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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. That storm next week will not make it up here unfortunately 

 

 

Won’t be much rain up here if two near record 590+ dm ridges verify. You can see the shift in just one Euro run. Hopefully, this isn’t a preview of next winter.;)


New run

IMG_1125.thumb.png.76d7aa3a86839609919f0145c64e38c6.png

Old run

IMG_1126.thumb.png.8189a5d21cbecbe1a304ac28157e9de7.png

 

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Generally somewhat above normal to above normal temperatures could persist through at least much of the third week of the month, if not longer. However, excessive heat appears unlikely.

Out West, the pattern responsible for a record hot summer and torrid start to September is beginning to break down as a series of troughs moves toward that region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -2.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.142 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.3° (0.1° above normal).

 

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Records (9/11)

Highs:

EWR: 99 (1983)
NYC: 99 (1983)
LGA: 96 (1983)
JFK: 96 (1983)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1932)
NYC: 43 (1917)
LGA: 51 (1967)
JFK: 49 (1967)

Historical:

 

1900: The remnants of the Great Galveston Hurricane were located over central Iowa on this day. Eastern Nebraska, northwest Iowa, and southern Minnesota show four-plus inches of rain from this storm.

1949 - An early snowstorm brought 7.5 inches to Helena MT. In Maine, a storm drenched New Brunswick with 8.05 inches of rain in 24 hours, a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1961 - Very large and slow moving Hurricane Carla made landfall near Port Lavaca TX. Carla battered the central Texas coast with wind gusts to 175 mph, and up to 16 inches of rain, and spawned a vicious tornado which swept across Galveston Island killing eight persons. The hurricane claimed 45 lives, and caused 300 million dollars damage. The remnants of Carla produced heavy rain in the Lower Missouri Valley and southern sections of the Upper Great Lakes Region. (David Ludlum) (Storm Data)

1976 - Up to five inches of rain brought walls of water and millions of tons of debris into Bullhead City AZ via washes from elevations above 3000 feet. Flooding caused more than three million dollars damage. Chasms up to forty feet deep were cut across some roads. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - Thunderstorms caused flash flooding and subsequent river flooding in central Lower Michigan. Up to 14 inches of rain fell in a 72 hour period, and flooding caused 400 million dollars damage. (Storm Data)

1987 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Texas, and spawned three tornadoes. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 70 mph at Goodnight TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Snow blanketed parts of the Central Rocky Mountain Region and the Central Plateau, with ten inches reported at Mount Evans in Colorado. Smoke from forest fires in the northwestern U.S. reached Pennsylvania and New York State. Hurricane Gilbert, moving westward over the Carribean, was packing winds of 100 mph by the end of the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Nine cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Havre MT with a reading of 23 degrees. Livingston MT and West Yellowstone MT tied for honors as the cold spot in the nation with morning lows of 17 degrees. Thunderstorms produced hail over the Sierra Nevada Range of California, with two inches reported on the ground near Donner Summit. The hail made roads very slick, resulting in a twenty car accident. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2001: Hurricane Erin was off the coast of New Jersey and New York on this day. 

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4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

called the real heat going north :)

 

20 inches in Hpn this winter :/ Pattern on repeat

The real heat was always forecast to go north relative to the averages. 
 

New run

IMG_1149.thumb.png.66e60af489678acfd8810d6457ba689f.png

 

Old run

 

IMG_1150.thumb.png.4f76a146e73a7e9fbe9e612d7cbc564b.png

 

 

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65 / 65 more humid fog in parts. NNE light wind if not calm.  Fog burns off and back to near / low 80s for this So-Cal style stretch including the morning grays.   Ridge northeast / Francines in the middle and trough west.   More of the same the next 5 - 7 days pending on how far north the cut off low on the south east  next week , still not sure it doesnt get to us by Tue / Wed, otherwise high pressure ruling the east and producing overall above normal - to much above normal temps and blocking much of any lwo pressure.  A persistent onshore-flow keeps the heat at bay and the warmest in this 1-2 week stretch may not get to 90 even in the warm spots but push monthly departures above normal and likely total a 14 days +3 - +5 for the period.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It been a -3 start to September but it looks like we will eventually turn positive as the rest of the month looks well above average. 
 

IMG_1130.thumb.png.5eaaf8b307c552acc7b64171c3b670bc.png
 

 

 

 

 

 

What that looks like numbers-wise for Monthly averages against normal through Sep 11

 

JFK: -2
EWR: -3.1
ISP: -3.3
NYC: -3.9
LGA: -4

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On 9/10/2024 at 9:38 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The C3S multi-model suite has come out with its first forecast for Winter 2024-2025. With an anticipated La Niña and strongly negative PDO state, there would typically be a tendency for ridging off the Southeast. Blocking forecasts from this far out have no skill, so that's a variable that could impact the forecast and outcome. The sample size of weak La Niña events following moderate to strong El Niño events is tiny. As a result, it makes sense to place greater weight on the seasonal guidance than usual.

The C3S has done reasonably well with seasonal forecasting. Last September's outlook for Winter 2023-24 was quite good.

Below is the initial winter forecast for North America on the C3S:

image.png.9de6a79b15e24abc40a1d4384a93de68.png

Global December 2024-February 2025 Outlook:

image.thumb.png.cea8a64cf552212925e5fa744ac64842.png

Looks like we may have a -NAO with the above:

 

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7 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Only 2.14" of rain in the last 2 months (since July 13th). Every reasonable shot of rain, pop-up thunderstorm, anything, has avoided Ocean County between NJ-37 and NJ-72. Bone dry. Lawn is dead. Haven't mowed since June.

Much better up this way ( SI )with 8.86" for same period .

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