September 2024

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I would think it forms but some of the hurricane models are strong TS or Cat 1 for top strength....but who knows we've seen some of these go to town very quickly.

Yeah it definitely still could 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All this hurricane talk as The Atlantic continues to be a dry desert. Major fail by the pros of a active/historic season 

It's been so boring that a typical cane in the gulf is a major topic lol.  Kind of like in some of our horrid winters how an inch or two snow event becomes a big deal.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All this hurricane talk as The Atlantic continues to be a dry desert. Major fail by the pros of a active/historic season 

The landfall forecast was better than the ACE and total storms which were too high. It’s interesting that the Euro correctly forecast the more stable air over the tropics but missed on the ACE and number of storms. The summer temperature forecast did very well.

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Nam is fairly wet while 3k favors nw areas

[Brian5671]

I'll take anything at this point.

[Stormlover74]

Rgem is .5 to 1" city on west but hasn't been reliable of late

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'll take anything at this point.

Same here.  Anything!

[bluewave]

The GFS is flexing stronger with the Southeast Ridge so heaviest goes north.

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Same here.  Anything!

Yeah I'm desperate for the vegetable garden to get a drink, even if it isn't a lot of rain. A quarter to half inch would make me happy, which still looks possible for tomorrow into Thursday but we'll see. 

[steve392]

Several rounds of rain last night just got the ground soaked.  Not even enough to get a measurement. 

[Allsnow]

Euro further north with the rain 

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr is decently wet north and west of the city

[donsutherland1]

A generally pleasant temperature regime will continue through most or all of the week. Temperatures could top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the middle of the week before a slow warming trend commences afterward. Showers are possible on tomorrow and Thursday. Rainfall amounts should average 0.25"-0.50" in the New York City  and Philadelphia Metro areas with some locally higher amounts.

In the Southwest and parts of California, another round of excessive heat is now underway. Parts of the region will likely see near record to record high temperatures on several days during the week and weekend. Phoenix could see its highest temperatures so late in the season.

In addition, a significant hurricane will likely make northwestern Florida landfall on Thursday. The storm will likely be a major hurricane on landfall given the ongoing marine heatwave in the region and relatively low shear. However, the hurricane's rainfall is unlikely to reach the New York City area.

Continuing long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly (2010), as was the case with the September 20th teleconnections.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 today (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That would be the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -8.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.501 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.0° (0.2° below normal).

 

[Allsnow]

Fall feel this evening 

[Picard]

I'm keeping our flower garden moderately watered, and with the cooler temps and generally lower humidity, I have the best blooms I've had all season by far.  Now I just have to keep Bambi away.

[Rtd208]

The op models/ensembles have definitely come in wetter over the next 7-10 days. We'll see how it shakes out.

[Allsnow]

Pain 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2017)
NYC: 91 (2017)
LGA: 91 (2017)
JFK 92 (2017) 


Lows:

EWR: 40 (1950)
NYC: 40 (1963)
LGA; 44 (1974)
JFK: 40 (1963)

Historical:

 

1926 - The temperature at Yellowstone Park dipped to nine degrees below zero. It was the coldest reading of record in the U.S. during September. Severe freezes were widespread over the northwestern U.S. causing great crop destruction. In Washington State, Spokane County experienced their earliest snow of record. Harney Branch Experiment Station in Oregon reported a temperature of 2 degrees above zero to establish a state record for the month of September. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
 

1926: The temperature at Yellowstone Park drops to 9 degrees below zero, making it the coldest September reading ever recorded in the US.

1939: A thunderstorm on this day dropped 6.45 inches in six hours at Indio, CA. This rainfall preceded “El Cordonazo” or “The Lash of St. Francis”, an actual tropical storm. For the entire storm, which started on this day and ended on the 26th, four inches of rain fell across the deserts and mountains as a dying tropical cyclone moved across Baja California into southwestern Arizona. This storm was the second tropical cyclone to impact California during this month. A strong El Niño may have contributed to the activity. The tropical storm produced 50 mph winds over the ocean and estimated seas of 40 feet. September rain records were set in Los Angeles with 5.66 inches and 11.6 inches at Mt. Wilson. 45 people died from sinking boats, and harbors were damaged. Total damage was estimated at $2 million. Californians were unprepared and were alerted to their vulnerability to tropical storms. In response, the weather bureau established a forecast office for Southern California, which began operations in February of 1940.

1950 - A smoke pall from western Canada forest fires covered much of the eastern U.S. Daylight was reduced to nighttime darkness in parts of the Northeast. The color of the sun varied from pink to purple, blue, or lavendar. Yellow to grey-tan was common. (24th-30th) (The Weather Channel)

1956: Hurricane Flossy made landfall near Destin, Florida as a Category 1 storm. 

1972 - Lightning struck a man near Waldport, OR, a young man who it so happens was carrying thirty-five pieces of dynamite. (The Weather Channel)

1986: An F2 tornado, unusually strong for one in California, touched down just southeast of Vina on this day and traveled two miles through an agricultural area. A mobile home was destroyed, injuring a 22-year-old occupant. Eleven other buildings were damaged or demolished, and 50 acres of walnut orchards were flattened.

1987 - The first full day of autumn proved to be a pleasant one for much of the nation, with sunny skies and mild temperatures. Thunderstorms again formed over Florida and the southwestern deserts, and also formed along a cold front in the northeastern U.S. A storm spotter at Earp CA sighted a couple of funnel clouds, one on the California side of the state line, and the other on the Arizona side. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced large hail and damaging winds in the southeastern U.S., with reports of severe weather most numerous in North Carolina. Golf ball size hail was reported at Tick Creek and a number of other locations in North Carolina. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Forty-seven cities between the Rockies and the Appalachians reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 38 degrees at Abilene TX, 34 degrees at Jackson KY, and 36 degrees at Midland TX established records for the month of September. The low of 36 degrees at Midland smashed their previous record for the date by thirteen degrees. Fayetteville AR and Springfield MO reported their earliest freeze of record. Thunderstorms produced torrential rains in northeastern Florida. Jacksonville was deluged with 11.40 inches of rain, and flash flooding resulted in two deaths. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2001: A weak, F0 tornado passed in the sight of the Washington Monument. Soon after, an F3 tornado struck College Park, Maryland.

2005 - Early in the morning, major Hurricane Rita came ashore near the Texas/Louisiana border

 

2005: Early on the morning of September 24, 2005, Major Hurricane Rita came ashore near the Texas/Louisiana border. 

 

 

[winterwx21]

Keeping my fingers crossed that we get enough to water things. HRRR and NAM 3km tonight have this area near the edge of the more significant rain. We could get a half inch or almost nothing here. 

[Monty]

Watch the HRRR steal your rain right before your eyes!

[Allsnow]

7 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Keeping my fingers crossed that we get enough to water things. HRRR and NAM 3km tonight have this area near the edge of the more significant rain. We could get a half inch or almost nothing here. 

Looks like nothing. Unbelievable 

[SACRUS]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like nothing. Unbelievable 

 

truly remarkable pattern we are in.  its like a Bizzarro micro SO -Cal climate in the region.  It is just a matter of time - has to be.

[SACRUS]

 

65 / 57 cloudy.    Helene to the south of us, ridge to the north and stuck in the middle with not much but clouds and little rain to show for it the next 5 - 7 days.  Warmer Thu and Fri but clouds will likely keep it below or at 80 as Helene pumps heights and humidity northeast then does a round about left.   

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

7 day

 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

truly remarkable pattern we are in.  its like a Bizzarro micro SO -Cal climate in the region.  It is just a matter of time - has to be.

I see no significant rain in our area for the next two weeks. Atlantic hurricane season is not happening to potentially save us from the drought 

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

7 day

 

Hope so.  We'll see if most of that "evaporates" as we get closer to go time.

I am not overly optimistic.

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I see no significant rain in our area for the next two weeks. Atlantic hurricane season is not happening to potentially save us from the drought 

100% correct we'll be getting no help from the tropics anytime soon that's for sure.

[SACRUS]

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Hope so.  We'll see if most of that "evaporates" as we get closer to go time.

I am not overly optimistic.

It not much and mostly north of the metro areas.  We'll see if the ridge moves and trough or cutoff transitions into the area.

[kat5hurricane]

13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Fall feel this evening 

Beautiful night again last night, been a lot of those over the last few weeks. I like summer but this time of the year is the best weather IMO.

[Allsnow]

ATL in trouble