FPizz Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Complete opposite of what was expected Most scholors, Mets and pros online admit they don't really know, and muse on why the season has been quiet. Anyone's guess is just as valid as others, pick your fighter. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Raining in brightwaters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (2018) NYC: 97 (1881) LGA: 96 (2018) JFK: 93 (2023) Lows: EWR: 48 (1938) NYC: 48 (1924) LGA: 53 (1988) JFK: 52 (1963) Historical: 1667: The “dreadful hurricane of 1667” is considered one of the most severe hurricanes ever to strike Virginia. On the first, this same storm was reported in the Lesser Antilles. The hurricane devastated St. Christopher as no other storm had done before. The "great storm" went on to strike the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Area crops (including corn and tobacco) were beaten into the ground. 1776: Called the Pointe-à-Pitre hurricane, this storm is one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes on record. While the intensity and complete track are unknown, this storm struck Guadeloupe on this day, killing 6,000. 1881 - Forest fires in Michigan and Ontario resulted in 'Yellow Day' in the northeastern U.S. Twenty villages in Michigan burned, and a total of 500 persons were killed. Fires caused 2.3 million dollars in losses near Lake Huron. Candles were needed at the noon hour. (David Ludlum) 1881: Forest fires in “The Thumb” of Michigan and Ontario resulted in “Yellow Day” over the New England states. Twenty villages and over a million acres burned in Michigan. The smoke from these fires caused the sky to appear yellow over several New England cities. Twilight appeared at noon on this day. 1929 - Iowa's earliest snow of record occurred as a few flakes were noted at 9 AM at Alton. (The Weather Channel) 1933: The remnant low of the Treasure Coast Hurricane dumped 10.33" of rain in Charleston, which is the second-highest 24-hour rainfall total on record for the downtown station. The storm produced wind gusts of 51 mph and also spawned a tornado near the city. 1987 - Thunderstorms produced more than seven inches of rain in Georgia. Four persons drowned, and two others suffered injury, as three couples attempted to cross Mills Stone Creek at Echols Mill in their automobile. Smoke from forest fires in California and Oregon spread across Utah into western Colorado. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed across the north central and northeastern U.S. Thirty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Joseph MO with a reading of 38 degrees. A low of 44 degrees at Indianapolis IN was their coolest reading of record for so early in the season. The mercury dipped to 31 degrees at Hibbing MN and Philips WI. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - An early afternoon thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 104 mph at Winterhaven, FL, flipping over four airplanes, and damaging five others. The high winds also damaged a hangar and three other buildings. A cold front produced strong winds and blowing dust in the Northern High Plains, with gusts to 54 mph reported at Buffalo SD. Powerful Hurricane Gabrielle and strong easterly winds combined to create waves up to ten feet high along the southern half of the Atlantic coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2003: Hurricane Isabel was first named on September 6th, 2003. It would reach Category 5 status and eventually make landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2. 2017: Category 5 Hurricane Irma affected the US Virgin Island and Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds were at 180 mph when the storm hit St. Thomas & St. John. Catastrophic damage was reported over the US Virgin Island & significant damage over Puerto Rico, especially over Culebra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Another autumnal air mass will move into the region this weekend. Showers are possible tomorrow as a strong cold front pushes across the region. In its wake, the mercury will struggle to reach 70° in the New York City area on Sunday. Parts of the region will also see their coolest temperatures so far this fall on Sunday and/or Monday morning. Overall, the first week of September will likely wind up somewhat cooler than normal. A ridge in the West, trough in the East pattern could persist into the second week of the month allowing for additional cooler than normal days. However, a warming trend could develop early next week. As a result of the persistent Western ridging, parts of the West that just went through their hottest summer on record could remain abnormally warm through the first half of the month. Phoenix (93°) and Palm Springs (95°) were on track to record their highest minimum temperatures on record for September. Phoenix also reached 110° for its record 57th day this year. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around August 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was +1.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.434 today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Very light drizzle in Garwood, central Union County NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 One more cool down before we get the next 590 dm heat ridge and 90° potential this week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 68/ 65 clouds and some light rain and scattered showers. Trough and susbequent front moving through today. Dries out and cools off Sunday with low 70s. Warming next week by Tue mainly low - mid 80s, perhaps upper 80s in the warmer spots Wed/Thu. Overall warmer into and beyond mid month. Ridge builds north and onshore component will limit heat (90s). Euro has a cut off low undercutting the ridge by the start of the following week 15th with stalled out low along the SE and MA coasts. GFS much warmer. 9/7 : Humid/ showers 9/8 - 9/9 : Cooler below normal 9/10 - 9/14 : Warmer to much warmer than normal Beyond : overall warmer - wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Trough west ridge east with the Eur ridge axis more north and allows a weakeness to cut off 14 - 17 period which could bring some consistent rains and potential tropical influence in that period. GFS warmer throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Radar looks lame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 7 Author Share Posted September 7 It’s pretty amazing how quiet the weather has been overall especially the tropics. Starting to wonder when and if the “floodgates” will open on a much more active pattern. Until then it looks like at least another 10-14 days of relatively quiet weather (tropics dependent). We’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 43 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Radar looks lame have to head north of NYC for anything appreciable today-tonight - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: It’s pretty amazing how quiet the weather has been overall especially the tropics. Starting to wonder when and if the “floodgates” will open on a much more active pattern. Until then it looks like at least another 10-14 days of relatively quiet weather (tropics dependent). We’ll see. Have to watch cut off ULL along the east coast like the euro showed as next opportunity for rains in the 9/14 period. If it wasnt for the August wet period / deluge from some in the fist half, we'd be extremely dry 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Uggh crappy day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Uggh crappy day Were you hoping for rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 4 hours ago, bluewave said: One more cool down before we get the next 590 dm heat ridge and 90° potential this week. i’ll put money on it shifting north again. Wash rinse repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 19 hours ago, FPizz said: Most scholors, Mets and pros online admit they don't really know, and muse on why the season has been quiet. Anyone's guess is just as valid as others, pick your fighter. Estimates are 146 million tons of water was vaporized and ejected into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga; that has to be enhancing climate drivers in some capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: i’ll put money on it shifting north again. Wash rinse repeat I hope so, that would open us up to some tropical activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: It’s pretty amazing how quiet the weather has been overall especially the tropics. Starting to wonder when and if the “floodgates” will open on a much more active pattern. Until then it looks like at least another 10-14 days of relatively quiet weather (tropics dependent). We’ll see. Honestly I'm glad about it. This time of year it's nice to have tame weather as we wind down from summer. Look at the damage Ida caused, and over a million power outages from Isaias in NJ. Yes we could use some rain, but it's not a drought situation, more of a dry grass and leaf kind of deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Radar looks lame Radar starting to look a little better. Latest HRRR (15z run) gives our area some rain. There's still hope that we can see a little downpour that delivers a quarter to half inch. We need a watering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Radar starting to look a little better. Latest HRRR (15z run) gives our area some rain. There's still hope that we can see a little downpour that delivers a quarter to half inch. We need a watering. Yeah I just came to post the same thing about the radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 19 hours ago, the_other_guy said: i’ll put money on it shifting north again. Wash rinse repeat The upper ridge at 500 mb actually expanded a bit further north from earlier runs as has been the model forecast pattern for a long time now. But we also got more Bermuda high development at the same time to our south. So the areas away from the sea breeze will be the warmest like we have seen all summer. Could be some tropical development in the Western Gulf next week. But the strong high and ridge to the north may really slow it down and maybe cause it to stall out for a time to our SW. So we’ll probably have to be patient a while longer for another big tropical soaking like we got out of Debby. New run more high pressure to our south with Canadian high pushed further north Old run had too much onshore flow with less high pressure south 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 I wonder if we have a shot at a heat wave here Thursday through the weekend. It's more likely upper 80s, but hitting 90 isn't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I wonder if we have a shot at a heat wave here Thursday through the weekend. It's more likely upper 80s, but hitting 90 isn't out of the question. You may have to be inland to be eligible but it's still not entirely clear. The GFS seems to have a fundamental error in developing low pressure (tropical or not) in the Atlantic near the east coast. Most of the other modeling seems to place a tropical system somewhere in or at leasts closer to the Gulf of Mexico which I think is probably closer to accurate. So the question remains how close to us HP will be as to whether our winds are sw or s-sw or light variable going to onshore during the afternoon and evening hours. This could make a 10+ degree difference in temperatures on and near the coast. So at this point best we can say is that NYC and points east will have high temperatures somewhere between and inclusive of the upper 70s to lower 90s. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Been raining here since noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Dews dropping nicely in front of the band of showers on my doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Been raining here since noon Raining here as well. 0.25” so far. Temp has crashed down to 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Just some sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Wind gusting to 32 MPH - dry front here see rain in QUEens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 Turned into a healthy line east of 95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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