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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion


Rtd208
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Here is the NAO throughout the summer some highs some lows but nothing really too locked in though. 

 

Looking forward we are moving neutral then negative should be interesting to see what changes we see in the coming weeks.  I like to call this period where we go from predominately positive to neutral to negative a time of chaos when it comes to the models for mid latitude systems, I am not sure how that translates though to the Tropical Atlantic.

 

However, I do remember how negative the NAO was when Sandy came rolling up from Eastern Jamaica to wreak havoc up the mid-Atlantic seaboard in October of 2012. 

Interesting times ahead as we move towards fall and winter for sure!

In regard to winter the SST Delaware points NE have my attention for winter storms and an overall pattern of blocking giving us above normal snowfall NE Maryland Northern Delaware points northeastward. 

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13 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

A fall to remember huh?

I mean, I wouldn’t complain if we got some tropical action. Or maybe even an early season snowstorm…

If you're a snow lover, this probably isn't the best. We got both in 2011, and that winter (2011-12) ended up being an absolute torch. Of course, we got Sandy the following year, and 2012-13 was another below average snow season.

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wow the drizzle that is falling is really getting the street wet-- IN SPOTS.  40% chance of nothing. Why must they indicate t- storms and get my hopes up? well onto Francine in the next two weeks- our last hope for significant  rains until Halloween. You know damn well it will wait until Halloween night to rain hard. At least it will be cooler

 

 

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37 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Trace with that but the second trace of the day!

 

Not even a trace here you are lucky!  Now we turn our attention to next weekend looks like a storm coming up from the south and then redeveloping off the Delmarva winter pattern arriving early so here come the big snows!!!  

Also, not sure of our La Nina / El Nino state but looking over the pattern really doesn't look too La Nina to me maybe weak El Nino conditions or even neutral conditions. 

 

GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

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3 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Not even a trace here you are lucky!  Now we turn our attention to next weekend looks like a storm coming up from the south and then redeveloping off the Delmarva winter pattern arriving early so here come the big snows!!!  

Also, not sure of our La Nina / El Nino state but looking over the pattern really doesn't look too La Nina to me maybe weak El Nino conditions or even neutral conditions. 

 

GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

I think we already had one of those back in July and it underperformed west of I95. Could be wrong.

 

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Well happy met Fall!  Last Friday, I ended up with 0.20" of ran to finish August with 6.02", but not distributed as well as I would have liked.

I had some spritzes yesterday that wet the walk but didn't tip the bucket but did manage a 0.01" overnight after midnight.

After a low of 72 yesterday, I made it up to 85 for the first day of September.

With the frontal passage this morning just after 2 am, the dews dropped out of the 70s and it's currently mostly cloudy and 66 with dp 58.

 

On 9/1/2024 at 1:15 PM, Kevin Reilly said:

Not even a trace here you are lucky!  Now we turn our attention to next weekend looks like a storm coming up from the south and then redeveloping off the Delmarva winter pattern arriving early so here come the big snows!!!  

Also, not sure of our La Nina / El Nino state but looking over the pattern really doesn't look too La Nina to me maybe weak El Nino conditions or even neutral conditions. 

 

GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

There have been articles about the possible formation of an Atlantic La Nina (and also mentioned in a NOAA Blog post) - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atlantic-nina-verge-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention

atlantic-ocean-temperatures-2024-jun-jul

 

atlantic-nino-index-1982-2024.jpg?itok=L

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On 8/27/2024 at 4:34 PM, LVblizzard said:

A fall to remember huh?

I mean, I wouldn’t complain if we got some tropical action. Or maybe even an early season snowstorm…

Most of us have been around long enough to know that an early season snow, say before Thanksgiving is the absolute kiss of death for the rest of the winter.

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4 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Most of us have been around long enough to know that an early season snow, say before Thanksgiving is the absolute kiss of death for the rest of the winter.

I agree. If  we have accumulating snow the week after Thanksgiving, we will be in good shape.  We need the cold arctic air to be established over us the first week of December, not in Novemeber, otherwise we wast a month tracking perfect scenarios for accumulating snow events.Less than 1 inch events do not count.   From the old fart of the forum

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A great weather week ahead as we start September. We should see high temps start below normal and moderate to near normal in the upper 70's by the end of the week. Nightime lows will reach the 40's in some areas tonight and especially tomorrow night in the lower locales of the county. Our next rain chances wait till Friday night.
Chester County records for today: High 105 degrees in Phoenixville (1954) / Low 40 degrees at Kennett Square (1909) / Rain 2.24" at Phoenixville (2006)
image.png.17dd9fcaf5a9c284a3c02bbeb7854924.png
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1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

I agree. If  we have accumulating snow the week after Thanksgiving, we will be in good shape.  We need the cold arctic air to be established over us the first week of December, not in Novemeber, otherwise we wast a month tracking perfect scenarios for accumulating snow events.Less than 1 inch events do not count.   From the old fart of the forum

110% agree. Same seems true for spring/summer. Get an official heatwave in April, we tend to have a relatively benign summer.

73F/DP 53F

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10 hours ago, JTA66 said:

110% agree. Same seems true for spring/summer. Get an official heatwave in April, we tend to have a relatively benign summer.

73F/DP 53F

The sample size of official heat waves in April is really small: 1976, 2002, and 2009. This certainly rings true for 1976 and 2009, but not 2002 (which was a very hot summer). Although each of those followed up with a very cold and snowy winter. Coincidentally enough, each of these years were a developing el nino.

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This morning's low here in East Nantmeal of 48.5 degrees represents the coldest early autumn season temperature in my 21 years of weather records in the Township. The previous record was the 48.1 on September 6, 2013. The lowest temperature I could find across the County this morning was the 42.8 at Warwick Twp.
Below normal temps will slowly warm back to near normal by Thursday before rain chances increase toward the weekend and we again fall back to below normal by the end of next weekend.
Chester County records for today: High temperature 103 degrees at Phoenixville (1953) / Low 41 degrees also at Phoenixville (1916) / Rain 3.72" at West Chester MADIS (2012)
image.png.c7ce9594133ac9be8896e7d8e3647677.png
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20 hours ago, RedSky said:

12z guidance trending for a miss to the east next Saturday

 

I ref NCAA tennis and next Saturday is my first match of the season, I bet it rains just because that’s how it usually goes. Dry for weeks and suddenly rain when I need to be outside.

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Another cool start to the morning with most spots across the county well down into the 40's again for overnight lows. Our great weather continues with temps staying in the 70's for highs for the remainder of the work week. Our next chance of rain comes Saturday night before clearing and turning a bit cooler again by Sunday.
Chester County records for today: High 103 degrees at Phoenixville (1953) / Low 43 degrees at West Chester (1946) / Rain 3.48" at Phoenixville (1935)
image.png.34427ab2e2c5f1c865b242c836453ff5.png
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Pond here is down to maybe one foot of water. Old timers say it's never been dry. Lawn is 50% brown and yellow which is crazy because it was lush green only a week ago from the 3.50" rain the first two weeks in August. 

GFS is down to a .25" shower chance Saturday and it looks dry forever after that this us nuts.

 

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