Rtd208 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 A fall to remember? Post your obs and discussion here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 A fall to remember huh? I mean, I wouldn’t complain if we got some tropical action. Or maybe even an early season snowstorm… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 Here is the NAO throughout the summer some highs some lows but nothing really too locked in though. Looking forward we are moving neutral then negative should be interesting to see what changes we see in the coming weeks. I like to call this period where we go from predominately positive to neutral to negative a time of chaos when it comes to the models for mid latitude systems, I am not sure how that translates though to the Tropical Atlantic. However, I do remember how negative the NAO was when Sandy came rolling up from Eastern Jamaica to wreak havoc up the mid-Atlantic seaboard in October of 2012. Interesting times ahead as we move towards fall and winter for sure! In regard to winter the SST Delaware points NE have my attention for winter storms and an overall pattern of blocking giving us above normal snowfall NE Maryland Northern Delaware points northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 13 hours ago, LVblizzard said: A fall to remember huh? I mean, I wouldn’t complain if we got some tropical action. Or maybe even an early season snowstorm… If you're a snow lover, this probably isn't the best. We got both in 2011, and that winter (2011-12) ended up being an absolute torch. Of course, we got Sandy the following year, and 2012-13 was another below average snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 Given recent history I am not expecting anything big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 12z GFS doesn’t get dews above 60 at all for the entirety of the run past Labor Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 wow the drizzle that is falling is really getting the street wet-- IN SPOTS. 40% chance of nothing. Why must they indicate t- storms and get my hopes up? well onto Francine in the next two weeks- our last hope for significant rains until Halloween. You know damn well it will wait until Halloween night to rain hard. At least it will be cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Decent shower... 78F/DP 72F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Trace with that but the second trace of the day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 37 minutes ago, RedSky said: Trace with that but the second trace of the day! Not even a trace here you are lucky! Now we turn our attention to next weekend looks like a storm coming up from the south and then redeveloping off the Delmarva winter pattern arriving early so here come the big snows!!! Also, not sure of our La Nina / El Nino state but looking over the pattern really doesn't look too La Nina to me maybe weak El Nino conditions or even neutral conditions. GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 3 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: Not even a trace here you are lucky! Now we turn our attention to next weekend looks like a storm coming up from the south and then redeveloping off the Delmarva winter pattern arriving early so here come the big snows!!! Also, not sure of our La Nina / El Nino state but looking over the pattern really doesn't look too La Nina to me maybe weak El Nino conditions or even neutral conditions. GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits I think we already had one of those back in July and it underperformed west of I95. Could be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 I saw a single distant lightning flash from those frontal showers earlier. Might be the last lightning I see for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: I saw a single distant lightning flash from those frontal showers earlier. Might be the last lightning I see for quite awhile. I was just looking at that... Last call! Smokem if you gottem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Well happy met Fall! Last Friday, I ended up with 0.20" of ran to finish August with 6.02", but not distributed as well as I would have liked. I had some spritzes yesterday that wet the walk but didn't tip the bucket but did manage a 0.01" overnight after midnight. After a low of 72 yesterday, I made it up to 85 for the first day of September. With the frontal passage this morning just after 2 am, the dews dropped out of the 70s and it's currently mostly cloudy and 66 with dp 58. On 9/1/2024 at 1:15 PM, Kevin Reilly said: Not even a trace here you are lucky! Now we turn our attention to next weekend looks like a storm coming up from the south and then redeveloping off the Delmarva winter pattern arriving early so here come the big snows!!! Also, not sure of our La Nina / El Nino state but looking over the pattern really doesn't look too La Nina to me maybe weak El Nino conditions or even neutral conditions. GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits There have been articles about the possible formation of an Atlantic La Nina (and also mentioned in a NOAA Blog post) - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/atlantic-nina-verge-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nodriveslow Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Had a whopping .04" in Fox Chase overnight. Windows are open and the AC is off!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 On 8/27/2024 at 4:34 PM, LVblizzard said: A fall to remember huh? I mean, I wouldn’t complain if we got some tropical action. Or maybe even an early season snowstorm… Most of us have been around long enough to know that an early season snow, say before Thanksgiving is the absolute kiss of death for the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 4 minutes ago, bigtenfan said: Most of us have been around long enough to know that an early season snow, say before Thanksgiving is the absolute kiss of death for the rest of the winter. I agree. If we have accumulating snow the week after Thanksgiving, we will be in good shape. We need the cold arctic air to be established over us the first week of December, not in Novemeber, otherwise we wast a month tracking perfect scenarios for accumulating snow events.Less than 1 inch events do not count. From the old fart of the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 A great weather week ahead as we start September. We should see high temps start below normal and moderate to near normal in the upper 70's by the end of the week. Nightime lows will reach the 40's in some areas tonight and especially tomorrow night in the lower locales of the county. Our next rain chances wait till Friday night. Chester County records for today: High 105 degrees in Phoenixville (1954) / Low 40 degrees at Kennett Square (1909) / Rain 2.24" at Phoenixville (2006) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: I agree. If we have accumulating snow the week after Thanksgiving, we will be in good shape. We need the cold arctic air to be established over us the first week of December, not in Novemeber, otherwise we wast a month tracking perfect scenarios for accumulating snow events.Less than 1 inch events do not count. From the old fart of the forum 110% agree. Same seems true for spring/summer. Get an official heatwave in April, we tend to have a relatively benign summer. 73F/DP 53F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 12z guidance trending for a miss to the east next Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 10 hours ago, JTA66 said: 110% agree. Same seems true for spring/summer. Get an official heatwave in April, we tend to have a relatively benign summer. 73F/DP 53F The sample size of official heat waves in April is really small: 1976, 2002, and 2009. This certainly rings true for 1976 and 2009, but not 2002 (which was a very hot summer). Although each of those followed up with a very cold and snowy winter. Coincidentally enough, each of these years were a developing el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Yeah really looking forward to some cool weekend nights at the firepit... Oh. Rain next two weekends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 This morning's low here in East Nantmeal of 48.5 degrees represents the coldest early autumn season temperature in my 21 years of weather records in the Township. The previous record was the 48.1 on September 6, 2013. The lowest temperature I could find across the County this morning was the 42.8 at Warwick Twp. Below normal temps will slowly warm back to near normal by Thursday before rain chances increase toward the weekend and we again fall back to below normal by the end of next weekend. Chester County records for today: High temperature 103 degrees at Phoenixville (1953) / Low 41 degrees also at Phoenixville (1916) / Rain 3.72" at West Chester MADIS (2012) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 20 hours ago, RedSky said: 12z guidance trending for a miss to the east next Saturday I ref NCAA tennis and next Saturday is my first match of the season, I bet it rains just because that’s how it usually goes. Dry for weeks and suddenly rain when I need to be outside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 I feel like we’re getting the nice weather we missed almost the entire year. Rainy winter and into spring plus a hot and miserable summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 3 Share Posted September 3 Bottomed out at 54 this morning (although the last time I was that low was Aug. 21st), and made it up to 73 for a high. With dews in the 40s, you couldn't ask for a more perfect day. It's currently 73 and mostly sunny with dp 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Another cool start to the morning with most spots across the county well down into the 40's again for overnight lows. Our great weather continues with temps staying in the 70's for highs for the remainder of the work week. Our next chance of rain comes Saturday night before clearing and turning a bit cooler again by Sunday. Chester County records for today: High 103 degrees at Phoenixville (1953) / Low 43 degrees at West Chester (1946) / Rain 3.48" at Phoenixville (1935) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Pond here is down to maybe one foot of water. Old timers say it's never been dry. Lawn is 50% brown and yellow which is crazy because it was lush green only a week ago from the 3.50" rain the first two weeks in August. GFS is down to a .25" shower chance Saturday and it looks dry forever after that this us nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 My low of 52 this morning was the coolest since May 31st and I made it up to 77 for a high for another beautiful day. It's currently a mostly sunny 75 with dp creeping up a bit to a still-okay 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 ye p , I called it over a week ago. Here come the sinkholes- twice in less than a week in Palmer Township. The groundwater tables are dropping like a rock-- literally https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/easton/2024/09/25-foot-deep-sinkhole-opens-across-parking-lot-from-palmer-twp-warehouse.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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