September 2024

[Allsnow]

Euro flexes the block 

[Rjay]

Tropical system runs into a wall in the gfs

 

 

[bluewave]

This may be the first time I can remember seeing surface high pressure build west from Newfoundland to north of the Great Lakes. The highs usually start out north of the Great Lakes and move off the coast a few days later. So this really isn’t a typical looking set up. Just goes to show how extreme these blocking patterns are getting. It’s no wonder there are a number of models showing a dry slot near the area with heavier totals east and west. 
 

 

[Rjay]

Lol the canadian

 

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air will arrive overnight. Temperatures could top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s through most of next week before a slow warming trend commences. Showers are also possible during the second half of next week.

In the Southwest and parts of California, yet more excessive heat could develop early next week. Parts of the region could see near record to record high temperatures on one or more days next week.

Early long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly (2010), as was the case with the September 20th teleconnections.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +1.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.603 today. That is the second lowest value for September 21. Only September 21, 2010 (-2.675) had a lower value. That is also the fifth lowest value for any September day.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.9° (0.3° below normal).

 

[Allsnow]

This is awful 

 

driest September on record might be come 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This is awful 

 

driest September on record might be come 

18z gfs has rain

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

18z gfs has rain

Then this lol

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 90 (1940)
NYC: 95 (1895)
LGA: 89 (1940)
JFK: 85 (2016)


Lows: 

EWR: 39 (1956)
NYC: 40 (1871)
LGA" 43 (1956)
JFK: 42 (1962)

Historical:

 

1894 - A heavy chicken house, sixteen by sixteen feet in area, was picked up by a tornado and wedged between two trees. The hens were found the next day sitting on their eggs in the chicken house, with no windows broken, as though nothing had happened. (The Weather Channel)

1894: A late season severe weather outbreak occurred across northwest Iowa, south central Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin during the late evening hours. Several communities were impacted by this outbreak with an estimated 55 to 65 deaths, and in additional 300 injuries. The strongest tornado was an estimated F5, which tore through the counties of Kossuth, Hancock, Winnebago in Iowa, and Faribault in Minnesota.

1924 - A couple of tornadoes, one rated F4 and the other F5, tore paths of devastation through Eau Claire, Clark, and Taylor Counties in Wisconsin. The death toll was 18 and 50 people were injured.

1924: A couple of tornadoes, one rated F4 and the other F5, tore paths of devastation through Eau Claire, Clark, and Taylor Counties in Wisconsin. The death toll was 18 and 50 people were injured. 

1938 - A great hurricane smashed into Long Island and bisected New England causing a massive forest blowdown and widespread flooding. Winds gusted to 186 mph at Blue Hill MA, and a storm surge of nearly thirty feet caused extensive flooding along the coast of Rhode Island. The hurricane killed 600 persons and caused 500 million dollars damage. The hurricane, which lasted twelve days, destroyed 275 million trees. Hardest hit were Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Long Island NY. The ""Long Island Express"" produced gargantuan waves with its 150 mph winds, waves which smashed against the New England shore with such force that earthquake-recording machines on the Pacific coast clearly showed the shock of each wave. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1938: On this day, one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history struck Long Island and Southern New England. This Category 3 Hurricane was traveling at 47 mph when it made landfall near Bellport, New York. This storm caused at least 600 deaths and left approximately 63,000 homeless.

1954 - The temperature at Deeth, NV, soared from a morning low of 12 degrees to a high of 87 degrees, a record daily warm-up for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Tropical Storm Emily, which formed in the Carribean the previous afternoon, caused considerable damage to the banana industry of Saint Vincent in the Windward Islands. Unseasonably hot weather continued in Florida and the western U.S. Redding CA and Red Bluff CA, with record highs of 108 degrees, tied for honors as the hot spot in the nation. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds and locally heavy rain in the southwestern U.S. One thunderstorm in west Texas produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Dell City completely destroying an airport hangar. A Cessna 150 aircraft housed within the hangar was flipped over and snapped in two. Thunderstorms produced large hail in east central Utah, while snow blanketed some of the higher elevations of the state. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Hurricane Hugo slammed into the South Carolina coast about 11 PM, making landfall near Sullivans Island. Hurricane Hugo was directly responsible for thirteen deaths, and indirectly responsible for twenty-two others. A total of 420 persons were injured in the hurricane, and damage was estimated at eight billion dollars, including two billion dollars damage to crops. Sustained winds reached 85 mph at Folly Beach SC, with wind gusts as high was 138 mph. Wind gusts reached 98 mph at Charleston, and 109 mph at Shaw AFB. The biggest storm surge occurred in the McClellanville and Bulls Bay area of Charleston County, with a storm surge of 20.2 feet reported at Seewee Bay. Shrimp boats were found one half mile inland at McClellanville. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

 

EWR: 83
New Brnswck: 82
PHL: 81
JFK: 81
TTN: 81
ACY: 81
TEB: 79
NYC: 79
BLM: 77
LGA: 77
ISP: 73
 

[lee59]

75 the high here today

[psv88]

73 today

[MJO812]

Alot of rain up the coast with the big shift east on the gfs with the hurricane. 

[bluewave]

Plenty of rain out on Cape Cod with over 6.00” as the low cutoff under the record block.

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Models wildly shifting run to run in under 4 days. No consistency whatsoever 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models wildly shifting run to run in under 4 days. No consistency whatsoever 

Who would have thought it would be so difficult to get another tropical system up here after Debby. 

[Allsnow]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Who would have thought it would be so difficult to get another tropical system up here after Debby. 

Rain chances fading fast for next week 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Rain chances fading fast for next week 

Places like Newark are on track for one of their driest Septembers on record.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	0.08	9
2	1941	0.14	0
3	2005	0.45	0
4	1951	0.95	0
5	1972	1.03	0
6	1948	1.14	0
-	1939	1.14	0
7	1931	1.19	0
8	1953	1.25	0
9	1964	1.30	0
10	1967	1.35	0

[SACRUS]

 

63 / 55 low level clouds with some scattered showers having moved through DE/SNJ.  Clear out and warms up to upper 70s / near 80.  Continue to have a struggle honing in on where the cut off and any subsequent remnants from the GOM tropical storm. The period Tue - Fri still the time to watch for the next rains in the area.  Overall warmer the final week of the month.

 

[SACRUS]

 

The GOM system now with a grater than 60% of development.

 

[TWCCraig]

If the rain chances this upcoming week don't pan out, there's a chance for many spots to have their driest September on record. This could also end up being one of the driest months ever. ISP currently only has 0.06" of precip for September, record for the driest month is 0.18" set in October 2000 and August 1964. NYC is currently tied for 5th driest month ever

NYC:

Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year-Month	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1949-06	0.02	0
2	1963-10	0.14	0
3	1995-08	0.18	0
4	1884-09	0.21	0
5	2024-09	0.24	9
-	1964-08	0.24	0

ISP:

Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year-Month	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2024-09	0.06	9
2	2000-10	0.18	0
-	1964-08	0.18	0
4	2013-10	0.22	0
5	1963-10	0.24	0

[Rtd208]

Have to keep on eye on the rain potential along the east coast this coming week thru next weekend and maybe a little beyond. There could be some serious flooding issues in some areas. For the NYC metro region it will potentially be the first substantial precipitation event we have seen in almost a month.

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Places like Newark are on track for one of their driest Septembers on record.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	0.08	9
2	1941	0.14	0
3	2005	0.45	0
4	1951	0.95	0
5	1972	1.03	0
6	1948	1.14	0
-	1939	1.14	0
7	1931	1.19	0
8	1953	1.25	0
9	1964	1.30	0
10	1967	1.35	0

What we talked about a few days ago is becoming reality. The tropical system is going to curve into the central US. 
 

If we had an actual Atlantic hurricane season the block might help swing a system into us. But unfortunately The Atlantic is out of business this season 

[Brian5671]

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

What we talked about a few days ago is becoming reality. The tropical system is going to curve into the central US. 
 

If we had an actual Atlantic hurricane season the block might help swing a system into us. But unfortunately The Atlantic is out of business this season 

Only option is for something to form in the eastern carribbean (near where Sandy form) and have it run up the coast.    MDR is done like you said.

[Rjay]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Alot of rain up the coast with the big shift east on the gfs with the hurricane. 

 

[forkyfork]

a second gulf hurricane that's rainless here. lol

[Stormlover74]

Gfs very wet. Back and forth we go

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs very wet. Back and forth we go

Gfs is dry with the major hurricane.

[qg_omega]

Top ten day and month, just amazing weather stretch

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is dry with the major hurricane.

Yeah I'm only talking about this week