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Tomorrow through Wednesday will be variably cloudy with temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. It will likely turn somewhat milder late in the week. Cooler air could arrive during the weekend.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued. As of 2:15 MST, Phoenix had reached 113°, which demolished the daily record of 107° from 2003. The extreme heat will persist into at least midweek.

Continuing long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. The western U.S. could be particularly warm relative to normal. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly in late September (2010), as was the case this year.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +2.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.282 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.9° (0.3° below normal).

 

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Only a 3° difference between the high and low in NYC today is the tied for the 2nd smallest for the month of September since 1943.
 

TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         63   1055 AM  88    1945  71     -8       63       
  MINIMUM         60    838 AM  42    1888  58      2       59   

 


https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=NYC&v=smallest&month=sep&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png


IMG_1407.thumb.png.2d2e232038b260218aa1ee8dff12012d.png

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 89 (1945)
NYC: 88 (1945)
LGA: 86 (1945)
JFK: 82 (1948)

Lows:

EWR: 40 (1942)
NYC: 42 (1942)
LGA: 43 (1942)
JFK: 44 (2000)

Historical:

 

1927 - An outbreak of tornadoes from Oklahoma to Indiana caused 81 deaths and 25 million dollars damage. A tornado (possibly two tornadoes) cut an eight-mile long path across Saint Louis MO, to Granite City IL, killing 79 persons. The damage path at times was a mile and a quarter in width. The storm followed a similar path to tornadoes which struck in 1871, 1896, and 1959. (The Weather Channel)

1959 - A storm produced 28 inches of snow at Colorado Springs, CO. (David Ludlum)

1983 - Heavy rains began in central and eastern Arizona which culminated in the worst flood in the history of the state. Eight to ten inch rains across the area caused severe flooding in southeastern Arizona which resulted in thirteen deaths and 178 million dollars damage. President Reagan declared eight counties of Arizona to be disaster areas. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - A week of violent weather began in Oklahoma which culminated in one of the worst flooding events in the history of the state. On the first day of the week early morning thunderstorms caused more than a million dollars damage in south Oklahoma City. Thunderstorms produced 4 to 7 inches of rain from Hobart to Ponca City, and another round of thunderstorms that evening produced 7 to 10 inches of rain in north central and northeastern sections of Oklahoma. (Storm Data)

1987 - A slow moving cold front produced rain from the Great Lakes Region to the Central Gulf Coast Region. A late afternoon thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 62 mph at Buffalo NY. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. In Oregon, the afternoon high of 96 degrees at Medford was a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - High pressure brought freezing temperatures to parts of Vermont and New York State. Burlington VT dipped to 30 degrees, and Binghamton NY reported a record low of 34 degrees. The high pressure system also brought cold weather to the Central Rocky Mountain Region. Alamosa CO reported a record low of 18 degrees, and Gunnison CO was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of just five degrees above zero. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the 80s and low 90s in the Northern Plateau and Northern Plains Region. Record highs included 91 degrees at Boise ID, and 92 degrees at Sheridan WY. The high of 100 degrees at Tucson AZ marked their 51st record high of the year, and their 92nd day of 100 degree weather. (National Weather Summary)

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September will finish very close to average temperatures as the warm and cool departures canceled each other out. 
 

EWR….+0.5

NYC….-0.4

LGA….-1.3….strong flow off Sound kept LGA the coolest

JFK…..+1.1…easterly flow from Nassau reduced the usual SW sea breeze

HPN….+0.2

ISP…...-0.1

BDR….-0.9

New Brunswick…0.0

SMQ….+0.6

POU……+0.6

 

 

 


 

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62 / 58 cloudy although some breaks.  Hung up upper low that sucked up Helene slowly pushing out offshore the next 48 hours.  Mainly cloudy and near normal till then with little rain other than more drizzle showers.  Sunnier by later Wed and Thu and into the coming weekend, Fri near 80 and the warmest for a while / till next year  (Sat potential showers).     Cooler look by the 7/8th and some chill showing up on some forecasts so perhaps 40s metro and 30s inland mid month between 9th - 12/13.  Likely ridging returns after mid month.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

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Minor interest example: big forest fire in WY as seen in pix yesterday and the 06z/30 HRRR vertically integrated smoke, plus its modeled east and south spread by late Tuesday night. Click for clarity and see the legend info.  Vertically integrated implies where coverage is heavy...hazy sunshine... but does not reflect near surface smoke which is expected to be confined to WY and possibly w Dakoas. 

Screen Shot 2024-09-30 at 8.30.59 AM.png

Screen Shot 2024-09-30 at 8.37.14 AM.png

Screen Shot 2024-09-30 at 8.38.32 AM.png

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