IrishRob17 Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Disgusting outside A black and red flannel and jeans were a bad call to go apple picking? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 86 / 61 matching Sep 1 high so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 82 out here. Hate the NE/E wind though. Makes docking horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 The weekend got off to a pleasantly warm start. It will end with a continuation of the recent comfortable readings. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than they were today. Generally near normal to somewhat above normal temperatures will likely persist through the third week of September, if not longer. Excessive heat is unlikely. Dry conditions will likely persist into at least the middle of next week. Afterward, some moisture from the southeast could try to move into the area, but its progress northward remains somewhat uncertain given an expected strong ridge to the North. Nevertheless, some showers and perhaps periods of rain are possible, especially from New York City southward. Should the ridging wind up weaker than currently modeled, a more significant rainfall would be possible. In terms of dry weather regionally, today is on track to become Boston's 25th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. That would be tied for the 7th longest dry stretch on record. Records go back to 1872. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was -2.91 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.212 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.3° (0.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 Womp womp 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: A black and red flannel and jeans were a bad call to go apple picking? Not that I should speak on how to dress, I claim that plaid below the waist (at least for men) is a fashion faux pas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 14 Share Posted September 14 On 9/4/2024 at 10:12 AM, bluewave said: This could be the first time in the 2020s that the highest September temperature at Newark comes after September 15th. The high for the month so far at Newark was 86° on September 1st. Newark hasn’t had a September high this low since 2009. The cooler pattern is forecast to continue another week or so before we warm up later in the month. That’s when Newark has a chance to surpass the 86° high on the 1st. Newark warmest September temperatures 9-6-23….97° 9-4-22….93° 9-15-21….91° 9-3-20…..89° Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep max temperatureClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024 86 27 2023 97 0 2022 93 0 2021 91 0 2020 89 0 2019 93 0 2018 98 0 2017 92 0 2016 94 0 2015 98 0 2014 95 0 2013 96 0 2012 92 0 2011 88 0 2010 98 0 2009 86 0 By one degree but a few days early. THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 14 2024... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2024 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 87 212 PM 94 2016 79 8 81 MINIMUM 63 547 AM 45 1975 62 1 63 AVERAGE 75 70 5 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Womp womp Good practice for winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good practice for winter If we have a pattern like that in a Nina winter where we’re not screaming every low into the Lakes or New England I’d consider that a win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 18z euro is further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If we have a pattern like that in a Nina winter where we’re not screaming every low into the Lakes or New England I’d consider that a win. Yeah I mean normally seeing the gfs suppressed 3 days out in the winter is a good thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 Highs EWR: 87 PHL: 87 New Brnswck: 85 TEB: 85 JFK: 85 TTN: 85 ISP: 84 NYC: 83 LGA: 82 BLM: 80 ACY: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 15 Share Posted September 15 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Yeah I mean normally seeing the gfs suppressed 3 days out in the winter is a good thing 18z euro and eps further north. Good rainfall area wide 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Sunday at 04:19 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:19 AM The big low in the north Atlantic will locks in the high pressure ridge and in turn does not allow the significant rainfall to get any further north or northeast. The coastal low will heads out to sea from this point. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024091500/gfs_z500_mslp_atl_21.png 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 04:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:45 AM Ukie and cmc much wetter than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 11:44 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:44 AM 6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Ukie and cmc much wetter than the gfs Cmon euro!! but we have been let down by it so many times inside 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 11:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:45 AM Just now, Allsnow said: Cmon euro!! but we have been let down by it so many times inside 3 days 0z good. 06z no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Sunday at 11:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:48 AM The cool pattern during the last week of May that I pointed signaled Newark not getting to 40 days reaching 90° this year. Most of the past Nino to Nina transitions like 2016 and 2010 made it to 40 days and were much warmer the last week of May. This is a result of the much stronger sea breezes than usual this summer. Notice how Harrison just inland from Newark further from the bay made to 41 days. It was also much warmer the last week of May than the airport. This is a rare event for Harrison going over 40 and Newark staying under. Data for May 25, 2024 through May 31, 2024 HARRISON COOP 88 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 87 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 87 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 86 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 86 CT DANBURY COOP 85 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 84 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 84 Number of 90° days Data for January 1, 2024 through September 14, 2024Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 41 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 37 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 33 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 33 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 31 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 12:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:01 PM 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 0z good. 06z no Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Sunday at 12:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:07 PM models playing the bounce around game-in the end it usually ends up further north.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 12:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:09 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 12:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:14 PM 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep has been a very boring month. Autumn is usually is boring . Fast forward to December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:54 PM 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep has been a very boring month. Autumn is usually is boring . Fast forward to December. My early guess is winter will be disappointing. Hopefully, we get 2-3 weeks of legit winter like conditions 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted Sunday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:55 PM Lots of oaks browning out and dropping leaves around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 01:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:02 PM 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The cool pattern during the last week of May that I pointed signaled Newark not getting to 40 days reaching 90° this year. Most of the past Nino to Nina transitions like 2016 and 2010 made it to 40 days and were much warmer the last week of May. This is a result of the much stronger sea breezes than usual this summer. Notice how Harrison just inland from Newark further from the bay made to 41 days. It was also much warmer the last week of May than the airport. This is a rare event for Harrison going over 40 and Newark staying under. Data for May 25, 2024 through May 31, 2024 HARRISON COOP 88 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 87 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 87 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 86 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 86 CT DANBURY COOP 85 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 84 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 84 Number of 90° days Data for January 1, 2024 through September 14, 2024Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 41 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 37 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 33 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 33 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 31 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 30 8 days at 89 degrees sealed the deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 01:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:05 PM 70 / 63 some clouds E - W moving through. Partly cloudy in the step down . Low / mid 80s and dry. One more dry/warm day on Monday sunny and highs near 80 / low 80s. Tue - Fri clouds and showers and watch where the steady rain setups. Ridging over the top sends high pressure down later Friday and the upcoming weeked with NE flow (cooler) but drier again into early the week of 9/23. Ridge into the east and perhaps a warmer more W flow (SW/NW) to clsoe the month. Overall warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:07 PM Continued ridging north and over with onshore flow, ridge does center south towards the 24/25 with more westerly flow on guidance and close out much warmer this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted Sunday at 01:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:09 PM 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: My early guess is winter will be disappointing. Hopefully, we get 2-3 weeks of legit winter like conditions Seems that way..Glad I'm in Central PA now. where climo. gives us more snow threats than the coast(South shore of Long Island formally)..But even here it's been way below normal the last 3 or 4 years. I guess these days it's hope for the best ,and see what you can get 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 01:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:19 PM 9 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Seems that way..Glad I'm in Central PA now. where climo. gives us more snow threats than the coast(South shore of Long Island formally)..But even here it's been way below normal the last 3 or 4 years. I guess these days it's hope for the best ,and see what you can get Last winter was mild and ugly but somehow I got over 20 inches for the season. We got lucky with 12 inches of fluff on 2/17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 01:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:21 PM 24 minutes ago, FPizz said: Lots of oaks browning out and dropping leaves around here Yes!!! The one in front of my house is dropping acorns and leaves like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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