September 2024

[SnoSki14]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

My early guess is winter will be disappointing. Hopefully, we get 2-3 weeks of legit winter like conditions 

Unless a full scale pattern change occurs, aka PDO flips, it will always be disappointing. The only hope is for brief mismatch intervals. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Unless a full scale pattern change occurs, aka PDO flips, it will always be disappointing. The only hope is for brief mismatch intervals. 

Agreed. I do think we get more favorable intervals than last winter. The pac jet on roids last winter killed a huge chunk of time. 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Lots of oaks browning out and dropping leaves around here

Some good early color around my area and northward.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

8 days at 89 degrees sealed the deal.

Newark actually tied for the most 89° days in a year. This recent era has seen much more onshore flow than from 2010 to 2013. It’s what happens with the strongest ridges setting up near or east of New England. Just enough high pressure to the east allows more SSE flow at Newark. 

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Last winter was mild and ugly but somehow I got over 20 inches for the season. We got lucky with 12 inches of fluff on 2/17 

It was all about maximizing what little cold did come our way which we did with some well timed snow events...

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Unless a full scale pattern change occurs, aka PDO flips, it will always be disappointing. The only hope is for brief mismatch intervals. 

more like unless we stop accumulating 90 degree water in the worst spot for tropical forcing. i don't think we're going to live to see that happen

[qg_omega]

18 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

more like unless we stop accumulating 90 degree water in the worst spot for tropical forcing. i don't think we're going to live to see that happen

MJO 4-6 forever 

[Allsnow]

Icon back to being wet for the area. 

[Stormlover74]

49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon back to being wet for the area. 

Cmc too. Gfs is wonky

[forkyfork]

the cmc cut back from earlier runs though

[Stormlover74]

Euros wet again 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

more like unless we stop accumulating 90 degree water in the worst spot for tropical forcing. i don't think we're going to live to see that happen

Unless we can get 95 degree water in a better place for us. But until this SST configuration in the Pacific changes we’re left with hoping for mismatch few week periods like in 2020-21. Maybe the AMO change can make the SE ridge less obscene. 

[Cfa]

Trees, weeds, and grass drying out, hard to believe after the deluge just weeks ago. From over 11” in August to just 0.11” so far this September.

Loving this string of low/mid 80’s though, I was at the beach until sunset yesterday.

[Intensewind002]

7 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Trees, weeds, and grass drying out, hard to believe after the deluge just weeks ago. From over 11” in August to just 0.11” so far this September.

Loving this string of low/mid 80’s though, I was at the beach until sunset yesterday.

I haven’t really noticed much browning yet here on the south shore of LI but it definitely coming. Only a tenth of an inch this month as well.

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

I haven’t really noticed much browning yet here on the south shore of LI but it definitely coming. Only a tenth of an inch this month as well.

Noticed lawns browning yesterday in the same places that got 10”+. Insane. 

[bluewave]

At least 10 days of easterly flow with a big high to the north and low pressure to the south.

 

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

At least 10 days of easterly flow with a big high to the north and low pressure to the south.

 

Kind of glad in a way.  Has been way to warm for me recently and sunny day after sunny day is getting boring as well.  I could some cooler and cloudy days.

away!

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I still have a hard time seeing much if any of the rain to our south getting in here during the mid week period. I think the dry high pressure ridge will win out with maybe somehow a few light showers working their way across our region (drier especially NYC and points north and east). I think it remains generally on the dry side through this week with continued above normal temperatures. The models continue to flip back and forth. I tend to dismiss the wetter runs. A chance of showers is reasonable in the forecast for Wednesday into Thursday.

WX/PT

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Over the past 24 hours, the extended range guidance has turned cooler for much of the second half of September. As a result, September 2024 could wind up cooler than normal overall.

Dry conditions will likely persist into late Tuesday. Afterward, moisture from the southeast will likely bring showers and periods of rain to the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Showers could persist into Friday. Total rainfall from late Tuesday into Friday should average about 0.50"-1.00" in an around New York City (lesser amounts to the north and east of the City) and 0.50"-1.50" in Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, DC.

In terms of dry weather regionally, today is on track to become Boston's 26th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. That would be tied for the 6th longest dry stretch on record. Records go back to 1872. Some of the guidance brings light but measurable rainfall to Boston Wednesday or Thursday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -9.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.030 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.8° (0.3° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

[psv88]

80 today. Another great day 

[Brian5671]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Noticed lawns browning yesterday in the same places that got 10”+. Insane. 

It's very dry here too-lawns browning and leaves dropping...basically hasn't rained since that event outside of .50 last saturday here

[Allsnow]

18z euro and gfs have nothing 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z euro and gfs have nothing 

Yeah it's not looking great

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah it's not looking great

Unbelievable. Drought conditions continue 

[Dan76]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Unbelievable. Drought conditions continue 

Maybe we make make it up with snow this year.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 94 (1983)
NYC: 92 (1927)
LGA: 91 (1993) 
JFK: 85 (2008)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1975)
NYC: 44 (1873)
LGA: 49 (1975)
JFK: 45 (1975)

Historical:

 

 

1747: Some historical accounts of a hurricane caused flooding on the Rappahannock River in Virginia. A slave ship was overturned, and several fatalities were reported.

 

1752 - A great hurricane produced a tide along the South Carolina coast which nearly inundated downtown Charleston. However, just before the tide reached the city, a shift in the wind caused the water level to drop five feet in ten minutes. (David Ludlum)

1910 - Rains of .27 inch on the 14th and .73 inch on the 15th were the earliest and heaviest of record for Fresno CA, which, along with much of California, experiences a ""rainy season"" in the winter. (The Weather Channel)

 

1945: A hurricane entered the south Florida coast at Homestead, curving northward right up through the center of Florida, remaining over land, and exited near Jacksonville Beach with winds gusting to 170 mph. The following is from the Homestead Air Reserve Base. “On Sept. 15, 1945, three years to the day after the founding of the Homestead Army Air Field, a massive hurricane roared ashore, sending winds of up to 145 miles per hour tearing through the Air Field's buildings. Enlisted housing facilities, the nurses' dormitory, and the Base Exchange were all destroyed. The roof was ripped from what would later become building 741, the Big Hangar. The base laundry and fire station were both declared total losses. The few remaining aircraft were tossed about like leaves.”

1939 - The temperature at Detroit MI soared to 100 degrees to establish a record for September. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - A snowstorm over Wyoming produced 16.9 inches at Lander to esablish a 24 hour record for September for that location. (13th-15th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - The first snow of the season was observed at the Winter Park ski resort in Colorado early in the day. Eight inches of snow was reported at the Summit of Mount Evans, along with wind gusts to 61 mph. Early morning thunderstorms in Texas produced up to six inches of rain in Real County. Two occupants of a car drowned, and the other six occupants were injured as it was swept into Camp Wood Creek, near the town of Leakey. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in central and northeastern Oklahoma. Wind gusts to 70 mph and golf ball size hail were reported around Oklahoma City OK. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms brought much needed rains to parts of the central U.S. Rainfall totals of 2.87 inches at Sioux City IA and 4.59 inches at Kansas City MO were records for the date. Up to eight inches of rain deluged the Kansas City area, nearly as much rain as was received the previous eight months. Hurricane Gilbert, meanwhile, slowly churned toward the U.S./Mexican border. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in the Central Appalachians. Virgie VA received 2.60 inches of rain during the evening hours, and Bartlett TN was deluged with 2.75 inches in just ninety minutes. Heavy rain left five cars partially submerged in high water in a parking lot at Bulls Gap TN. Thunderstorms over central North Carolina drenched the Fayetteville area with four to eight inches of rain between 8 PM and midnight. Flash flooding, and a couple of dam breaks, claimed the lives of two persons, and caused ten million dollars damage. Hugo, churning over the waters of the Carribean, strengthened to the category of a very dangerous hurricane, packing winds of 150 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

2010: The largest hailstone in Kansas was found in southwest Wichita. It measured 7.75 inches in diameter.

 

2011: An EF0 Waterspout moved ashore in Ocean City, Maryland.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

PHL: 84
TEB: 82
EWR: 81
New Brnswck: 81
JFK: 81
ISP: 80
TTN: 80
NYC: 80
ACY: 79
LGA: 78
BLM: 75

[nycwinter]

23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 94 (1983)
NYC: 92 (1927)
LGA: 91 (1993) 
JFK: 85 (2008)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1975)
NYC: 44 (1873)
LGA: 49 (1975)
JFK: 45 (1975)

Historical:

 

 

1747: Some historical accounts of a hurricane caused flooding on the Rappahannock River in Virginia. A slave ship was overturned, and several fatalities were reported.

 

1752 - A great hurricane produced a tide along the South Carolina coast which nearly inundated downtown Charleston. However, just before the tide reached the city, a shift in the wind caused the water level to drop five feet in ten minutes. (David Ludlum)

1910 - Rains of .27 inch on the 14th and .73 inch on the 15th were the earliest and heaviest of record for Fresno CA, which, along with much of California, experiences a ""rainy season"" in the winter. (The Weather Channel)

 

1945: A hurricane entered the south Florida coast at Homestead, curving northward right up through the center of Florida, remaining over land, and exited near Jacksonville Beach with winds gusting to 170 mph. The following is from the Homestead Air Reserve Base. “On Sept. 15, 1945, three years to the day after the founding of the Homestead Army Air Field, a massive hurricane roared ashore, sending winds of up to 145 miles per hour tearing through the Air Field's buildings. Enlisted housing facilities, the nurses' dormitory, and the Base Exchange were all destroyed. The roof was ripped from what would later become building 741, the Big Hangar. The base laundry and fire station were both declared total losses. The few remaining aircraft were tossed about like leaves.”

1939 - The temperature at Detroit MI soared to 100 degrees to establish a record for September. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - A snowstorm over Wyoming produced 16.9 inches at Lander to esablish a 24 hour record for September for that location. (13th-15th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - The first snow of the season was observed at the Winter Park ski resort in Colorado early in the day. Eight inches of snow was reported at the Summit of Mount Evans, along with wind gusts to 61 mph. Early morning thunderstorms in Texas produced up to six inches of rain in Real County. Two occupants of a car drowned, and the other six occupants were injured as it was swept into Camp Wood Creek, near the town of Leakey. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in central and northeastern Oklahoma. Wind gusts to 70 mph and golf ball size hail were reported around Oklahoma City OK. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms brought much needed rains to parts of the central U.S. Rainfall totals of 2.87 inches at Sioux City IA and 4.59 inches at Kansas City MO were records for the date. Up to eight inches of rain deluged the Kansas City area, nearly as much rain as was received the previous eight months. Hurricane Gilbert, meanwhile, slowly churned toward the U.S./Mexican border. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in the Central Appalachians. Virgie VA received 2.60 inches of rain during the evening hours, and Bartlett TN was deluged with 2.75 inches in just ninety minutes. Heavy rain left five cars partially submerged in high water in a parking lot at Bulls Gap TN. Thunderstorms over central North Carolina drenched the Fayetteville area with four to eight inches of rain between 8 PM and midnight. Flash flooding, and a couple of dam breaks, claimed the lives of two persons, and caused ten million dollars damage. Hugo, churning over the waters of the Carribean, strengthened to the category of a very dangerous hurricane, packing winds of 150 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

2010: The largest hailstone in Kansas was found in southwest Wichita. It measured 7.75 inches in diameter.

 

2011: An EF0 Waterspout moved ashore in Ocean City, Maryland.

 

largest hail ever recorded weighed 2 pounds 3.9 ounces and killed 92 people in 1986 in bangladesh.

[Stormlover74]