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8 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

When does this stuck up pattern get a laxative , early october . beyond this?

 

test8.gif

I'm going to guess based on what I see, maybe early October 50% chance then the stuck up pattern reloads for most of October and a complete break from this pattern in late October or early November.

WX/PT

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Some moisture from the southeast will likely bring showers and perhaps some periods of rain to the northern Mid-Atlantic region tomorrow. Showers could persist into Friday. Rainfall amounts from New York City northward have fallen in the recent guidance as the high to the north turns out somewhat stronger and more expansive than modeled during recent days.

In terms of dry weather regionally, today is on track to become Boston's 28th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. That would be tied for the 5th longest dry stretch on record. Records go back to 1872. Some of the guidance brings light but measurable rainfall to Boston tomorrow or Thursday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -5.17 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.871 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.7° (0.4° below normal).

 

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