September 2024

[doncat]

84/65 split today.

[Monty]

This is the third straight mid/late week timeframe where the models had several runs suggesting serious rainfall for NJ/NYC. The first two did not materialize, the ridge won out. Next Wed-Thu we will try again. 

[ForestHillWx]

I know it’s dry, but this has been the nicest September I can remember in some time. I mean gem, after gem. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

8 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

83  / 53 more sun than projected.  Mid 80s today, maybe the warmest to next spring.  Onshore entourage continues keeping it near normal overall the next week.   We'll see if any of the potential tropical system in the GOM and Upper low bring the rain. 

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

I'm getting a feeling of an extremely warm second period in October from around the 6th-10th. We'll see, lots can and will change.

WX/PT

 

[Stormlover74]

 

[cleetussnow]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

Better than the last 2 winters. 

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

I know it’s dry, but this has been the nicest September I can remember in some time. I mean gem, after gem. 

Yeah I completely agree.  Reminds me of October '21, albeit a month earlier.  

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

EWR: 87
JFK: 87
PHL: 87
New Brnswck: 85
TEB: 85
TTN: 85
LGA: 85
ACY: 84
ISP: 84
NYC: 84
BLM: 83

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Better than the last 2 winters. 

Alaska cold is our nemesis. We want to see them bake. 
Keeping expectations low… it’s almost a lock for an above normal temp winter but we can always sneak in a well timed juiced up system. 

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Alaska cold is our nemesis. We want to see them bake. 
Keeping expectations low… it’s almost a lock for an above normal temp winter but we can always sneak in a well timed juiced up system. 

We have a better chance this winter with the Nina not being strong.

[doncat]

We'll see...For next week.

[bluewave]

Big drop in soil moisture since early September. So the warmth on sunny days like yesterday has been overperforming. It’s possible that we could see temperatures into the 80s even into early October. Long range guidance is indicating a warm pattern that will get an assist from the very dry conditions over the Midwest.

New soil moisture 

Old soil moisture 

 

 

[jm1220]

9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

Typical cut and paste Nina map. But of course it hasn’t been wrong the last nearly 10 winters, the N Plains and Rockies are the place that has remained cold and rest of the country warm. 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

We'll see...For next week.

Hopefully the 06z gfs is wrong. It has <.5" it's entire run

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hopefully the 06z gfs is wrong. It has <.5" it's entire run

Missing to the east and west the next two days. Boston getting rain today and DCA tonight… ugh 

[the_other_guy]

Euro was worst model. Which one nailed everything well east?

 

Good to know for fall/winter storms coming

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Euro was worst model. Which one nailed everything well east?

 

Good to know for fall/winter storms coming

3K NAM very good

[FPizz]

13 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm getting a feeling of an extremely warm second period in October from around the 6th-10th. We'll see, lots can and will change.

WX/PT

 

great call on this week being dry

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Euro was worst model. Which one nailed everything well east?

 

Good to know for fall/winter storms coming

The Euro has been struggling with East Coast low tracks since the blizzard miss in January 2015. The model had the big win with Sandy’s track back in 2012 and was the first model to show the Nemo phase in February 2013. This lead to the model taking on a legendary status. But there appears to have been some upgrades in 14 and 15 which caused it to struggle. The next big error was with the historic Jan 2016 snowstorm. Was too suppressed with the heavy snows forecast to remain to our south. Then other issues with low tracks being too close to the coast like the other day have been occurring. A suppressed bias has also been occurring like in early February 2021 and other more recent events. Not sure exactly changed with the model. It’s a bit unusual that it’s the top scoring model for North America and the world. But it struggles with East Coast storm tracks. Would be nice if we had someone from the modeling center join these threads and go over what they think is the issue. My guess is that it’s related to the convection scheme and interactions with the Gulf Stream and the North American landmass to the West. 

[winterwx21]

53 minutes ago, FPizz said:

great call on this week being dry

And he also called for warmer than normal temps this week when other forecasts were cooler. Great job by WX/PT! 

We won't see 87 like yesterday, but another warm one today. It's 80 degrees here right now. 

[FPizz]

12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And he also called for warmer than normal temps this week when other forecasts were cooler. Great job by WX/PT! 

We won't see 87 like yesterday, but another warm one today. It's 80 degrees here right now. 

Yup, agreed.  78 here right now.  

[Allsnow]

Models starting to loose the rain next week as the block is to strong 

[Monty]

16 hours ago, Monty said:

This is the third straight mid/late week timeframe where the models had several runs suggesting serious rainfall for NJ/NYC. The first two did not materialize, the ridge won out. Next Wed-Thu we will try again. 

And just like that the GFS12z says it doesn't rain the entire length of the run. Cool, cool

[Monty]

It will be interesting if we get an early Frost and leaf fall, what that will mean for trees and shrubs if shallow rooted hardwoods don't get a drink for the last 45 days of the growing season. As others have noted there's a corridor in between Flemington and Princeton that have missed almost all the rain this summer, and now this. Hopewell-Montgomery area starting to look like the moon.

[Brian5671]

Need one of these tropical threats to pan out-some remnant rains would do the trick...

[SACRUS]

 

81 / 60 partly cloudy.  Looks like a nice weekend coming up and through Monday before potential break in the dryness between Tue - Sat next week, upper low / trough move through.

 

[bluewave]

47 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Models starting to loose the rain next week as the block is to strong 

Not surprising given that the nearly 580 dm ridge over Greenland is one of the strongest on record for this time of year.

 

[Rtd208]

We have had overall quiet weather around here since the tail end August. We will have to see if rain/storm chances increase as we head  into the last 10 days of the month.

[Brian5671]

beautiful block just 4 months too early LOL

[donsutherland1]

It will be variably cloudy and somewhat cooler tomorrow and Saturday. A few showers are possible on parts of Long Island and eastern Connecticut. A fresh shot of cooler air could arrive for Sunday. Temperatures could top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the middle of next week before a slow warming trend commences. Showers are also possible during the second half of next week.

Early long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly (2010), as was the case with the September 20th teleconnections.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +3.69 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.389 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.8° (0.4° below normal).