doncat Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 84/65 split today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 This is the third straight mid/late week timeframe where the models had several runs suggesting serious rainfall for NJ/NYC. The first two did not materialize, the ridge won out. Next Wed-Thu we will try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 I know it’s dry, but this has been the nicest September I can remember in some time. I mean gem, after gem. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 8 hours ago, SACRUS said: 83 / 53 more sun than projected. Mid 80s today, maybe the warmest to next spring. Onshore entourage continues keeping it near normal overall the next week. We'll see if any of the potential tropical system in the GOM and Upper low bring the rain. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif I'm getting a feeling of an extremely warm second period in October from around the 6th-10th. We'll see, lots can and will change. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Better than the last 2 winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said: I know it’s dry, but this has been the nicest September I can remember in some time. I mean gem, after gem. Yeah I completely agree. Reminds me of October '21, albeit a month earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 Highs: EWR: 87 JFK: 87 PHL: 87 New Brnswck: 85 TEB: 85 TTN: 85 LGA: 85 ACY: 84 ISP: 84 NYC: 84 BLM: 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 7 hours ago, cleetussnow said: Better than the last 2 winters. Alaska cold is our nemesis. We want to see them bake. Keeping expectations low… it’s almost a lock for an above normal temp winter but we can always sneak in a well timed juiced up system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Alaska cold is our nemesis. We want to see them bake. Keeping expectations low… it’s almost a lock for an above normal temp winter but we can always sneak in a well timed juiced up system. We have a better chance this winter with the Nina not being strong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 We'll see...For next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Typical cut and paste Nina map. But of course it hasn’t been wrong the last nearly 10 winters, the N Plains and Rockies are the place that has remained cold and rest of the country warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 1 hour ago, doncat said: We'll see...For next week. Hopefully the 06z gfs is wrong. It has <.5" it's entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Hopefully the 06z gfs is wrong. It has <.5" it's entire run Missing to the east and west the next two days. Boston getting rain today and DCA tonight… ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 Euro was worst model. Which one nailed everything well east? Good to know for fall/winter storms coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Euro was worst model. Which one nailed everything well east? Good to know for fall/winter storms coming 3K NAM very good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 13 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I'm getting a feeling of an extremely warm second period in October from around the 6th-10th. We'll see, lots can and will change. WX/PT great call on this week being dry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 48 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Euro was worst model. Which one nailed everything well east? Good to know for fall/winter storms coming The Euro has been struggling with East Coast low tracks since the blizzard miss in January 2015. The model had the big win with Sandy’s track back in 2012 and was the first model to show the Nemo phase in February 2013. This lead to the model taking on a legendary status. But there appears to have been some upgrades in 14 and 15 which caused it to struggle. The next big error was with the historic Jan 2016 snowstorm. Was too suppressed with the heavy snows forecast to remain to our south. Then other issues with low tracks being too close to the coast like the other day have been occurring. A suppressed bias has also been occurring like in early February 2021 and other more recent events. Not sure exactly changed with the model. It’s a bit unusual that it’s the top scoring model for North America and the world. But it struggles with East Coast storm tracks. Would be nice if we had someone from the modeling center join these threads and go over what they think is the issue. My guess is that it’s related to the convection scheme and interactions with the Gulf Stream and the North American landmass to the West. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 53 minutes ago, FPizz said: great call on this week being dry And he also called for warmer than normal temps this week when other forecasts were cooler. Great job by WX/PT! We won't see 87 like yesterday, but another warm one today. It's 80 degrees here right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: And he also called for warmer than normal temps this week when other forecasts were cooler. Great job by WX/PT! We won't see 87 like yesterday, but another warm one today. It's 80 degrees here right now. Yup, agreed. 78 here right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 Models starting to loose the rain next week as the block is to strong 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 16 hours ago, Monty said: This is the third straight mid/late week timeframe where the models had several runs suggesting serious rainfall for NJ/NYC. The first two did not materialize, the ridge won out. Next Wed-Thu we will try again. And just like that the GFS12z says it doesn't rain the entire length of the run. Cool, cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 It will be interesting if we get an early Frost and leaf fall, what that will mean for trees and shrubs if shallow rooted hardwoods don't get a drink for the last 45 days of the growing season. As others have noted there's a corridor in between Flemington and Princeton that have missed almost all the rain this summer, and now this. Hopewell-Montgomery area starting to look like the moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 Need one of these tropical threats to pan out-some remnant rains would do the trick... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 81 / 60 partly cloudy. Looks like a nice weekend coming up and through Monday before potential break in the dryness between Tue - Sat next week, upper low / trough move through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 20 Author Share Posted September 20 We have had overall quiet weather around here since the tail end August. We will have to see if rain/storm chances increase as we head into the last 10 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 beautiful block just 4 months too early LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 It will be variably cloudy and somewhat cooler tomorrow and Saturday. A few showers are possible on parts of Long Island and eastern Connecticut. A fresh shot of cooler air could arrive for Sunday. Temperatures could top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the middle of next week before a slow warming trend commences. Showers are also possible during the second half of next week. Early long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly (2010), as was the case with the September 20th teleconnections. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was +3.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.389 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.8° (0.4° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 Had a high temp of 84 here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 not much to do but go outside hey look tomorrow is 80, sunny, and dry lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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