September 2024

[Rtd208]

The EPS also shows the potential for some rainfall as well.

[donsutherland1]

A generally pleasant temperature regime will continue through most or all of the week. Temperatures could top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the middle of the week before a slow warming trend commences afterward. Showers are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall amounts should generally be light.

In the Southwest and parts of California, yet more excessive heat is now developing. Parts of the region could see near record to record high temperatures on one or more days during the week. Phoenix could even see its highest temperatures so late in the season.

In addition, a significant hurricane will likely make northwestern Florida landfall on Thursday. The potential exists for the storm to be a major hurricane on landfall given the ongoing marine heatwave in the region and relatively low shear. However, the hurricane's rainfall is unlikely to reach the New York City area.

Early long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly (2010), as was the case with the September 20th teleconnections.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.472 today (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -3.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.948 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1° (0.1° below normal).

 

[doncat]

T . 68/60 temp split.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 94 (1970)
NYC: 97 (1895)
LGA: 93 (1970)
JFK: 90 (1970)


Lows:

EWR: 40 (1947)
NYC: 41 (1947)
LGA: 42 (1947)
JFK: 43 (1963)

Historical:

 

 

1722: La Nouvelle-Orléans (New Orleans) was founded May 7, 1718, by the French Mississippi Company, under the direction of Jean-Baptiste Le Moyne de Bienville, on land inhabited by the Chitimacha. Four years later, a hurricane destroys nearly every building in the village, including the only church and hospital.

1815 - One of the greatest hurricanes to strike New England made landfall at Long Island and crossed Massachusetts and New Hampshire. It was the worst tempest in nearly two hundred years, equal to the hurricane which struck in 1938, and one of a series of severe summer and autumn storms to affect shipping lanes that year. (David Ludlum)

1904 - The temperature at Charlotteburg, NJ, dipped to 23 degrees, the coldest reading of record for so early in the autumn for the state. (The Weather Channel)

 

1975: On September 22, Hurricane Eloise intensified to attain Category 2 strength, and became a major hurricane of Category 3 status shortly after that as it turned towards the northeast. Several ships penetrated the storm's center during its passage through the Gulf. Hurricane Eloise continued to strengthen until it reached its peak winds of 125 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of about 955 mbar. It moved ashore along the Florida Panhandle near Panama City on September 23.

1983 - A thunderstorm downburst caused a timber blowdown in the Kaibab National Forest north of the Grand Canyon. Two hundred acres were completely destroyed, and scattered destruction occurred across another 3300 acres. Many trees were snapped off 15 to 30 feet above ground level. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Autumn began on a rather pleasant note for much of the nation. Showers and thunderstorms were confined to Florida and the southwestern deserts. Warm weather continued in the western U.S., and began to spread into the Great Plains Region, but even in the southwestern deserts readings remained below 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front in the south central U.S. produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced softball size hail near Noble and Enterprise, and baseball size hail at Lequire and Kinta. A tornado near Noble OK destroyed a mobile home injuring one person. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Seventeen cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Devils Lake ND with a reading of 22 degrees. Jackson KY reported a record low of 41 degrees during the late afternoon. Strong northwesterly winds ushering cold air into the central and northeastern U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Indianapolis IND. Winds along the cold front gusted to 65 mph at Norfolk VA, and thunderstorms along the cold front deluged Roseland NJ with 2.25 inches of rain in one hour. The temperature at Richmond VA plunged from 84 degrees to 54 degrees in two hours. Snow and sleet was reported at Binghamton NY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2005 - Hurricane Rita reached the Texas/Louisiana border area near Sabine Pass as a category-3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. A storm surge of at least 15 feet flooded parts of Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Terrebonne and Vermilion parishes, where sugar cane crop losses were estimated near $300 million. An 8-foot storm surge in New Orleans overtopped the provisionally-repaired levees (from Hurricane Katrina damage) and caused additional flooding. A total of 10 fatalities were reported, and preliminary damage estimates ranged between $4-5 billion.

[SACRUS]

 

Propblem for Mets  / Braves baseballl Wed - Thu

 

[Allsnow]

Nothing more than a few drops. Drought continues 

[FPizz]

.03"

[Rjay]

0.0001"

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Propblem for Mets  / Braves baseballl Wed - Thu

 

only a problem if the braves win the first 2 games..

[bluewave]

On 9/22/2024 at 3:48 PM, MJO812 said:

We need this in 4 months. 

Unfortunately, it wouldn’t be much help in 4 months if the Greenland Block continues linking up with the Southeast Ridge. Notice how the Southeast Ridge is correcting stronger for Thursday. So the models have pushed the heaviest rains north of I-78 from previous runs. We also get into SW flow which has been a rarity this month. So the usual warm spots in NJ could make it over 80° in what was originally forecast to be a cooler day. 

New run

 

Old run

 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, it wouldn’t be much help in 4 months if the Greenland Block continues linking up with the Southeast Ridge. Notice how the Southeast Ridge is correcting stronger for Thursday. So the models have pushed the heaviest rains north of I-78 from previous runs. We also get into SW flow which has been a rarity this month. So the usual warm spots in NJ could make it over 80° in what was originally forecast to be a cooler day. 

New run

 

Old run

 

 

 

A swap with what was a much warmer forecast for Monday (yesterday).   Clouds may get in the way but if enough sun heights pushing 588 DM and 850 MB temps in the 16c range.  What an interesting pattern

[SACRUS]

 

63 / 50 cloudy. Cloudy and showers and some spotty drizzle today and Wed.  Helene targets the Panhandle and southeast and pumps heights on the EC. Warmer Thu / Fri could get to or exceed 80 with enough clearing. Drier weekend, may be cloudy Saturday but a nicer sunday.  Overall drier and warmer.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Major C 3/4 west of Tampa

 

[SACRUS]

10 hours ago, nycwinter said:

only a problem if the braves win the first 2 games..

Looks like Wed/Thu are possible rain outs and for Atl it remains wet Fri/Sat vs the KC R.   Not sure what MLB would do,  they only have Mon 30th before the WC playoffs.  Atl should and every other EC team have built a dome.  

[SACRUS]

 

someone is doing the rain rain stay away dance on loop or the record is skipping.

 

[Allsnow]

Brutal. Driest September on record 

[ForestHillWx]

Actually had a nip in the air this morning. Went with a long sleeve short/shorts combo getting the kids off to school…

[Brian5671]

models with a swath of rain NYC/north tomorrow night

[gravitylover]

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models with a swath of rain NYC/north tomorrow night

2" centered over me. I hope it starts slow so the ground softens before the heavy stuff or the runoff will be painful. 

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal. Driest September on record 

All previous major hurricanes taking the same track as Helene came NNE up along the coast or OTS. This will be the first time a major hurricane bends back toward the NW. Just goes to show how anomalous a blocking pattern we are in.

 

All historical major hurricanes taking track close to forecast Helene

 

Rare bend back to NW after landfall

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All previous major hurricanes taking the same track as Helene came NNE up along the coast or OTS. This will be the first time a major hurricane bends back toward the NW. Just goes to show how anomalous a blocking pattern we are in.

 

All historical major hurricanes taking track close to forecast Helene

 

Rare bend back to NW after landfall

 

 

 

 

That’s two gulf storms this month that failed to produce a sprinkle here 

[uofmiami]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All previous major hurricanes taking the same track as Helene came NNE up along the coast or OTS. This will be the first time a major hurricane bends back toward the NW. Just goes to show how anomalous a blocking pattern we are in.

 

All historical major hurricanes taking track close to forecast Helene

 

Rare bend back to NW after landfall

 

 

 

 

Assuming Helene to be strengthens to a major hurricane, we shall see. If not, what do those maps show?  Probably a bend back NW, etc. 

[doncat]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That’s two gulf storms this month that failed to produce a sprinkle here 

Yeah and also that strong coastal that moved NW into the Carolina's.

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Assuming Helene to be strengthens to a major hurricane, we shall see. If not, what do those maps show?  Probably a bend back NW, etc. 

It's kinda funny all the talk of a major hurricane and it's not even named yet.

[uofmiami]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's kinda funny all the talk of a major hurricane and it's not even named yet.

The way this hurricane season has gone to date, I'd be hesitant to go along with the models on intensity, especially at this early stage of development too.  We'll see how strong PTC9 gets in the days ahead.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Assuming Helene to be strengthens to a major hurricane, we shall see. If not, what do those maps show?  Probably a bend back NW, etc. 

All 22 hurricanes of any intensity passing through that area moving NNE continued recurving to the NE and none bent back to the NW.

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's kinda funny all the talk of a major hurricane and it's not even named yet.

keeps getting delayed too...

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

keeps getting delayed too...

Would be a huge bust

[Allsnow]

All this hurricane talk as The Atlantic continues to be a dry desert. Major fail by the pros of a active/historic season 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Would be a huge bust

I would think it forms but some of the hurricane models are strong TS or Cat 1 for top strength....but who knows we've seen some of these go to town very quickly.