlantic has been turned off and with the Alleghenies/Appalachian mountains  in PA, all the rain is being dumped in Ohio and western PA  is being rung out and we are left in a desert. Last night's 80% rain and thunderstorms  that was in the forecast on Friday dwindled to shit in 24 hours. Need I say more?  

This pattern is really bad.  Landscapers cannot reseed because its to dry, new trees must be watered sucking down the creeks and other water sources and no significant  rains in the next 2-4 weeks PADEP better wake up

 

 

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Well I made it through September with <1" of rain (0.68"), literally dribs and drabs, hundredths of an inch at a time.  So far I have zero measurable for October.

It made it up to 75 today after a 62 low and it's currently 65, with dp 49.

But in other news - OMFG Hurricane Milton.  Central pressure down to 919 and sustained winds 180 mph. :o

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-meso-meso2-14-00_16Z-20241008_map_noBar-32-1n-10-100-lwir-820pm-animated-10072024.gif

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A stretch of below normal temps looks likely for most of the next week. With highs in the mid 60's most day's with the exception of our one mild day on Saturday when high temps could touch the 70's. The chilliest air of the early fall season then looks to arrive next Monday with highs struggling to escape the 50's in some of the higher spots of Chester County. Sadly, about our only shot of rain looks to be Sunday night with a cold front.

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11 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

But in other news - OMFG Hurricane Milton.  Central pressure down to 919 and sustained winds 180 mph. :o

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-meso-meso2-14-00_16Z-20241008_map_noBar-32-1n-10-100-lwir-820pm-animated-10072024.gif

And then down to 897.  Crazy.  I'm in Orlando now with a flight out tonight.  It's a bit eerie watching the hotel and the area prepare.  Lots of people checking out early, everything outside being put into storage.  Strangely quiet for such an active resort.  Hopefully nothing happens to my flight or else I'll be spending a few extra days down here.  MCO is shutting down tomorrow morning.  

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1 hour ago, BBasile said:

And then down to 897.  Crazy.  I'm in Orlando now with a flight out tonight.  It's a bit eerie watching the hotel and the area prepare.  Lots of people checking out early, everything outside being put into storage.  Strangely quiet for such an active resort.  Hopefully nothing happens to my flight or else I'll be spending a few extra days down here.  MCO is shutting down tomorrow morning.  

It scraped up against the Yucatan and did an ERC!  Last update had it down to 145 mph and it's back up to about 917.

Had heard yesterday that Disney World would stay open but I doubt that at this point.

Temp here is creeping up and am now at 59 with a nice low dp of 49.

 

last48hrs-911am-10082024.gif

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