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Had periods of very light rain and mist/drizzle at times today.  Did not check gauge but will do so in the morning.  There were small puddles so I'm going to guess maybe .10 - .15", but just a guess.   Was out and about and needed the wipers on! 

Whats more temperatures never got out of the low 60's all day.  Was chilly and damp.  Felt like fall!

Not enough rain to make any kind of difference but I'll take it. 

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A generally pleasant temperature regime will continue through most or all of the week. it will turn warmer tomorrow. Showers are possible tomorrow, as well.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat is underway. Phoenix reached 113°, which smashed its daily mark of 108° from 1979 and 1989. It was also that city's latest 113° or above temperature on record by 15 days. The extreme heat will last through the coming weekend. Phoenix and Tucson will experience their highest temperatures so late in the season.

Hurricane Helene will make landfall in Florida's Big Bend region tomorrow evening as a major hurricane. Extreme rainfall could spread as far north as the southern Appalachians. Flooding rains will also affect such cities as Atlanta, Columbus, Macon, and Tallahassee. Helene's rainfall is unlikely to reach the New York City area.

Continuing long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. The western U.S. could be particularly warm relative to normal. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly in late September (2010), as was the case this year.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -4.87 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.207 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1° (0.1° below normal).

 

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16 hours ago, uofmiami said:

18Z HRRR says Trenton on S for 80s FWIW.

index.png.12caf9b8b3bbc2542e0fcb8b48205094.png

The one good thing about the Southeast Ridge correcting stronger today is that maybe the moisture from Helene will sneak further north into the weekend.



IMG_1365.thumb.png.12d8e45aef372478dc36a376a18a933d.png

 

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19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, models becoming wetter now 

Newark only needs .06 to move out of 1st place for driest September.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024 0.09 5
2 1941 0.14 0
3 2005 0.45 0
4 1951 0.95 0
5 1972 1.03 0
6 1948 1.14 0
- 1939 1.14 0
7 1931 1.19 0
8 1953 1.25 0
9 1964 1.30 0
10 1967 1.35 0
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13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal for seeding and aeration 

I had to reseed a portion of the front lawn due to skunk damage and the side due to my neighbor's contractor not reseeding or filling sinkholes he created my lawn while replacing a water line. I have had to water daily for two weeks and the grass is coming up and everything around those areas is brown and dormant. I usually aerate and overseed every other year. I skiped this year as it has been so dry.

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69 / 66  clouds .  Spotty showers. Clouds will keep it lowers than otherwise would have been record challenging warmth.   Clouds lingering till and through Monday (9/30) and we'll see how much rain to show for it.  Likely in the 0.50 - 0/75 widespread with next shot of some steadier rain Saturday as Helene meanders southwest of us and monday as whats left of the remnants moves out south of the area.  Beyond there dry and near normal next week, warmer beyond there going into next week.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/NE/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif 

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55 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Darker returns may be reaching the ground

 

KDIX_loop.gif?refreshed=1727355048751

Yup, steady light rain here now.  .11"

Did a lot of seeding for my front lawn and it's coming in nicely with frequent watering.  With the frequent watering, my lawn looks pretty sweet....and a little out of place with the browning lawns in the neighborhood 

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