September 2024

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, doncat said:

Much better up this way ( SI )with 8.86" for same period .

Parts of Long Island and CT have had 15-20” over the same period.

 

Data for July 13, 2024 through September 12, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	ST. JAMES	COOP	19.35
CT	NEWTOWN 4.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	19.20
NY	PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW	CoCoRaHS	19.11
CT	STAMFORD 1.0 S	CoCoRaHS	17.96
CT	NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE	CoCoRaHS	16.75
NY	SEAFORD 0.4 SE	CoCoRaHS	16.55
CT	SOUTHBURY 2.3 W	CoCoRaHS	16.45
CT	NEWTOWN 5.3 S	CoCoRaHS	15.95
CT	DARIEN 2.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	15.92
CT	MONROE 0.8 W	CoCoRaHS	15.90
CT	RIDGEFIELD 3.7 NNE	CoCoRaHS	15.86
NY	CENTEREACH 1.3 NE	CoCoRaHS	15.64

[Brian5671]

No lack of rain here but it's been bone dry since the big flood.  Had about .50 this last Saturday but that's all dried up at this point.   

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No lack of rain here but it's been bone dry since the big flood.  Had about .50 this last Saturday but that's all dried up at this point.   

Exactly the same here.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No lack of rain here but it's been bone dry since the big flood.  Had about .50 this last Saturday but that's all dried up at this point.   

We have had such a huge surplus of rainfall that everything is just as green and lush looking here as it was before the recent drier period.

[Brian5671]

Just now, bluewave said:

We have such a huge surplus of rainfall that everything is just as green and lush looking as it was before the recent drier period.

Yeah other than lawns it's fine....

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah other than lawns it's fine....

The lawns and all the grass around Tweed look really great. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The lawns and all the grass around Tweed look really great. 

Starting to burn out here especially in south facing full sun spots.     But nothing like the dry summer of 2022.

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Starting to burn out here especially in south facing full sun spots.     But nothing like the dry summer of 2022.

Even the summer of 2022 was nothing like how brown the lawns were back on the Long Island South Shore in July 1999.

 

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Do you have what Allentown is by any chance?

 

Sep 1 - Sep 11

TTN: -4.7
Allentown : -3.0

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Looks like we may have a -NAO with the above:

 

The C3S appears to have a generally negative NAO during December, but it goes positive in January and February if the 500 mb height anomalies are reasonably accurate. A forecast weaker stratospheric polar vortex could facilitate at least periods of NAO-/AO-, if that forecast works out. At this range, there's still very high uncertainty.

[Brian5671]

GFS is further north now for next week-brings rain in starting Wed.

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS is further north now for next week-brings rain in starting Wed.

ICON and CMC too

[Rtd208]

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS is further north now for next week-brings rain in starting Wed.

Yeah I think the verdict is still out on how far north the rain will get with this. Even some of the ensembles were further north then the op runs were overnight. We'll see what happens as we get closer.

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Yeah I think the verdict is still out on how far north the rain will get with this. Even the some of the ensembles were further north then the op runs were overnight. We'll see what happens as we get closer.

Given the tendency for systems to end up further N and W than modeled in the medium/long range I'd be somewhat optimistic that some areas (especially further south) get into some rains.

[bluewave]

Models struggling with the energy digging into the West and the ridge over the Northeast. This is why every run has been different with the rainfall forecast next week. On one hand this ridge has been correcting stronger in the long range. But the other side of the coin is that these shallow drier patterns seldom last long. So a tug of war between these competing patterns.

New run

 

 

Old run

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Noticing a lot more trees with brown leaves

[Allsnow]

39 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Noticing a lot more trees with brown leaves

The tree in front of my house is dropping leaves like crazy because of the recent drought. We need rain 

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, TJW014 said:

Only 2.14" of rain in the last 2 months (since July 13th). Every reasonable shot of rain, pop-up thunderstorm, anything, has avoided Ocean County between NJ-37 and NJ-72. Bone dry. Lawn is dead. Haven't mowed since June.

 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The tree in front of my house is dropping leaves like crazy because of the recent drought. We need rain 

water it lol

[MANDA]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models struggling with the energy digging into the West and the ridge over the Northeast. This is why every run has been different with the rainfall forecast next week. On one hand this ridge has been correcting stronger in the long range. But the other side of the coin is that these brief drier patterns seldom last long. So a tug of war between these competing patterns.

New run

 

 

Old run

 

 

You have to like the upper level low (albeit it weak) in the Ohio Valley to help pull the moisture further northward.  Still a ways out there so we'll see if something close to that holds / persists.

[winterwx21]

56 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Noticing a lot more trees with brown leaves

I hope this long dry stretch isn't gonna mess up the fall foliage season. 

Hopefully the rain next week will make it up here, but I'm skeptical that much will get this far north. I see 12z Euro does get it up to southern NJ. Very early obviously so who knows. 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

You have to like the upper level low (albeit it weak) in the Ohio Valley to help pull the moisture further northward.  Still a ways out there so we'll see if something close to that holds / persists.

If not next week then perhaps some time later in the month. Very rare to get a top 10 driest month these days. But if the WAR keeps flexing then who knows.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	0.08	19
2	1941	0.14	0
3	2005	0.45	0
4	1951	0.95	0
5	1972	1.03	0
6	1948	1.14	0
-	1939	1.14	0
7	1931	1.19	0
8	1953	1.25	0
9	1964	1.30	0
10	1967	1.35	0

[forkyfork]

[Stormlover74]

23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I hope this long dry stretch isn't gonna mess up the fall foliage season. 

Hopefully the rain next week will make it up here, but I'm skeptical that much will get this far north. I see 12z Euro does get it up to southern NJ. Very early obviously so who knows. 

I'm pretty sure its going to. Starting to feel like 2007 where we peaked in mid November 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 95 (1961)
NYC: 94 (1961)
LGA: 94 (1961)
JFK: 91 (1981)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1958)
NYC: 46 (1917)
LGA: 52 (1967)
JFK: 46 (1967)

Historical:

 

1857: The SS Central America sinks during a hurricane, killing 425 lives. Fourteen tons of gold was aboard the ship as well.

1882 - Hot and dry winds caused tree foliage in eastern Kansas to wither and crumble. (David Ludlum)

 

1950: A hailstorm struck southern parts of Oklahoma City on this day. The storm damaged about 4,000 homes, 300 businesses, and 750 cars, resulting in a loss estimated at $987,000.

1963: President Kennedy gave his, “We choose to go to the moon” speech at Rice University.

1977 - Thunderstorms deluged the Kansas City area with torrential rains in the early morning hours, and then again that evening. Some places were deluged with more than six inches of rain twice that day, with up to 18 inches of rain reported at Independence MO. Flooding claimed the lives of 25 persons. The Country Club Plaza area was hardest hit. 2000 vehicles had to be towed following the storm, 150 of which had to be pulled out of Brush Creek, which runs through the Plaza area. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac)

1979 - Hurricane Frederick smashed into the Mobile Bay area of Alabama packing 132 mph winds. Winds gusts to 145 mph were reported as the eye of the hurricane moved over Dauphin Island AL, just west of Mobile. Frederick produced a fifteen foot storm surge near the mouth of Mobile Bay. The hurricane was the costliest in U.S. history causing 2.3 billion dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain which caused flooding in North Carolina, West Virginia, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Parts of Virginia received 3 to 4 inches of rain in just two hours early in the day. Later in the day, three to five inch rains deluged Cumberland County of south central Pennsylvania. Evening thunderstorms produced seven inches of rain at Marysville PA, most of which fell in three hours time. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - An afternoon tornado spawned a tornado which skipped across northern sections of Indianapolis IN damaging roofs and automobiles. It was the first tornado in central Indiana in September in nearly forty years of records. Hurricane Gilbert plowed across the island of Jamaica, and by the end of the day was headed for the Cayman Islands, packing winds of 125 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow whitened the mountains and foothills of northeastern Colorado, with eight inches reported at Buckhorn Mountain, west of Fort Collins. Two to three inches fell around Denver, causing great havoc during the evening rush hour. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region between mid afternoon and early the next morning. Thunderstorms produced hail three inches in diameter at Roswell NM, and wind gusts greater than 98 mph at Henryetta OK. Thunderstorms also produced torrential rains, with more than seven inches at Scotland TX, and more than six inches at Yukon OK. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[donsutherland1]

Generally near normal to somewhat above normal temperatures could persist through at least much of the third week of the month, if not longer. Excessive heat appears unlikely.

Dry conditions will likely persist into at least the middle of next week. Afterward, some moisture from the southeast could try to move into the area, but its progress northward remains uncertain given an expected strong ridge to the North.

In terms of dry weather regionally, today is on track to become Boston's 23rd consecutive day without measurable precipitation. That would be tied for the 9th longest dry stretch on record. Records go back to 1872.

Out West, the pattern responsible for a record hot summer and torrid start to September continues to break down. A series of troughs and possible tropical moisture will move through the region over the next week or two bringing cooler conditions and the threat of rainfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -2.26 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.791 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.3° (0.1° above normal).

 

[the_other_guy]

It is mid Sept…who cares if it dries out?

We have plenty of rain in bucket for year. Enjoy nice weather imo. 

[JerseyWx]

It depends where you are really, south Jersey has been a little drier than up here.  The grass is starting to brown a bit, but overall it's not like the resevoirs are drying up or there are water restrictions.

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

It is mid Sept…who cares if it dries out?

We have plenty of rain in bucket for year. Enjoy nice weather imo. 

People that mow lawns for their business/have to water alot of plants for a business or park/garden might care.  But otherwise I hear ya-enjoy the perfect weather.

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

People that mow lawns for their business/have to water alot of plants for a business or park/garden might care.  But otherwise I hear ya-enjoy the perfect weather.

Luckily, we don't get "real" droughts around here.  The worst it has gotten is that they issue "Don't water your lawn (except if you contract a landscaper).  I mean, how do you enforce that sort of edict?  You can't.