Allsnow Posted Monday at 04:21 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:21 AM 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted Monday at 06:20 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 06:20 AM 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Next Well the Euro op went all in. Not sure I am buying it yet but here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted Monday at 08:06 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 08:06 AM EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Monday at 11:10 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:10 AM 15 hours ago, MANDA said: Kind of glad in a way. Has been way to warm for me recently and sunny day after sunny day is getting boring as well. I could some cooler and cloudy days. away! I think this is why we have been getting the big model flips from run to run with the rainfall forecasts. Very strong blocking over SE Canada and New England. Cutoff lows underneath are notoriously difficult for models to forecast. This general pattern looks to continue for at least the next 10 days. Even day 11-15 there is some indication that it may try to continue with lows riding north but perhaps weaker high pressure over New England. Another example of the stuck weather patterns of recent years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Monday at 11:19 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:19 AM 4 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Well the Euro op went all in. Not sure I am buying it yet but here it is. It has another low developing, not sure I buy it. New GFS has gotten wetter. A very difficult pattern to forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted Monday at 11:46 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:46 AM 25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It has another low developing, not sure I buy it. New GFS has gotten wetter. A very difficult pattern to forecast Overall it looks like we are going to get at least some rain. How much is the big question right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 12:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:07 PM 20 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Overall it looks like we are going to get at least some rain. How much is the big question right now. 06z euro dry as a bone 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 12:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:10 PM If we have the big high pressure to our north, I doubt we get much. We’ve seen time and again waves of rain or snow get eaten up in confluence as they try to make it to our latitude. The high has to weaken and flow in the mid levels turn to southerly. If it comes from a dry direction confluence will just eat up the rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 01:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:08 PM 57 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If we have the big high pressure to our north, I doubt we get much. We’ve seen time and again waves of rain or snow get eaten up in confluence as they try to make it to our latitude. The high has to weaken and flow in the mid levels turn to southerly. If it comes from a dry direction confluence will just eat up the rain. As @bluewave said the pattern is stuck, so hopefully the high weakens enough to allow beneficial rainfall to get up here by the weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 01:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:11 PM 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: As @bluewave said the pattern is stuck, so hopefully the high weakens enough to allow beneficial rainfall to get up here by the weekend I can't believe the euro is waffling this much 48 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 01:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:13 PM 6z and 18z Euro runs are drier while 12z and 0z are wetter....going back last 2 days or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 01:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:15 PM 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I can't believe the euro is waffling this much 48 hours out. Has a winter storm type feel with all the waffling and uncertainty. I think this was the first 06z gfs run in days that brought beneficial rains up here on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 01:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:38 PM 22 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Has a winter storm type feel with all the waffling and uncertainty. I think this was the first 06z gfs run in days that brought beneficial rains up here on Wednesday 3 to 5 feet of snow or flurries 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted Monday at 01:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:42 PM 0.58" rain past 28 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Monday at 02:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:15 PM 72 / 58 more clouds today but partly cloudy mid / upper 70s pending on that sunshine. Hung up patter going from days of sun to days of clouds and maybe light rain on onshore flow Tue - Fri. Heaviest seems south or east but we'll see a general 0.75 - 1.00 over the period. Ridging over the top continues easterly flow through the next week. Clouds in the way and keeping it near normal / below. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Monday at 02:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:16 PM Cusp of some heavy rains in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Monday at 02:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:16 PM Hung up pattern till close of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Monday at 02:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:44 PM Winds out of an easterly quadrant for virtually the entire month. Amazing. I still think any rain amounts in the NYC Metro would likely be on the lighter side this week. Next week maybe better. Temperatures continue above normal but not as much so. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted Monday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:54 PM 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: 3 to 5 feet of snow or flurries Depends on where the banding sets up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:43 PM Rgem has been pretty consistent with half inch or more with some heavier bands west of the area. Nam has been consistently dry though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted Monday at 03:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:44 PM 57 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Winds out of an easterly quadrant for virtually the entire month. Amazing. I still think any rain amounts in the NYC Metro would likely be on the lighter side this week. Next week maybe better. Temperatures continue above normal but not as much so. WX/PT I tend to agree we end up with some showers. Heavy rain stays south. We are better off starting of with light rain anyway as very heavy rain would tend to run right off the dry hard soil causing potential flash flooding problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:00 PM 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem has been pretty consistent with half inch or more with some heavier bands west of the area. Nam has been consistently dry though Icon has good amounts from 95-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:35 PM October might start chilly in the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:56 PM Round and Round we go.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:16 PM 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Round and Round we go.... A lighter rain event would be ideal. We don’t need another 6”+ deluge that would cause more flash flooding. Parts of Stony Brook University are still closed from the last one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 06:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:32 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted Monday at 07:24 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 07:24 PM A bit wetter then the Euro Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:26 PM 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: A bit wetter then the Euro Op. Winter pattern coming with suppression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 08:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:24 PM NAM way north now lol S NJ went from nothing to 2-4 inches of rain in 1 run on a 48 hr forecast-someone needs to put this model out of it's misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Monday at 09:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:14 PM Dry conditions will likely persist into late tomorrow or tomorrow night. Afterward, moisture from the southeast will likely bring showers and some periods of rain to the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Showers could persist into Friday. Total rainfall from late Tuesday into Friday should average about 0.25"-0.75" in an around New York City (lesser amounts to the north and east of the City) and 0.50"-1.50" in Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, DC. In terms of dry weather regionally, today is on track to become Boston's 27th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. That would be the 6th longest dry stretch on record. Records go back to 1872. Some of the guidance brings light but measurable rainfall to Boston Wednesday or Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was -5.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.622 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.8° (0.3° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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