Allsnow Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 Latest hrrr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Latest hrrr Yeah I was just gonna mention that too. Maybe the Euro wasn't crazy afterall, but who knows. I have no idea what to expect tomorrow, but hopefully we'll get a good soaking. Man do we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 Nams There is more after this. 3knam has some showers friday morning but nothing like regular nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 Records: Highs: EWR: 95 (1991) NYC: 93 (1991) LGA: 95 (1991) JFK: 90 (1991) Lows: EWR: 44 (1950) NYC: 45 (1986) LGA: 48 (1986) JFK: 48 (1958) Historical: 1932 - Concord NH was drenched with 5.97 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for that location (16th- 17th). (The Weather Channel) 1963 - Nearly two and a half inches of rain fell at Yuma AZ in 24 hours. It was the most intense rain for Yuma during the period between 19S09 and 1977. (The Weather Channel) 1965 - A storm produced a band of heavy snow across parts of Wyoming. Totals of 23 inches at Rawlins and 20.7 inches at Lander easily surpassed previous snowfall record totals for so early in the season. (15th-17th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Heavy rain in southwestern Pennsylvania forced evacuation of twenty homes along Four Mile Run Creek, near Darlington. Harrisburg PA established a record for the date with 2.11 inches of rain. A cold front in the central U.S. brought freezing temperatures to parts of Montana and Wyoming. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Early in the morning a tornado hit Kelly Air Force Base in San Antonio, TX, injuring three persons and causing twenty-eight million dollars damage. A second tornado on the northwest side of San Antonio caused six million dollars damage, and a third tornado in Bexar County killed one person and injured another. Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Gilbert spawned a total of forty-seven tornadoes in a two day period, with forty of those tornadoes in central and south central Texas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit the Virgin Islands, producing wind gusts to 97 mph at Saint Croix. Hurricane Hugo passed directly over the island of Saint Croix causing complete devastation and essentially cutting off the island from communications. A storm surge of five to seven feet occurred at Saint Croix. The only rain gauge left operating, at Caneel Bay, indicated 9.40 inches in 24 hours. Hurricane Hugo claimed the lives of three persons at Saint Croix, and caused more than 500 million dollars damage. A ship, Nightcap, in the harbor of Culebra, measured wind gusts as high as 170 mph. A cold front brought high winds to the Great Basin and the Rocky Mountain Region, and thunderstorms along the cold front produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Yellowstone Park WY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2004 - The remnants of Hurricane Ivan submerged Pittsburgh in 5.95 inches of rain in one day. That is the most rainfall Pittsburgh has seen in a 24-hour period since records began in 1876. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 Highs EWR: 81 JFK: 81 TEB: 80 PHL: 80 NYC: 79 ISP: 79 New Brnswck: 78 TTN: 78 ACY: 77 LGA: 77 BLM: 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 High to the north and low to the south with easterly flow to continue for at least the next 10 days. But some indication that low pressure becomes more dominant near early October as the high finally starts to weaken. We will also have to watch the tropics as the MJO becomes more favorable for development to our south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 68 / 63 cloudy and light showers scattered. Some showers / rain perhaps steadier rain along the cost / eastern areas otherwise 0.25 - 0.75 for most over the next few days. Cloudy / humid, warmer side of normal. Pokes of sun Thursday near 80 , cloudy with showrs working south on Friday. Clear/dry out for the weekend with the persistent onshore flow. Could be cloudy 5 of next 7 days. By next Wed / Thu (9/25) next shot at rain and wtach any tropical systems in the GOM potentially ride up the coast. Matter of when the dry reversal happens and is it in a big way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 Radar returns add credence to the idea that the bulk of the rain stays East, off the coast. The 1-3" in SoJo depictions are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 1 minute ago, Monty said: Radar returns add credence to the idea that the bulk of the rain stays East, off the coast. The 1-3" in SoJo depictions are in trouble. Yup. HRRR completely loss the idea of heavy rain in SNJ this afternoon. Looks like we will need to wait until October for rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 39 minutes ago, Monty said: Radar returns add credence to the idea that the bulk of the rain stays East, off the coast. The 1-3" in SoJo depictions are in trouble. Yup, rain shrinking away. Maybe the twin forks can salvage something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 38 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. HRRR completely loss the idea of heavy rain in SNJ this afternoon. Looks like we will need to wait until October for rain How awful the Euro has become 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 39 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. HRRR completely loss the idea of heavy rain in SNJ this afternoon. Looks like we will need to wait until October for rain I wouldn't discount next week yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 3 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: How awful the Euro has become it's always been this way with sensitive coastal low setups 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's always been this way with sensitive coastal low setups The pain of January 2015 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: The pain of January 2015 the morning of the feb 2013 blizzard it had the 2" liquid line back to trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: the morning of the feb 2013 blizzard it had the 2" liquid line back to trenton Don’t get me started with Nemo! I think TTN ended with 4 inches haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 all this blocking and we just get a month of east winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Yup. HRRR completely loss the idea of heavy rain in SNJ this afternoon. Looks like we will need to wait until October for rain Horrible. Keep watering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 The fact that the 3K NAM was never on board with what the 12K NAM had was a red flag 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 Hard to believe that with Francine hitting the gulf coast and moving northward, then a coastal storm hitting the Carolinas, followed by another storm now developing just offshore, that we would wind up with nada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 13 minutes ago, doncat said: Hard to believe that with Francine hitting the gulf coast and moving northward, then a coastal storm hitting the Carolinas, followed by another storm now developing just offshore, that we would wind up with nada. Like Philly getting over 2 feet of snow and Central Park nada. It can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 13 hours ago, Allsnow said: Latest hrrr That would make for one tough forecast, based on the tight gradient close to a very dense population area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 26 minutes ago, doncat said: Hard to believe that with Francine hitting the gulf coast and moving northward, then a coastal storm hitting the Carolinas, followed by another storm now developing just offshore, that we would wind up with nada. Not really surprising since we recently set a new 500mb height record over Ontario for this time of year. All the models have been back and forth from run to run. So no continuity. We will probably have to wait for this blocking over SE Canada and New England to weaken a bit and the tropics become more active. As we have seen here these brief dry soil moisture patterns eventually reverse with the heavy rains being more impressive than the preceding dry pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 51 minutes ago, doncat said: Hard to believe that with Francine hitting the gulf coast and moving northward, then a coastal storm hitting the Carolinas, followed by another storm now developing just offshore, that we would wind up with nada. Great post. Very frustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 4 hours ago, SACRUS said: 68 / 63 cloudy and light showers scattered. Some showers / rain perhaps steadier rain along the cost / eastern areas otherwise 0.25 - 0.75 for most over the next few days. Cloudy / humid, warmer side of normal. Pokes of sun Thursday near 80 , cloudy with showrs working south on Friday. Clear/dry out for the weekend with the persistent onshore flow. Could be cloudy 5 of next 7 days. By next Wed / Thu (9/25) next shot at rain and wtach any tropical systems in the GOM potentially ride up the coast. Matter of when the dry reversal happens and is it in a big way. Satellite is Reminicent of many a winter storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 1 hour ago, Dark Star said: Satellite is Reminicent of many a winter storm... And the dim sun shining through the overcast here...LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 12z euro has no rain for the rest of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCPOW Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 12z euro has no rain for the rest of the month Does that mean it will likely rain since it has done such a poor job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: And the dim sun shining through the overcast here...LOL i could go for dim sum 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: 12z Euro op and EPS. Once again not sure if I buy this. Yesterday's run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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