bluewave Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: You can see that ESE-oriented precip crunch which means high pressure/confluence definitely at work. I think the reason the warm front was a little further south than forecast yesterday was due to the models underestimating the influence of the high pressure in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: Brick wall in effect Typical ESE bent confluence look on radar with the rain stopping dead north of Trenton. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Typical ESE bent confluence look on radar with the rain stopping dead north of Trenton. At least it's not January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: At least it's not January Looks like the rain won’t start until after midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 just nothing at all remotely interesting weather wise for the foreseeable future 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: just nothing at all remotely interesting weather wise for the foreseeable future if you are unhappy i am happy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Looks like the rain won’t start until after midnight 18z HRRR has our area getting a half inch to an inch. We pray that it's correct. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 It will turn slightly cooler for the weekend with highs mainly in the upper 60s and Lower 70s. Helene has brought historic rains to the Asheville area. Its 2-day total exceeded the highest amount recorded over 5 days and its 3-day total exceeded its highest 15-day figure prior to 2024. Atlanta picked up 3" or more rain on three consecutive days, which broke the record set during December 8-9, 1919 and tied during July 4-5, 1994. In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continues. The extreme heat will last through the coming weekend. Phoenix and Tucson will experience their highest temperatures so late in the season. Continuing long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. The western U.S. could be particularly warm relative to normal. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly in late September (2010), as was the case this year. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was +6.42 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.304 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1° (0.1° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: 18z HRRR has our area getting a half inch to an inch. We pray that it's correct. Raining here currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Two day rainfall total here as of 8:00 this morning: .28". All of it went to good use as it was a off and on periods of light rain and drizzle. The rainfall along with cloudy skies and cooler temperatures making things look a little greener. Leaves are changing with some good color getting underway. Some of the maples are a a really nice reddish orange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 2 day rainfall total of 0.05" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Two day Central Park total: ref NOAA/NWS .26. As always …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 8 hours ago, rclab said: Two day Central Park total: ref NOAA/NWS .26. As always …. Was enough to for NYC to drop to 3rd driest and Newark down to 2nd place. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1884 0.21 0 2 1914 0.29 0 3 2024 0.36 4 4 1885 0.41 0 5 2005 0.48 0 6 1941 0.51 0 7 1895 0.62 0 8 1951 0.70 0 9 2019 0.95 0 10 1881 0.97 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1941 0.14 0 2 2024 0.15 3 3 2005 0.45 0 4 1951 0.95 0 5 1972 1.03 0 6 1948 1.14 0 - 1939 1.14 0 7 1931 1.19 0 8 1953 1.25 0 9 1964 1.30 0 10 1967 1.35 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 .30 overnight with light rain still falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: .30 overnight with light rain still falling Just 0.04" a bit further ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 6th straight days of clouds and 0.19 in the bucket not a good trade off. Likely 4 / 5 more days of clouds and maybe that total is doubled to 0.5 or 0.75 of rain with what will then be 12 straigh days of clouds. Drier / sunnier by later Wed. Looking warmer than normal till around the 7/8th. Watch the GOM (TX/C-GC) for next tropical opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: .30 overnight with light rain still falling A lot of dreariness without much to show for it. Remains me of a warmer version of March/April. Models showing Gulf activity too. Wouldn't surprise me to see tropical activity preceding cooler weather next month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 W/C GOM is the area to watch next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 No brick wall today. Shitty, rainy morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Rain and drizzle aimed at the coasts currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 I suppose would be for the forthcoming October thread, but maps like this have been a rarity lately and something I love to see in October, short lived as it may or may not be: 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 28 Author Share Posted September 28 Picked up 0.19” of rain for the day yesterday. 0.10” of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 0.22" overnight here. Hopefully we'll add onto that later today into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 54 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: I suppose would be for the forthcoming October thread, but maps like this have been a rarity lately and something I love to see in October, short lived as it may or may not be: Great . Cool fall and then pattern flip right around december 23. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 8 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Great . Cool fall and then pattern flip right around december 23. Dec 21, 57F. Put money on it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Just got a few breaks of sun here as the high pressure over New England is slowing the progress of the moisture coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Just got a few breaks of sun here as the high pressure over New England is slowing the progress of the moisture coming north. Stuck in the muck here but sun out near Del and Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Raining We need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: Dec 21, 57F. Put money on it If the last 12 years are a predictor, you're absolutely right that the smart money is on one spirit-crushing muggy upper 50s/low 60s day sometime between 12/16 and 12/25. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Raining We need it Rain filling in around my area. Models did a good job with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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