bluewave Posted Sunday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:45 PM 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: What we talked about a few days ago is becoming reality. The tropical system is going to curve into the central US. If we had an actual Atlantic hurricane season the block might help swing a system into us. But unfortunately The Atlantic is out of business this season Full suppression mode with one the lowest daily -NAO readings for the month of September coming up with the near record +49 dm Greenland Block. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted Sunday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:01 PM Down down yellow and brown. All the leaves are falling down. Driving around coastal NJ it's really really really dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:34 PM Only hope for rain is Wednesday. The gulf system won’t effect us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:42 PM Euro continues to have very little rain for Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:47 PM Pain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:55 PM 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro continues to have very little rain for Wednesday Considering it's recent performance maybe that's a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted Sunday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:11 PM 29 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro continues to have very little rain for Wednesday euro said we would get good rain from the coastal storm and we never did.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 06:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:32 PM 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Considering it's recent performance maybe that's a good thing 19 minutes ago, nycwinter said: euro said we would get good rain from the coastal storm and we never did.. Agreed, but it’s idea of the block eating up Wednesday rain looks reasonable to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted Sunday at 07:22 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 07:22 PM The EPS is wetter then the op thru 12z next Sunday and shows the potential for at least "some" rain with the heaviest amounts falling to our west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted Sunday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:35 PM Another busted forecast from midrange models as we went from partly to mostly cloudy conditions with temps in low 70s for Fri/Sat/Sun to mostly sunny with highs in the low 80s Fr/Sat and upper 70s Sunday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:40 PM 4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Another busted forecast from midrange models as we went from partly to mostly cloudy conditions with temps in low 70s for Fri/Sat/Sun to mostly sunny with highs in the low 80s Fr/Sat and upper 70s Sunday More sun and dry conditions pretty much always mean temps will overperform 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:48 PM 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Full suppression mode with one the lowest daily -NAO readings for the month of September coming up with the near record +49 dm Greenland Block. We need this in 4 months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 08:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:08 PM It'll still be interesting if Helene (to be) truly avoids bringing rains to the area. THis can go from quite dry to very wet with a few changes in the flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Sunday at 08:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:18 PM 9 minutes ago, SACRUS said: It'll still be interesting if Helene (to be) truly avoids bringing rains to the area. THis can go from quite dry to very wet with a few changes in the flow. Agreed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted Sunday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:23 PM We'll see how this next week turns out but I really cant recall such a dry pattern lasting this long, with so many nearby systems being blocked. It does seem rather unique. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted Sunday at 08:38 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 08:38 PM 13 minutes ago, doncat said: We'll see how this next week turns out but I really cant recall such a dry pattern lasting this long, with so many nearby systems being blocked. It does seem rather unique. Yeah we are basically just about a month into this dry pattern. Eventually the pendulum has to swing the other way. The question is when will it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Sunday at 08:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:54 PM A generally pleasant temperature regime will continue through most or all of the week. Temperatures could top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the middle of the week before a slow warming trend commences afterward. Showers are likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Some uncertainty still exists concerning rainfall amounts. In the Southwest and parts of California, yet more excessive heat will develop early this week. Parts of the region could see near record to record high temperatures on one or more days during the week. Phoenix could even see its highest temperatures so late in the season. Early long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly (2010), as was the case with the September 20th teleconnections. The NAO fell to a preliminary -1.909 today. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was -1.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.493 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.0° (0.2° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 08:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:55 PM Fwiw nam is pretty wet Wednesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Sunday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:02 PM Trees are rapidly turning color and dropping leaves now. Unwatered lawns are crunchy brown. Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 11:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:00 PM Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (1970) NYC: 95 (1914) LGA: 93 (1970) JFK: 91 (1980) Lows: EWR: 44 (1997) NYC: 41 (1904) LGA: 47 (1962) JFK: 41 (1962) Historical: 1890 - A severe hailstorm struck Strawberry, AZ. Fives days after the storm hail still lay in drifts 12 to 18 inches deep. (The Weather Channel) 1913 - Des Moines, IA, experienced their earliest freeze of record. (The Weather Channel) 1961 - Hurricane Esther made a near complete circle south of Cape Cod. The hurricane then passed over Cape Cod and hit Maine. Its energy was largely spent over the North Atlantic Ocean, however, heavy rains over Maine resulted in widespread local flooding of cellars, low roads, and underpasses. (David Ludlum) 1983 - Forty-one cities reported record cold temperatures during the morning. Houston, TX, hit 50 degrees, and Williston ND plunged to 19 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Hurricane Emily, the first hurricane to roam the Carribean in nearly six years, made landfall over the Dominican Republic late in the day, packing 125 mph winds. Emily killed three persons and caused thirty million dollars damage. A record high of 92 degrees at Miami FL was their fifth in a row. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - An early morning thunderstorm produced baseball size hail at Plainview, in Hale County TX. Late in the evening more thunderstorms in the Southern High Plains Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Plainview TX and Crosby TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Hugo quickly lost strength over South Carolina, but still was a tropical storm as it crossed into North Carolina, just west of Charlotte, at about 7 AM. Winds around Charlotte reached 69 mph, with gusts to 99 mph. Eighty percent of the power was knocked out to Charlotte and Mecklenburg County. Property damage in North Carolina was 210 million dollars, and damage to crops was 97 million dollars. The strongest storm surge occurred along the southern coast shortly after midnight, reaching nine feet above sea level at ocean Isle and Sunset Beach. Hugo killed one person and injured fifteen others in North Carolina. Strong northwesterly winds ushered unseasonably cold air into the north central U.S., in time for the official start of autumn, at 8" 20 PM (CDT). Squalls produced light snow in northern Wisconsin. Winds in Wisconsin gusted to 52 mph at Rhinelander. (Storm Data) (The Nati 2005 - For the first time in the historical record, two hurricanes reached category-5 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico in a single season as Hurricane Rita intensified before making landfall (Katrina and Rita). 2006 - The tristate area of Missouri, Illinois, and Kentucky was struck by the worst tornado outbreak in the recorded history during the month of September. One supercell produced a long-track F4 tornado across southeastern Missouri into southwestern Illinois. This tornado traveled 27.5 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Sunday at 11:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:56 PM 73 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Monday at 12:20 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:20 AM Highs: PHL: 79 EWR: 77 JFK: 77 TTN: 77 New Brnswck 77 TEB: 76 ISP: 76 ACY: 75 LGA: 74 NYC: 74 BLM: 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 12:23 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:23 AM 18z euro dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Monday at 12:41 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:41 AM 43 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z euro dry The Euro, CMC, and UKMET don’t have much rain. So the GFS is the only regular global trying to show a PRE-like feature Wed into Thurs. It’s still an outlier compared to the other globals. GFS only global that tries to connect front to Helene also much deeper GEM more separate and weaker system like Euro and UKMET 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 01:10 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:10 AM 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro, CMC, and UKMET don’t have much rain. So the GFS is the only regular global trying to show a PRE-like feature Wed into Thurs. It’s still an outlier compared to the other globals. GFS only global that tries to connect front to Helene also much deeper GEM more separate and weaker system like Euro and UKMET I think our rain will come first week of October. Either from something under the block or Atlantic hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted Monday at 01:14 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:14 AM On 9/20/2024 at 1:19 PM, Monty said: It will be interesting if we get an early Frost and leaf fall, what that will mean for trees and shrubs if shallow rooted hardwoods don't get a drink for the last 45 days of the growing season. As others have noted there's a corridor in between Flemington and Princeton that have missed almost all the rain this summer, and now this. Hopewell-Montgomery area starting to look like the moon. Early leaves starting ti change here in Westchester south of 287. That is normal by historic standards, but early by 2010s standards. So yes, leave change is early this year. Dry and Cool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Monday at 10:47 AM Share Posted Monday at 10:47 AM 9 hours ago, Allsnow said: I think our rain will come first week of October. Either from something under the block or Atlantic hurricane Yeah, the outlier GFS joined the less wet Euro, CMC, UKMET consensus with no connection between the tropical system and the cold front Wed into Thurs. New GFS run no moisture connection like other models 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Monday at 01:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:24 PM 64 / 43 cloudy. Some spotty showers in drizzle in PA. Perhaps someone gets a trace later but nothing of substance. Cloudy Tue - Thu. Pending on the Helene evolution and track the coming weekend could be dry. You wonder if warmer / humid air comes up with Helene to notch up temps in the later week / weekend period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Monday at 01:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:25 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Monday at 01:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:26 PM Deluge not to ditsant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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