September 2024

[psv88]

80 today. Another perfect weather day 

[winterwarlock]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

People that mow lawns for their business/have to water alot of plants for a business or park/garden might care.  But otherwise I hear ya-enjoy the perfect weather.

meh its already mid september...leaves start in a few weeks, we can survive 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:


 

TEB: 87
PHL: 83
EWR: 82
New Brnswck: 81
TTN: 81
LGA: 81
NYC: 80
ACY: 78
JFK: 78
BLM: 76
ISP: 76

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

12 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

People that mow lawns for their business/have to water alot of plants for a business or park/garden might care.  But otherwise I hear ya-enjoy the perfect weather.

Exactly, being a horticulturalist drought is my least favorite weather. This weekend I’m sure people will really start to notice as even weeds on the side of roads are starting to brown out. Luckily we are in a lower sun angle time of year, had this been may or June we have actual problems. 

[Brian5671]

GFS/Euro very wet starting next Wed.    CMC keeps it south.

-

Edit: I mixed it up-CMC is wet, Euro is south.

[Rjay]

[Rtd208]

The EPS is a bit further north. 

[bluewave]

Places in Canada that recently saw the record early snow will also have the highest departures as these over the top warm ups have become the new normal.

 

 

[Allsnow]

Send rain please 

[the_other_guy]

this isnt a drought.

Perhaps people have gotten used to a constant deluge of rain that has been our way the last several years.

I invite you to go out west to places that are really in a drought.

I remind you of years like 1995 here when we were really in a drought.

 

Perspective. 

[SACRUS]

 

59 / 58 and sunny.  Record skipping with another mostly sunny dry day - tack on at least 3 more Sat, Sun and Mon.   Warm low - mid 80s  with saturday the warmest day and if mostly sunny some of the warmer spot to the upper 80s as flow comes around more dform the west.   Trough east, Francines decaying remnants in the middle and ridge northeast with cut off near the south east.  By Tuesday some showers/rain nearby, we'll see if it gets to cnj and north.  GFS wetter than euro where the cut off stalls will be wet.  This hung up pattern is one that things stick around a while whether its nice weather or wet weather. 

Beyond next week,  overall warm some semblance a trough moving into the GL - ridge EC, would imply a change to wetter overall too.  Clods to MD

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Getting closer

 

[bluewave]

We’ll gladly take some drier weather up here as parts of CT have seen over 100” of precipitation since last July. Some spots in Rockland are also getting close. In NJ the areas around 90” are north of 80. So I can see how areas south of 80 haven’t been able to get the amounts the areas further north did. Even though Central NJ has had great long term totals, they have been in and out of short term soil moisture dryness. Mainly a function of how hot the summer was. Parts of Central NJ saw their first year with over 20 days reaching 95°. So it’s tough for spots with that much heat not to have the vegetation get dry when much of the convection was riding north of 78 and 80.

 

Data for July 1, 2023 through September 13, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

CT	PROSPECT 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	101.74
CT	NEWTOWN 4.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	98.99
CT	NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE	CoCoRaHS	97.95
CT	BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	97.27
CT	MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W	CoCoRaHS	96.85
CT	SOUTHBURY 2.3 W	CoCoRaHS	96.31
CT	RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE	CoCoRaHS	96.16
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	94.95
CT	WATERBURY 1.3 WNW	CoCoRaHS	94.81
CT	NORTHFORD 0.8 SW	CoCoRaHS	94.53
NY	STONY POINT 0.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	94.26

 

Data for July 1, 2023 through September 13, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	MINE HILL TWP 0.4 NE	CoCoRaHS	91.06
NJ	HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW	COOP	90.12

 

Time Series Summary for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending most 95° days on record

1	2024	21
2	2002	17	0
3	1955	16	8
4	1953	14	0
5	2021	13	0
-	2018	13	1
-	2016	13	2
-	2010	13	4
-	1988	13	0
-	1949	13	0

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

this isnt a drought.

Perhaps people have gotten used to a constant deluge of rain that has been our way the last several years.

I invite you to go out west to places that are really in a drought.

I remind you of years like 1995 here when we were really in a drought.

 

Perspective. 

Right, it’s a dry spell for some (definitely not here and east of here that got drowned a few weeks ago). There are so many ways we get deluged these days that the rain will be back soon. That being said the ridge will likely have to weaken significantly and confluence weaken before much if any rain makes it here. 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

this isnt a drought.

Perhaps people have gotten used to a constant deluge of rain that has been our way the last several years.

I invite you to go out west to places that are really in a drought.

I remind you of years like 1995 here when we were really in a drought.

 

Perspective. 

Yeah we'd need like <1" for the next 3 months and by then it would be winter and nobody would really notice. 2005 had a very dry September before the floodgates opened in October so chances are this will end soon

[IrishRob17]

28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah we'd need like <1" for the next 3 months and by then it would be winter and nobody would really notice. 2005 had a very dry September before the floodgates opened in October so chances are this will end soon

I had .78" for Sept 2005 and then 17.06" in October

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Send rain please 

I am with you on this. I know some people point out that it's far from a drought and fall is here soon anyway, but some of us care about the growing season which goes through October.

Still tomatoes and lots of other stuff in my vegetable garden producing, and now I have fall lettuce out there that will be producing through October.

Of course watering will keep this stuff going, but it's always better to get some rain off and on. VERY dry out there right now and we really could use some rain.

Hopefully next week but it's very questionable whether it will make it this far north. 

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I am with you on this. I know some people point out that it's far from a drought and fall is here soon anyway, but some of us care about the growing season which goes through October.

Still tomatoes and lots of other stuff in my vegetable garden producing, and now I have fall lettuce out there that will be producing through October.

Of course watering will keep this stuff going, but it's always better to get some rain off and on. VERY dry out there right now and we really could use some rain.

Hopefully next week but it's very questionable whether it will make it this far north. 

Know it the time to reseed lawns but with no rain in the forecast it’s not worth it. I get that CT got lots of rain in one day but in general the entire area needs rain 

[FPizz]

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Know it the time to reseed lawns but with no rain in the forecast it’s not worth it. I get that CT got lots of rain in one day but in general the entire area needs rain 

I put down a lot of seed, but am lucky enough to have an irrigation system.  

[NCPOW]

48 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I put down a lot of seed, but am lucky enough to have an irrigation system.  

This. If you have irrigation, this is the best time to have seed down. Controlled watering and no risk of washouts. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, NCPOW said:

This. If you have irrigation, this is the best time to have seed down. Controlled watering and no risk of washouts. 

I still remember the time I seeded my whole yard about a week before Floyd's 10 inches of rain....had to redo it all

[Will - Rutgers]

heavy rain and thunder in new brunswick, few pieces of hail.  radar indicates broad rotation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

jk it’s 80 and sunny what else is new

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Know it the time to reseed lawns but with no rain in the forecast it’s not worth it. I get that CT got lots of rain in one day but in general the entire area needs rain 

That's for sure.  Reseeded twice, the first time right before the semi rainy week about a month ago, and basically nothing germinating, watered every day, starter fertilizer, covered with enriched topsoil, nuthin. Did get some nice spurge, even though I used crabgrass preventer as soon as the forsynthias started to bloom, and then about a month after that.  I beginning to believe sometimes these products are not quite legit?

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I am with you on this. I know some people point out that it's far from a drought and fall is here soon anyway, but some of us care about the growing season which goes through October.

Still tomatoes and lots of other stuff in my vegetable garden producing, and now I have fall lettuce out there that will be producing through October.

Of course watering will keep this stuff going, but it's always better to get some rain off and on. VERY dry out there right now and we really could use some rain.

Hopefully next week but it's very questionable whether it will make it this far north. 

Euro's alone now in showing nothing. Gfs ukie and cmc all have at least a half inch or more

[winterwx21]

51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro's alone now in showing nothing. Gfs ukie and cmc all have at least a half inch or more

And I see the new run of Euro now brings in the rain for Wednesday. Good news. CMC is aggressive in bringing it in Tuesday afternoon. Starting to look better, but a long way to go. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And I see the new run of Euro now brings in the rain for Wednesday. Good news. CMC is aggressive in bringing it in Tuesday afternoon. Starting to look better, but a long way to go. 

Big jump north by some of the model today including the ICON-here's the 12z Euro

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly, being a horticulturalist drought is my least favorite weather. This weekend I’m sure people will really start to notice as even weeds on the side of roads are starting to brown out. Luckily we are in a lower sun angle time of year, had this been may or June we have actual problems. 

Luckily, we haven’t had major drought conditions here since 2002. While the South Shore has had brown lawn episodes from time to time, it was nothing like what we had in 1995, 1999, and early 2000s with those droughts. Plus many times there were watering restrictions in those days so you couldn’t even water in some areas if you wanted to.

But it’s nearly impossible to avoid nuisance soil moisture dry patterns from time to time. We learned this growing up on the South Shore when the sea breeze fronts often favor the North Shore especially early to mid summer.

Long Beach always had issues with trees dropping leaves in the summer . All those Long Beach Sycamores were notorious for early leaf drops before all the Sandy damage. Then nearly all of them that were left had to be removed due to the salt water damage from the surge. The last 15 year period has also featured the most wind damage to trees we have ever seen across the area. So the tree removal and trimming business probably has never been better. We had to have a bunch of trees removed when I was back in SW Suffolk due to wind damage. 
 

 

[RU848789]

9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Send rain please 

No!!!!!!!  We're in OCNJ the next 2 weeks.  At least Sat-Tues looks good...

[Stormlover74]

39 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

No!!!!!!!  We're in OCNJ the next 2 weeks.  At least Sat-Tues looks good...

Looks like rain by Tuesday morning down there. At least it's gone by Wednesday afternoon

[donsutherland1]

Generally near normal to somewhat above normal temperatures will likely persist through the third week of September, if not longer. Excessive heat appears unlikely.

Dry conditions will likely persist into at least the middle of next week. Afterward, some moisture from the southeast could try to move into the area, but its progress northward remains uncertain given an expected strong ridge to the North.

In terms of dry weather regionally, today is on track to become Boston's 24th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. That would be tied for the 8th longest dry stretch on record. Records go back to 1872.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -4.81 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.205 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.4° (0.2° above normal).