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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

When it’s been dry for an extended period better to bet on more of the same. I think I’m going g to turn into a sprinkler…

I actually just thought the same thing. I’m putting them on.

 

frankly, I’m enjoying the Montana like weather. Doesnt get better than we have had this month. Let the grass turn to hay :)

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On 9/13/2024 at 5:55 PM, RU848789 said:

No!!!!!!!  We're in OCNJ the next 2 weeks.  At least Sat-Tues looks good...

Thankfully, for us, the models sucked terribly for this "event."  Our forecast in OCNJ on Friday was for a nice Sat-Mon with rain moving in Tuesday, putting down 2-4", depending on the model.  Then the start time kept getting pushed back and Tuesday turned out warm and dry, albeit mostly cloudy and we had the same thing today.  Forecast was still calling for 1/2-1" tonight into Thursday, as of the early afternoon, but the latest update has decreased this to about 1/4".  I know the region needs rain, but our vacation didn't, lol.  And our weather here looks pretty good through at least mid next week; later next week could be pretty wet, but that's a long way off...

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Some moisture from the southeast could bring some showers to the northern Mid-Atlantic region tomorrow and Friday. Any rainfall amounts from New York City northward should generally be light.

After a day with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s tomorrow, it will turn somewhat cooler for Friday and Saturday. A fresh shot of cooler air could arrive for Sunday.

In terms of dry weather regionally, today is on track to become Boston's 29th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. That would be tied for the 4th longest dry stretch on record. Records go back to 1872. Measurable rainfall is likely in Boston late tonight and tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +1.37 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.127 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.5° below normal).

 

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We will probably need some help from the tropics next week to see a pickup in the rainfall. The best bet would be a system in the gulf with some type of inverted trough or PRE extending northward into the region. Then the rest of the forecast into early October would be contingent on development and track details. 
 

IMG_1284.thumb.png.3e12421ce89ce833aca21b1aece269fa.png
IMG_1285.thumb.png.58c7b6b994cf4ff9ac2af9e81e38188d.png

 

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Dormant here too. The skunks destroyed a portion of my front lawn, so I reseeded last weekend and have watered twice daily. I was counting on rain yesterday that never happened. Good thing I did not overseed and aerate the rest of the lawn this year.

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After the historic flood in Suffolk last month September is off to the driest start on record at Islip. 
 

Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024-09-18 0.06 0
2 2019-09-18 0.33 0
- 1986-09-18 0.33 0
3 1985-09-18 0.36 0
4 1983-09-18 0.38 0
5 1979-09-18 0.49 0
6 1997-09-18 0.54 0
7 2001-09-18 0.64 0
8 1994-09-18 0.68 0
9 1965-09-18 0.69 0
10 1982-09-18 0.70 0
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9 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

story of this summer was missed opportunities, model busts, and underperformers.  tons of humidity a few months ago that didn’t bring much rain and now this lull.

depends where you are-north of NYC got alot of rain up til the 8/19 event but it's been bone dry since then-I got .50 on 9/7 but nothing since then

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24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Mid summer vibe across the landscape currently. 

Yeah, the drier pattern here after the very wet summer is becoming evident now. Lawns have started turning brown with considerable leaf drop. Tough to get a happy medium these days between the brief dry patterns and big deluges. 

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