September 2024

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Most of the models miss this rain in the area today 

They were too far north although this rain is very light some drizzle here currently but better than nothing

[Allsnow]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

They were too far north although this rain is very light some drizzle here currently but better than nothing

Tomorrow afternoon getting wetter now as well 

 

.12 so far today 

[winterwx21]

Wow actually a little rain for a change. 0.08" here so far today, and I'm glad it now appears that we're gonna get some rain from Helene's remnants. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Wow actually a little rain for a change. 0.08" here so far today, and I'm glad it now appears that we're gonna get some rain from Helene's remnants. 

Tuesday might offer more depending on the remnants track east towards The Atlantic 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

They were too far north although this rain is very light some drizzle here currently but better than nothing

I don't know.  NWS was predicting showers for today.  But most of us in this blog bought into blocking winning out.

[gravitylover]

Finally a nice steady rain, totals jumped from ~.05 to .15 pretty quickly. 

[Cfa]

0.03” I would’ve preferred nothing.

[Will - Rutgers]

thunderstorms developing 

[steve392]

Decent rain this morning.  Will hopefully help with my overseeing of the backyard. 

[bluewave]

I don’t think the model forecasts from yesterday were too far off. The warm front verified about 30-40 miles further south. The heaviest rainfall was still up closer to I-80 rather than down closer to the Driscoll Bridge 287 area. Models seldom get the exact location of the warm front down to the mile correct from even 24 hrs out around here. My guess is this is related to challenges of modeling the weather where the NJ bight meets the land areas which become hilly to mountainous so close to the coastal plain.

 

[lee59]

Only .06 inch of rain here, .41 for the month.

[TJW014]

Last measurable rainfall here other than a trace was back on August 11th. Drizzle for two minutes this morning. 

[bluewave]

Late day warm front with 77° at Newark and 80° readings in Central NJ on the southerly flow.

[Stormlover74]

Nasty out with dews in the low 70s. It's been a while since it felt this bad out

[forkyfork]

beautiful evening 

[TJW014]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nasty out with dews in the low 70s. It's been a while since it felt this bad out

Yep, damp and disgusting out. First time I put the A/C on inside in at least 3-4 weeks

[winterwx21]

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nasty out with dews in the low 70s. It's been a while since it felt this bad out

Yeah dewpoint got to 72 here. I went for a run this afternoon and it was the worst ever dealing with Gnats as I was running. By the end of the run I had at least a couple hundred dead Gnats stuck to my face, neck and arms. I couldn't believe it when I looked in the mirror. It looked as if I was made up for Halloween, lol. Worst run EVER. Give me 95 degrees with moderate humidity in the middle of summer over what we have today. 

[Stormlover74]

Helene 125 and looking very impressive

 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Yeah dewpoint got to 72 here. I went for a run this afternoon and it was the worst ever dealing with Gnats as I was running. By the end of the run I had at least a couple hundred dead Gnats stuck to my face, neck and arms. I couldn't believe it when I looked in the mirror. It looked as if I was made up for Halloween, lol. Worst run EVER. Give me 95 degrees with moderate humidity in the middle of summer over what we have today. 

I wonder how many you ate 

[winterwx21]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I wonder how many you ate 

Haha. Yeah a few went down my throat. Got a few in my eyes too. Towards the end I was running with my eyes closed to try to avoid them, lol. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[Will - Rutgers]

just saw a cluster of mushrooms, which was surprising.  think we got like .05 yesterday.  maybe a quarter inch and they’ll all come out

[Will - Rutgers]

56 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah dewpoint got to 72 here. I went for a run this afternoon and it was the worst ever dealing with Gnats as I was running. By the end of the run I had at least a couple hundred dead Gnats stuck to my face, neck and arms. I couldn't believe it when I looked in the mirror. It looked as if I was made up for Halloween, lol. Worst run EVER. Give me 95 degrees with moderate humidity in the middle of summer over what we have today. 

yeah the bugs are crazy today

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 90 (2007)
NYC: 91 (1970)
LGA: 90 (2007)
JFK: 87 (1970)



Lows:  

EWR: 40 (1940)
NYC: 42 (1940)
LGA: 44 (1947)
JFK: 47 (1949)

Historical:

 

1936 - Denver, CO, was buried under 21.3 inches of snow, 19.4 inches of which fell in 24 hours. The heavy wet snow snapped trees and wires causing seven million dollars damage. (26th-27th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1936: The heaviest snowfall ever recorded in September and the heaviest snowfall ever recorded so early in the season dumped a total of 16.5 inches of snow on downtown Denver and 21.3 inches at Denver Municipal Airport. The 15.0 inches of snow measured from 6:00 PM on the 27th to 6:00 PM on the 28th is the greatest 24-hour snowfall ever recorded in September. This was the first snow of the season. The snow was intermittent on the 26th, but continuous from early afternoon on the 27th to around midnight on the 28th, except for a period of rain during the afternoon of the 28th.

1936:  A forest fire burned several miles east of the town of Brandon, Oregon. The fire was far enough away that residents were not particularly worried. A sudden shift in the winds drove the flames westward and through town. The fire, caused by summer drought and fueled by the abundant Gorse Weed found in many of the empty spaces between buildings in Bandon, caused so much destruction that only a handful of structures were left standing when the fire finally died down. 

1936 - A forest fire burned several miles east of the town of Bandon, Oregon. The fire was far enough away that residents were not particularly worried. A sudden shift in the winds drove the flames westward and through town. The fire, caused by summer drought and fueled by the abundant Gorse Weed found in many of the empty spaces between buildings in Bandon, caused so much destruction that only a handful of structures were left standing when the fire finally died down.

1950 - Residents of the northeastern U.S. observed a blue sun and a blue moon, caused by forest fires in British Columbia. (David Ludlum)

 

1955: On this date, the Atlantic reconnaissance aircraft, ”Snowcloud Five” went down while investigating Hurricane Janet and was never heard from again. Lt. Comdr. Windham with a crew of 8 and two newspapermen reported that they were about to begin penetrating the central core of the hurricane.  The hurricane made landfall at peak intensity near Chetumal, Mexico on September 29th. Janet's landfall as a Category 5 hurricane on the Yucatán Peninsula was the first recorded instance that a storm of such intensity in the Atlantic made landfall on a continental mainland; prior to Janet, landfalls of Category 5 intensity were only known to have taken place on islands.

1963 - San Diego, CA, reached an all-time record high of 111 degrees. Los Angeles hit 1S09 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1970 - Santa Ana winds brought fires to Los Angeles County, and to points south and east. Half a million acres were consumed by the fires, as were 1000 structures. Twenty firemen were injured. (25th-29th) (The Weather Channel)

1971: Project Stormfury was an attempt to weaken tropical cyclones by flying aircraft into them and seeding with silver iodide. The project was run by the United States Government from 1962 to 1983. Hurricane Ginger in 1971 was the last hurricane Project Stormfury seeded.

1979 - In the midst of a hot September for Death Valley, California, the afternoon high was 104 degrees for the second of three days, the coolest afternoon highs for the month. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Freezing temperatures were reported in the Northern and Central Appalachians, and the Upper Ohio Valley. The morning low of 27 degrees at Concord NH tied their record for the date. Temperatures soared into the 90s in South Dakota. Pierre SD reported an afternoon high of 98 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across Florida. Afternoon highs of 92 degrees at Apalachicola and 95 degrees at Fort Myers were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Rain spread from the southeastern states across New England overnight. Cape Hatteras NC reported measurable rainfall for the fourteenth straight day, with 15.51 inches of rain recorded during that two week period. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 108 degrees, and a record 134 days of 100 degree weather for the year. Afternoon temperatures were only in the 40s over parts of northwest Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. (The National Weather Summary)

1998: There were four hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893. 

2004 - After making its infamous loop east of the Bahamas, Hurricane Jeanne made landfall the night of September 26th, 2004. Jeanne came ashore as a major category 3 hurricane just a few miles away from where Hurricane Frances made landfall a few weeks before. Jeanne produced extensive damage along the east central Florida coast from Volusia County south to Martin County. The highest wind gusts occurred over extreme Southern Brevard County as well as Indian River County with 110 - 120 mph estimates at the peak of the storm. (NWS, Melbourne, FL)

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures will reach the lower and even middle 70s across the region tomorrow. It will turn slightly cooler for the weekend with highs mainly in the upper 60s and Lower 70s.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat is underway. The extreme heat will last through the coming weekend. Phoenix and Tucson will experience their highest temperatures so late in the season.

Hurricane Helene will make landfall in Florida's Big Bend region tonight as a Category 4 hurricane with a devastating storm surge. Extreme rainfall could spread as far north as the southern Appalachians. Flooding rains will also affect such cities as Atlanta, Columbus, Macon, and Tallahassee. Already, as of 6:45 pm EDT, Asheville, NC has seen 4.72" of rain today. That is the highest daily amount on record for September. Its two-day total of 8.81" exceeds its prior 2-day, 3-day, and 4-day records. Helene's rainfall is unlikely to reach the New York City area.

Continuing long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. The western U.S. could be particularly warm relative to normal. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly in late September (2010), as was the case this year.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -2.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.207 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1° (0.1° below normal).

 

[FPizz]

On 9/25/2024 at 6:06 PM, uofmiami said:

18Z HRRR says Trenton on S for 80s FWIW.

This had me at 80 for today, got to 75

[doncat]

75° here also with 0.08" rain.

[uofmiami]

14 minutes ago, FPizz said:

This had me at 80 for today, got to 75

77 at EWR it got correct I think, but seems most of the 80s were Trenton/Philly.  As @bluewavepointed out the warm front was further S than modeled so not surprised some locations the high temps were off a bit.  At least we all received some measurable QPF for once.

[FPizz]

10 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

77 at EWR it got correct I think, but seems most of the 80s were Trenton/Philly.  As @bluewavepointed out the warm front was further S than modeled so not surprised some locations the high temps were off a bit.  At least we all received some measurable QPF for once.

Happy between yesterday and today got .19"  

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

yeah the bugs are crazy today

Yeah I was talking to my neighbor and he was in his car and the bugs were attacking him inside the car.