September 2024

[SACRUS]

 

 

63 / 48 and clear off a low of 52.  On the way back to what should tally 7 days above normal and overall dry with highs mainly low - mid 80s and upper 80s to near 90 the peak with a more SW / NW flow this weekend in the warmer spots.  Ridge over the top - stuck up pattern that needs that laxative.    Francine meanders over the central states, cut off ULL near the southeast.  This could go from very pleasant later summer/ dry to a few days (Debby like) of rains - will need to watch. Overall warm and continued warm once past the cut off low next week/weekend.

 

9/10 - 9/16 : Warm / dry
9/17 - 9/20 : watch potential remnants of Francine / cut off low form the SE running north into the area
beyond : overall warm to very warm

 

[SACRUS]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe our next chance of more widespread rain in about 10 days. Models all over the place with the low positions. They all agree on the big high sitting over the Northeast. But vary on the subtropical or tropical development underneath. These are the highest tides of the month with the full moon so days of onshore flow could lead to potential beach erosion and coastal flooding if the gradient gets tight enough.

 

 

 

Its been a clear trend for a while any dry pattern will reverse and in most cases a big way.  Its a matter of time these hung up patters can go from dry to very wet when things dont move and slow down.

[SACRUS]

Trough west / ridge NE  the areas underneath hung up and its either long stretch of very nice / warm or wet

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  98 (1983)
NYC: 97 (1983)
LGA:  95 (1983)
JFK: 98 (1983)


Lows:

EWR: 44 (1938)
NYC: 43 (1883)
LGA: 50 (1978)
JFK: 50 (1978)

Historical:

 

1811: South Carolina was hit by a hurricane. The main highlight associated with the hurricane was a tornado that damaged downtown Charleston.

1919 - A hurricane struck the Florida Keys drowning more than 500 persons. (David Ludlum)

1960 - Hurricane Donna struck the Florida Keys, with winds gusting to 180 mph and a thirteen foot storm surge. The hurricane then moved north along the eastern coast of Florida and inundated Naples before moving out to sea. Hurricane Donna claimed fifty lives, injured 1800 others, and caused more than 300 million dollars damage. The Marathon/Tavernier area was almost completely destroyed, and in the Citrus Belt, most of the avacado crop was blown from the trees. Hurricane Donna wreaked havoc from Florida to Maine, with wind gusts to 100 mph along much of the coast. Hurricane Donna produced wind gusts to 121 mph at Charleston SC on the 11th, and wind gusts to 138 mph at Blue Hill Observatory MA on the 12th. The hurricane finally died over Maine two days later, producing more than five inches of rain over the state. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1960: The center of Hurricane Donna passed over the middle of the Florida Keys between 2, and 3 am on this day. Donna was a Category 5 hurricane over the Atlantic and a Category 4 at landfall. This storm caused the deaths of over 100 in Puerto Rico, 50 in the United States, and 63 in a jet crash. The plane crash occurred on August 29th as a French airliner was attempting to land at Dakar, Senegal during a “blinding rainstorm.” The storm was likely a tropical disturbance at the time of the crash. 

 

1961: On September 10th, the Television Infrared Observation Satellite observed an area of thunderstorms west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, suggesting a possible tropical cyclone. This storm is the first large tropical cyclone to be discovered on satellite imagery and would eventually become Hurricane Esther.

 

1987 - A late afternoon thunderstorm roared through Austin TX producing wind gusts to 81 mph, and 2.17 inches of rain in just sixty minutes. The high winds toppled six National Guard helicopters at the Robert Mueller Municipal Airport, and damaged or destroyed numerous other aircraft. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Cool air sweeping into the north central U.S. brought snow to some of the higher elevations of Montana. The town of Kings Hill, southeast of Great Falls, was blanketed with six inches of snow. Tropical Storm Gilbert strenghtened to a hurricane over the eastern Carribean. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Light snow fell in Montana overnight, with three inches reported at Fairfield. Billings MT reported a record low of 33 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S., with record highs of 86 degrees at Caribou ME and 90 degrees at Burlington VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1998: Tropical Storm Frances made landfall near Matagorda Bay, TX, causing the worst coastal flooding and beach erosion since Hurricane Carla in 1961. The storm's heavy rains ended a drought in East Texas but caused severe river flooding in parts of Texas and Louisiana. The highest rainfall total noted was 21.10 inches at Terrytown in southeast Louisiana. A major disaster declaration was issued for Cameron, Jefferson, Lafourche, and Terrebonne parishes in Louisiana.

 

2017: Hurricane Irma crossed the Florida Keys as a Category 4 storm.

[donsutherland1]

The C3S multi-model suite has come out with its first forecast for Winter 2024-2025. With an anticipated La Niña and strongly negative PDO state, there would typically be a tendency for ridging off the Southeast. Blocking forecasts from this far out have no skill, so that's a variable that could impact the forecast and outcome. The sample size of weak La Niña events following moderate to strong El Niño events is tiny. As a result, it makes sense to place greater weight on the seasonal guidance than usual.

The C3S has done reasonably well with seasonal forecasting. Last September's outlook for Winter 2023-24 was quite good.

Below is the initial winter forecast for North America on the C3S:

Global December 2024-February 2025 Outlook:

[Brian5671]

No cold air anywhere on that model

[Dark Star]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No cold air anywhere on that model

Cold air was in hiding last winter as well...

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Cold air was in hiding last winter as well...

and when Alaska is cold that is usually the kiss of death in our region....

[MANDA]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

and when Alaska is cold that is usually the kiss of death in our region....

Look at the bright side....we will all get to play several spirited games of Kick the Can !

An annual Winter season tradition of late.

[Brian5671]

Just now, MANDA said:

Look at the bright side....we will all get to play several spirited games of Kick the Can !

An annual Winter season tradition of late.

LOL.   True.   And the usual "it's only Jan 2nd",  so and so said XYZ so it must be coming,  "the (___fill in favorite model) which has been great of late says it's coming.

JB says, Look at ___(fill in cold analog) this pattern matches it!    ETC ETC 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Look at the bright side....we will all get to play several spirited games of Kick the Can !

An annual Winter season tradition of late.

February's going to rock!

 

 

We did do well here last February but that was pretty isolated

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The C3S multi-model suite has come out with its first forecast for Winter 2024-2025. With an anticipated La Niña and strongly negative PDO state, there would typically be a tendency for ridging off the Southeast. Blocking forecasts from this far out have no skill, so that's a variable that could impact the forecast and outcome. The sample size of weak La Niña events following moderate to strong El Niño events is tiny. As a result, it makes sense to place greater weight on the seasonal guidance than usual.

The C3S has done reasonably well with seasonal forecasting. Last September's outlook for Winter 2023-24 was quite good.

Below is the initial winter forecast for North America on the C3S:

Global December 2024-February 2025 Outlook:

LOL..model has no cold air anywhere in the world just Alaska..The world is not heating up that much. Seems to me overdone especially in a La Nina winter. We wiill see.And it's an average  of 2.0 for 3 months. Doesn't mean there wont be cold and snowy periods this winter.

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

LOL..model has no cold air anywhere in the world just Alaska..The world is not heating up that much. Seems to me overdone especially in a La Nina winter. We wiill see.And it's an average  of 2.0 for 3 months. Doesn't mean there wont be cold and snowy periods this winter.

It's an initial run. Last year was quite skillful for North America, but not Eurasia (including Scandinavia).

This year is TBD, especially as blocking (Atlantic and Pacific) is unknown from this far out. At this stage, I wouldn't lock it in. It's a point of interest. I suspect that the Great Lakes area should do well in terms of snowfall (normal or perhaps even somewhat above normal) even if the winter is mild overall. Consistent with numerous La Niña events, I suspect that the southern tier of the U.S. will be drier than normal. But these are emerging thoughts.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

LOL..model has no cold air anywhere in the world just Alaska..The world is not heating up that much. Seems to me overdone especially in a La Nina winter. We wiill see.And it's an average  of 2.0 for 3 months. Doesn't mean there wont be cold and snowy periods this winter.

How’d this current hurricane season workout from what the LR forecasts had?  
 

Ya…I wouldn’t let that thing bother me too much.   If that model had a frigid winter showing at this range, I’d be skeptical too.  It’s one piece of guidance in early September, nothing more.   

[Stormlover74]

Euro brings in some decent rain in about a week. Cmc as well while gfs has nothing

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Its been a clear trend for a while any dry pattern will reverse and in most cases a big way.  Its a matter of time these hung up patters can go from dry to very wet when things dont move and slow down.

Even the dry patterns have been relatively brief and shallow only affecting soil moisture and not water supply. We shifted to a much wetter pattern in 2003. NYC hasn’t  had a drought emergency since 2002. That one was less severe than the 1960s drought. Luckily we haven’t see any droughts that extreme as the climate has warmed so much since then. If we had 60s or early 00s drought conditions in this much warmer climate, then usual warm spots would have already recorded highs over 110°. But instead we get higher dew points, heat indexes, and more onshore flow. 

[winterwarlock]

This weather is loverly and an incredible beach weekend coming up

[Wxoutlooksblog]

49 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro brings in some decent rain in about a week. Cmc as well while gfs has nothing

I don't usually but I might tend to side with the GFS and Euro AI. The way the Euro develops a storm on or near the coast right after Francine's remnants dissipate looks suspect a-la February pattern with blocking HP over the Great Lakes and northeast. With such a strong ridge I don't think it happens and most likely the rain and associated low pressure never get this far north. I might be wrong, but that's my early take on this.

WX/PT

[SACRUS]

 

82 / 52 california-esque weather

[winterwx21]

81 here as we start a very long stretch of days with high temps in the 80s. 90 isn't looking likely, but temps well up into the 80s (probably 85 to 88) for Friday and the weekend. 

[lee59]

Looks like temperatures near normal to slightly above for the coming week, give or take either side of 80, at least here on Long Island.

[SnoSki14]

I totally buy the tropical development off the east coast. Strong high to the north allows for a system to spin underneath.

High moves east and storm impacts coast. Where and what kind of impacts remain to be seen. New GFS is following the Euro though 

[psv88]

Stunning day today. 78 and bluebird skies. Flat seas for the most part on the sound. Incredible out there 

[forkyfork]

3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I don't usually but I might tend to side with the GFS and Euro AI. The way the Euro develops a storm on or near the coast right after Francine's remnants dissipate looks suspect a-la February pattern with blocking HP over the Great Lakes and northeast. With such a strong ridge I don't think it happens and most likely the rain and associated low pressure never get this far north. I might be wrong, but that's my early take on this.

WX/PT

agreed, we need a midwestern trough not a rocky mountain trough 

[SACRUS]

 

Hurricane Francine

 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:


ACY: 83
EWR: 82
New Brnswck: 81
JFK: 81
PHL: 81
BLM: 80
TEB: 79
TTN: 79
LGA: 79
ISP: 78
NYC: 78

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I totally buy the tropical development off the east coast. Strong high to the north allows for a system to spin underneath.

High moves east and storm impacts coast. Where and what kind of impacts remain to be seen. New GFS is following the Euro though 

Setup screams suppression

looks like days of east wind with little rain 

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Setup screams suppression

looks like days of east wind with little rain 

No thanks 

[donsutherland1]

A gradual warming trend is now underway. Exceptional warmth is unlikely through at least the first half of September. Generally somewhat above normal to above normal temperatures could persist through at least much of the third week of the month, if not longer.

Out West, the pattern responsible for a record hot summer and torrid start to September should finally begin to break down late this week as a series of troughs moves through that region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +6.24 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.140 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.4° (0.2° above normal).

 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs brings the storm up the coast next Tuesday 

Cmc too but slower