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Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. A shower is possible. A similar temperature regime will start the work week, but it could turn somewhat milder late in the week.

So far, the highest storm total rainfall from Helene in North Carolina is 36.54" at Jonas Ridge. If validated, that would be a new state record.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued. Today saw the heat peak. Phoenix topped out at 117°, which toppled the all-time September monthly record and matched the existing August mark. The previous latest-season 117° temperature occurred on August 28, 2023. The extreme heat will persist into at least the middle of next week.

Continuing long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. The western U.S. could be particularly warm relative to normal. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly in late September (2010), as was the case this year.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +4.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.384 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.0° (0.2° below normal).

 

 

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Records:

High:

EWR: 87 (2014)
NYC: 88 (1881)
LGA: 84 (2014)
JFK: 82 (1948)

Lows:

 

EWR: 38 (1947)
NYC: 41 (1947)
LGA: 42 (1947)
JFK: 44 (1989)

Historical: 

 

1836 - The first of three early season snows brought four inches of snow to Hamilton, NY, and two inches to Ashby MA. (David Ludlum)

1837: The first recorded storm to rake the entire Texas coast was Racer’s Storm, named for a British sloop of war which encountered the system in the extreme northwestern Caribbean on September 28th. It is remembered as one of the most destructive storms of the nineteenth century due to its extreme duration and 2000 mile path of destruction.

1874 - A strong category 1 hurricane went by Charleston and Georgetown, South Carolina. The tide was unprecedented height, inundating the entire riverfront of the city of Charleston.

1893 - Albuquerque, NM, was soaked with 2.25 inches of rain, enough to establish a 24 hour record for that city. (The Weather Channel)

1917 - A hurricane hit Pensacola, FL. Winds gusted to 95 mph, and the barometric pressure dipped to 28.50 inches. Winds at Mobile AL gusted to 75 mph. (The Weather Channel)

1929 - A hurricane-spawned tornado hit Fort Lauderdale, Florida. While the path length of this estimated F2 tornado was 0.8 miles, it caused 16 injuries.

1987 - Thunderstorms produced up to ten inches of rain in southern Kansas and north central Oklahoma overnight. The Chikaskia River rose 2.5 feet above flood stage at Blackwell OK during the day causing flooding in Kay and Grant counties of north central Oklahoma. Early morning thunderstorms in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas produced 3.07 inches of rain in six hours at McAllen. Thunderstorms produced up to six inches of rain in southeastern Texas later in the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front in the central U.S. produced severe weather from northern Texas to the Lower Missouri Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. Hail three inches in diameter was reported at Nolan TX, and wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at Lawrence KS. Thunderstorms drenched downtown Kansas City MO with up to four inches of rain, leaving some cars stranded in water six feet deep. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms over northeastern Florida drenched Jacksonville with 4.28 inches of rain between midnight and 6 AM EDT. Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Five cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Binghamton NY with a reading of 30 degrees. Morning lows were in the 20s in northern New England. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S., with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and 80s. In Oregon, Astoria reported a record high of 83 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1998: On the morning of September 28th, Hurricane George made landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi with maximum winds of 110 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb, making it a Category 2 hurricane. After landfall, Georges moved very slowly across southern Mississippi and weakened to a tropical depression by the morning of the 29th when the center was about 30 miles north-northeast of Mobile, Alabama. The storm dissipated near the northeast Florida/southeast Georgia coast by the morning of October 1, 1998. 

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4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Some people have vegetable gardens you know. 

And some of us have lost weeks in the fishing world to this awful easterly flow. And fall's blustery winds are sure to follow. A good chunk of the season is lost. Charter and party boat losses will not be recovered this year. The government has closed some of the major fisheries for the summer, and once again, the fall will be a waste because these storms cause the fish to migrate offshore. My garden is always a wreck by now and we are tired of tomatoes, which are rotting on the vines, peppers and eggplants rotting on the vines, and don't wanna see a zucchini again til next summer ( I stopped watering them months ago in pots, and they are STILL producing ). I don't mind the rain, really, but this easterly flow is like nothing I've ever seen. This is downright depressing.

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46 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

And some of us have lost weeks in the fishing world to this awful easterly flow. And fall's blustery winds are sure to follow. A good chunk of the season is lost. Charter and party boat losses will not be recovered this year. The government has closed some of the major fisheries for the summer, and once again, the fall will be a waste because these storms cause the fish to migrate offshore. My garden is always a wreck by now and we are tired of tomatoes, which are rotting on the vines, peppers and eggplants rotting on the vines, and don't wanna see a zucchini again til next summer ( I stopped watering them months ago in pots, and they are STILL producing ). I don't mind the rain, really, but this easterly flow is like nothing I've ever seen. This is downright depressing.

Sorry to hear that the fishing hasn't gone well. The easterly flow has been terrible.

My tomatoes, peppers and eggplants are in decline too, but they're still producing enough that I care about getting enough rain for them. I also have pole lima beans that are just starting to produce heavily. I picked my biggest amount so far yesterday. Unlike tomatoes, pole lima beans produce heavily late and go extremely strong right up until frost. I also have romaine lettuce for the fall out there and it's producing heavily right now. Since I have a couple things that I expect to keep producing nicely in October, I was happy to finally get a nice rainfall today and I hope we get a decent amount in October. 

Of course we have flowers and lawns, and trees being stressed which can hurt fall color -- plenty of reasons why we still want rain September into October. 

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47 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

And some of us have lost weeks in the fishing world to this awful easterly flow. And fall's blustery winds are sure to follow. A good chunk of the season is lost. Charter and party boat losses will not be recovered this year. The government has closed some of the major fisheries for the summer, and once again, the fall will be a waste because these storms cause the fish to migrate offshore. My garden is always a wreck by now and we are tired of tomatoes, which are rotting on the vines, peppers and eggplants rotting on the vines, and don't wanna see a zucchini again til next summer ( I stopped watering them months ago in pots, and they are STILL producing ). I don't mind the rain, really, but this easterly flow is like nothing I've ever seen. This is downright depressing.

 

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4 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

And some of us have lost weeks in the fishing world to this awful easterly flow. And fall's blustery winds are sure to follow. A good chunk of the season is lost. Charter and party boat losses will not be recovered this year. The government has closed some of the major fisheries for the summer, and once again, the fall will be a waste because these storms cause the fish to migrate offshore. My garden is always a wreck by now and we are tired of tomatoes, which are rotting on the vines, peppers and eggplants rotting on the vines, and don't wanna see a zucchini again til next summer ( I stopped watering them months ago in pots, and they are STILL producing ). I don't mind the rain, really, but this easterly flow is like nothing I've ever seen. This is downright depressing.

Funny, I was thinking earlier that I don't remember ever having such an extended period of easterly winds. 

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7 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

And some of us have lost weeks in the fishing world to this awful easterly flow. And fall's blustery winds are sure to follow. A good chunk of the season is lost. Charter and party boat losses will not be recovered this year. The government has closed some of the major fisheries for the summer, and once again, the fall will be a waste because these storms cause the fish to migrate offshore. My garden is always a wreck by now and we are tired of tomatoes, which are rotting on the vines, peppers and eggplants rotting on the vines, and don't wanna see a zucchini again til next summer ( I stopped watering them months ago in pots, and they are STILL producing ). I don't mind the rain, really, but this easterly flow is like nothing I've ever seen. This is downright depressing.

It’s awful! The entire last month of fluke season has been flushed, not that it was any good this year. I hope to have one or two good striper trips before the season is over 

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Yeah, this was one of the strongest easterly flow Septembers we have seen due to the record west based blocking. This pattern lead to the historic flooding with Helene along with the global record atmospheric moisture.  It was one of the strongest hurricane phasing events since Sandy.
 

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IMG_1406.gif.7682f08d6495ac6e4b1a4e453331fbe7.gif
 

 

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62 / 58 light drizzle. 7 day total of 0.51 in the bucket off of 161 hours of clouds.  Perhaps a brief break in the clouds for sunset tomorrow then cloudy again Tue - Wed.  Sunshine should return Thu and next weekend.  Trough builds in between the 7 / 8.  Perhaps the chilliest air of the season between the 9 - 15 before a later month warmup.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this was one of the strongest easterly flow Septembers we have seen due to the record west based blocking. This pattern lead to the historic flooding with Helene along with the global record atmospheric moisture.  It was one of the strongest hurricane phasing events since Sandy.
 

 

 

 

One of the cloudier stretches after a sunnier streak with these hung up patterns.    Sep 23 - Oct 3 (97%) of the time cloudy.

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Boating season ended two weeks ago. Not quite as bad as last September but still a shortened season. Nasty east winds churning up the sound and keeping the boats in port. 
 

Boat comes out tomorrow and now we depressed. 

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