September 2024

[Allsnow]

 

[psv88]

83 today. Incredible. Let’s keep it going 

[gravitylover]

The disparity between the haves and have nots over the last 15 months is huge. I move around a lot and the differences are so noticable, from parched to lush and back in a couple of hours.

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

DIT? Is that you?

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 94 (2005)
NYC: 94 (1952)
LGA: 93 (1952)
JFK: 89 (1994)


Lows:

EWR: 49 (1985)
NYC: 46 (1963)
LGA: 50 (1985)
JFK: 47 (1963)


Historical:

 

1823: A strong category 1 or low category 2 hurricane struck near New Orleans, Louisiana and went toward Baton Rouge. Its strongest impacts occurred west of New Orleans.

 

1922 - The temperature at El Azizia in Libyia soared to 136 degrees to estbalish a world record. To make matters worse, a severe ghibi (dust storm) was in progress. (The Weather Channel)

1928 - Hurricane San Felipe crossed Puerto Rico resulting in the highest winds, the heaviest rains, and the greatest destruction in years. The hurricane produced much damage in the Virgin Islands, and later hit the Bahamas and Florida. (David Ludlum)

1944: The destroyer USS Warrington was sunk by the Great Atlantic Hurricane 300 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. 247 men were lost in the tragedy.  

1984 - Hurricane Diana, after making a complete loop off the Carolina coast, made landfall and moved across eastern North Carolina. Diana deluged Cape Fear with more than eighteen inches of rain, and caused 78 million dollars damage in North Carolina. (Storm Data)

 

1978: Little Rock, Arkansas saw 8.10 inches of rain which caused major flash flooding. Ten people were killed. 

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Flooding was reported in Vermont, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Greenwood NY received 6.37 inches of rain. A dike along a creek at Prattsburg NY gave way and a two million dollar onion crop left on the ground to dry was washed away. The prolonged rains in the eastern U.S. finally came to an end late in the day as a cold front began to push the warm and humid airmass out to sea. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Hurricane Gilbert smashed into the Cayman Islands, and as it headed for the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico strenghtened into a monster hurricane, packing winds of 175 mph. The barometric pressure at the center of Gilbert reached 26.13 inches (888 mb), an all-time record for any hurricane in the Carribean, Gulf of Mexico, or the Atlantic Ocean. Gilbert covered much of the Gulf of Mexico, producing rain as far away as the Florida Keys. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed over the Central Plains Region, with a record low of 29 degrees at North Platte NE. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Pacific Northwest, with a record high of 96 degrees at Eugene OR. Thunderstorms over south Texas produced wind gusts to 69 mph at Del Rio, and two inches of rain in two hours. (National Weather Summary)

 

2008: Hurricane Ike made landfall as a Category 2 storm near Galveston, Texas. 

 

017: The NWS Office in Reno, Nevada, issued their first tornado warning since July 21st, 2014. 

[SACRUS]

Highs:

 

TEB: 85
PHL: 85
EWR: 84
New Brnswck: 83
TTN: 83
LGA: 82
NYC: 82
ACY: 80
JFK: 79
ISP: 79
BLM: 76

[bluewave]

Looks like the models have shifter to weaker WAR next week so the low can come further north. 588 dm seems to be the key level. Higher and you get suppression like older runs. Lower like new and we get a wetter pattern developing. These are the highest tides with the full moon of the month so we only need around .5 to 1 foot of surge for minor coastal flooding. With the high to north and low to south we are looking at days of easterly flow.   

New run

 

Old run

 

 

Minor coastal flooding begins at 6.5 to 7.0 ft tide level

 

[Allsnow]

Probably the last late summer feel day until next year. 

[SnoSki14]

Need the high to trend a bit weaker to avoid suppression 

[Allsnow]

CMC, yes please 

[SACRUS]

 

64 / 63 clear.   Warmest day of the period.  Mid to upper 80s in the warm spots.  Remaining dry / warm Sun day Mon before clouds and showers by later Tue.   Hung up patters has the cut off SE flow with rain Wed - Fri to break the dry streak.  By next weekend ridge building back in from the top with NE/E flow near normal.  Beyond there both gfs and euro with ridging returning later in the period with more sw flow and continued warm to much warmer.

 

9/14 - 9/16 : Dry / warm
9/17 - 9/20 :  Clouds, rain SE flow 
9/21 - 9/23 : Onshore flow dries out

 

[SACRUS]

Trending wetter 

 

[vegan_edible]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Probably the last late summer feel day until next year. 

[SnoSki14]

We might onshore flow our way into a near normal month.

[Allsnow]

Icon very wet for the nyc and Li 

 

meh amounts in my area 

[SnoSki14]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon very wet for the nyc and Li 

 

meh amounts in my area 

GFS got much wetter 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS got much wetter 

Soaks everybody

[Stormlover74]

Cmc crushes the coast with a sharp western cutoff

[bluewave]

These brief dry vegetation patterns never last.

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These brief dry vegetation patterns never last.

So many ways for us to get soaked here.  Especially in the last 10-15 years when the storms that come drop more moisture and we have these stuck patterns. 

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These brief dry vegetation patterns never last.

Apple picking now. Alot are rotten. We need rain.

[IrishRob17]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These brief dry vegetation patterns never last.

 

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

So many ways for us to get soaked here.  Especially in the last 10-15 years when the storms that come drop more moisture and we have these stuck patterns. 

Granted nothing has actually fallen yet but I agree all around yet somehow it seems like some think we are on the verge of the dust bowl again. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Watching a series of upper lows in the north Atlantic. They have a tendency to flatten the high pressure ridge in the east if they are far enough south. This in turn allows for a little more normally west to east progression of weather systems and also allows the moisture from low pressure to move northward then northeastward affecting the NYC Metro Region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Because of the strong high pressure ridge over us, the moisture and associated low pressure to the south can also be sheared apart if it tries to move to the northwest around the ridge or kicked out to sea. The European model is showing a full variety of these options from run to run. It seems now reasonable to forecast a chance of rain from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. The Euro then rebuilds the ridge to fill in the weakness that was created behind the exiting and dissipating low pressure.

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2024091400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_53.png

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

So many ways for us to get soaked here.  Especially in the last 10-15 years when the storms that come drop more moisture and we have these stuck patterns. 

This record increasing atmospheric moisture has become the become the real deal.

 

 

[forkyfork]

impossible to get that moisture here when it's below 32 degrees

[Stormlover74]

Up to 86

[Stormlover74]

Euro still fairly suppressed. General half to 1 inch with less to the north and east

[MJO812]

Disgusting outside 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 94 (2016)
NYC: 93 (1931)
LGA: 92 (2016)
JFK: 89 (1995)


Lows:

EWR: 45 (1975)
NYC: 45 (1975)
LGA: 48 (1975)
JFK: 48 (1975)

Historical:

 

1928: A violent, estimated F4 tornado, with winds of 200 mph, tore across Rockford, Illinois. The tornado first touched down 8 miles south-southwest of Rockford and moved across the southeast part of the city. The tornado was on the ground for 25 miles with a width varying from 200 to 500 feet. A total of 14 people were killed, with around 100 injuries reported in Rockford alone. Two hundred buildings were damaged or destroyed. 

1937 - The mercury soared to 92 degrees at Seattle, WA, a record for September. (The Weather Channel)

1944 - A very destructive hurricane swept across Cape Hatteras and Chesapeake Bay, side swiped New Jersey and Long Island, and crossed southeastern Massachusetts. The hurricane killed more than four hundred persons, mainly at sea. The hurricane destroyed the Atlantic City NJ boardwalk. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1970 - The temperature at Fremont, OR, dipped to 2 above zero to equal the state record for September set on the 24th in 1926. (The Weather Channel)

 

1977: Severe thunderstorms produced several tornadoes in eastern Arkansas, killing one. 

1987 - Barrow, AK, received 5.1 inches of snow, a record for September. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather from Minnesota to Texas. Thunderstorms in Iowa produced baseball size hail at Laporte City, and 80 mph winds at Laurens. Hail caused more than ten million dollars damage to crops in Iowa. Thunderstorms in Missouri produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Missouri City and Kansas City. A thunderstorm in Texas deluged the town of Fairlie with two inches of rain in just two hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Hurricane Gilbert made the first of its two landfalls on Mexico, producing 170 mph winds at Cozumel. (The Weather Channel)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Texas panhandle during the evening hours. One thunderstorm spawned a strong (F-2) tornado in the southwest part of Amarillo, and deluged the area with five inches of rain. The heavy rain left roads under as much as five feet of water, and left Lawrence Lake a mile out of its banks. Hurricane Gilbert lost some of its punch crossing the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Its maximum winds diminished to 120 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed across the south central U.S. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Raton NM with a reading of 30 degrees. The afternoon high of 59 degrees at Topeka KS marked their third straight record cool maximum temperature. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle WA reported a record eight days in a row of 80 degree weather in September. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

2005: Hurricane Ophelia caused some damage and beach erosion along the United States coastline from Florida to North Carolina. The closest approach occurred on September 14 and 15 with its western eyewall crossing land and the eye remaining just offshore in the Carolinas. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Charleston, South Carolina.

 

2008: Hurricane Ike became extratropical on this day. The St. Louis Metropolitan Area experienced hurricane conditions, with Ike's remnants inflicting severe damage to homes. Several areas in Illinois and Indiana, already flooded by the frontal boundary to the north, saw significant additional rainfall. Due to flooding in Chicago, a state of emergency was declared for Cook County due to flooding of the Des Plaines River. Hurricane-force wind gusts were reported to the east of the center across parts of Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania with significant wind damage including structural damage to buildings and trees.

[SACRUS]