gravitylover Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 11 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Really getting dry out there. I thought September was a lock for major rains, then the tropics failed big time! So far... 43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yeah we'll be lucky to get .25 and even that might be a stretch. Hurricane season is a bust, I think that's obvious at this point. Kinda like calling winter over on Feb 15 then we get two blockbusters after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: So far... Kinda like calling winter over on Feb 15 then we get two blockbusters after that. Certainly possible but we are not getting 30 storms and the hyperactive season many forecasted. That said an Andrew type storm makes it a "Bad season" 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: We need rain. Saturdays front has completely dried up. Where is this active east coast hurricane season everyone called for? northward displaced itcz is causing issues 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: We need rain. Saturdays front has completely dried up. Where is this active east coast hurricane season everyone called for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Our next warm up from mid to late September could get some enhancement when the flow eventually turns more SW and travels across the flash drought to our SW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 On 9/4/2024 at 9:52 AM, Stormlover74 said: Looks like a quick shot at rain Saturday afternoon/evening and then we dry out. disappearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: disappearing Yep. We'll have to hope for a quarter inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 After the quick cool shot Sunday, the warmup next week is looking more and more impressive. We might see mid 80s here as early as Tuesday, and likely highs in the mid 80s the rest of the week. Summer returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Yep. We'll have to hope for a quarter inch It's going to be rough if we don't get a decent soaking Saturday. Long dry period after that. Lots of watering will be needed next week as we warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Records: Highs: EWR: 95 (2023) year ago heatr NYC: 94 (1985) LGA: 93 (1985) JFK: 94 (1961) Lows: EWR: 53 (2000) NYC: 51 (1963) LGA: 54 (2000) JFK: 52 (1989) Historical: 1925 - The temperature at Centerville, AL, soars to 112 degrees to establish a state record. Every reporting station in Alabama was 100 degrees or above that afternoon. (The Weather Channel) 1929: Early season snowfall occurred in the mountains of Wyoming and the Black Hills of South Dakota on September 5th and 6th. The highest snowfall amount was 16 inches in Fox Park, Wyoming. 1933 - A hurricane hit Brownsville, TX, killing forty persons and causing 12 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1933: A Category 3 hurricane made landfall on South Padre Island, Texas during the late evening hours on September 4th, or Labor Day. The storm caused 40 fatalities and nearly $17 million in damages. With the storm making landfall during a holiday weekend, fatalities could have been much higher. The following is from the report of the official in charge at Corpus Christi, Texas: "Probably never before in the history of Texas hurricanes have such widespread and early warnings been given as were received from Washington in advance of this one. The telegram of Saturday, September 2, warning all persons to avoid inaccessible places over the weekend probably saved thousands of lives." 1950 - Hurricane Easy produced the greatest 24 hour rainfall in U.S. weather records. The hurricane deluged Yankeetown, on the upper west coast of Florida, with 38.7 inches of rain. (David Ludlum) 1950: Hurricane Easy was an erratic and unpredictable hurricane that lingered over the Tampa Bay area for days, dropping torrential rains and causing damage especially in Cedar Key, Florida where the storm eventually made landfall. This hurricane dumped 38.7 inches of rain in 24 hours in Yankeetown, a record for the U.S. at the time, and caused $3.3 million in damage. Total rainfall amounts in Yankeetown was 45.20 inches. 1975 - Strong winds reduced visibilities to near zero in blowing dust resulting in a 22-car chain reaction accident on Interstate 10 near Toltec AZ. Two persons were killed, and 14 others were injured. (The Weather Channel) 1978: Tropical Depression Norman became the most recent tropical system to make landfall in California near Long Beach as an extra-tropical storm. 1987 - Thunderstorms over the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast States drenched Charleston, SC, with 5.50 inches of rain, and a total of 13.50 inches in two days, flooding homes, and leaving roads and bridges under water. (The National Weather Summary) A tropical storm which formed off the South Atlantic coast was responsible for torrential rains over coastal regions of South Carolina. Between the 30th of August and the 8th of September, Charleston SC received 18.44 inches of rain. The heavy rains caused extensive flooding around the city of Charleston, seriously damaged cotton crops in the eastern part of the state, and resulted in an unusually high number of mosquitos. (Storm Data) 1988 - Five days of heavy rain commenced in west central Florida. Up to 20 inches of rain in four days resulted in extensive urban flooding, and evacuation of 1000 homes. Flooding claimed four lives, and caused more than five million dollars proprty damage. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced six to ten inches of rain in south central Kansas between 6 AM and Noon. Serious flooding was reported around Wichita, with water four feet deep along some roads. A cold front crossing the Northern High Plains Region produced wind gusts to 63 mph at Sheridan WY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1996: Hurricane Fran made landfall near the tip of Cape Fear, North Carolina with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph on the evening of September 5th. Fran was responsible for 26 deaths and was at the time the most expensive natural disaster ever in North Carolina’s history. 2017: Hurricane Irma became a category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph. This made Irma one of strongest hurricane ever observed in the open Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: It's going to be rough if we don't get a decent soaking Saturday. Long dry period after that. Lots of watering will be needed next week as we warm up. No model has anything close to a decent soaking from this cold frontal passage....quick hit of rain at best to settle the dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No model has anything close to a decent soaking from this cold frontal passage....quick hit of rain at best to settle the dust Yeah it's not looking great. At this point I would be happy to get a quarter inch, just enough to give the vegetable garden a decent watering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Not used to be up before 8am, driving son to school and only 60 degrees out. What a gorgeous morning and rest of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Another comfortable day lies ahead for tomorrow. Temperatures will again top out in the middle and upper 70s. Showers are possible on Saturday as a strong cold front pushes across the region. In its wake, the mercury will struggle to reach 70° in the New York City area on Sunday. Overall, the first week of September will likely wind up somewhat cooler than normal. A ridge in the West, trough in the East pattern could persist into the second week of the month allowing for additional cooler than normal days. However, a warming trend could develop early next week. As a result of the persistent Western ridging, parts of the West that just went through their hottest summer on record could remain abnormally warm through the first half of the month. Today, Phoenix extended its record 100° streak to 102 days. It also reached 110° or above for the 56th day this year. That breaks the record of 55 days from 2023. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around August 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was +0.068 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.247 today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 The latest forecasts are signaling that this will be a record breaking 11th warmer than average September in a row for spots like Newark. Sep 2023…+2.0 Sep 2022….+0.5 Sep 2021….+3.3 Sep 2020….+0.9 Sep 2019…..+2.6 Sep 2018…..+3.2 Sep 2017….+2.7 Sep 2016….+3.6 Sep 2015….+5.2 Sep 2014….+1.6 Sep 2013…..-1.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 It actually feels like September. That was like a light switch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Highs: TEB: 81 PHL: 81 EWR: 79 JFK: 78 New Brnswck: 77 TTN: 77 ISP: 77 NYC: 77 ACY: 76 LGA: 75 BLM: 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Maybe some homebrew tropical activity next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Tropics are starting to wake up big time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 64 / 59 cloudy with some marine layer. More humid. Sun should break through later this morning. Warmer today upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds back tomorrow as trough pishes front through with showers and rain - the heaviest (not much) will be in northern areas. Sunday much cooler behind the front before a pronounces warmup 9/8 through next week. Ridge builds north so there continues to be an onshore influence and while it;; be much warmer and above normal the heat is west and north and limited coming east. Watch for cut of low under the ridge along the coast next weekend and into the week of 9/13. Overall warmer/humid and looking wetter towards the final third of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 phase 5 forever 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 At least tomorrow looks like passing showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: phase 5 forever Sounds like a lot of data input... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 HRRR looks decent for tomorrow. It definitely isn't going to be a significant event, but we'll have a humid airmass in place and there could be some downpours that deliver a quarter to half inch. Looks pretty early during the afternoon too. Very dry out there right now and we have a very long dry period after tomorrow, so hoping to get a decent watering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Starting on Tuesday, it looks like high temps in the 80s until further notice. Warm weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Starting on Tuesday, it looks like high temps in the 80s until further notice. Warm weather pattern. Will quickly erase the negative departures of the 1st ten days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Clouds clinging to the area. Had a feeling the recent mostly sunny then the becoming sunny forecasts were in trouble today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 6 hours ago, bluewave said: We will probably have to be patient due to the ITCZ shift and dry air resulting in the first time since 1968 with no new named storms between August 13th and September 3rd. Complete opposite of what was expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Complete opposite of what was expected Hyperactive to hyperdead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Complete opposite of what was expected There has been plenty going on the last few years with record global temperature spike. This jump in temperatures was above and beyond what any model was forecasting. The hurricane season last year greatly exceeded any seasonal forecasts. It was the first 20+ named storm season with such a strong El Niño. Then we started noticing much more SAL than usual earlier this summer even as Beryl was able to go Cat 5. Even though the Euro successfully forecast all the dry air this summer over the MDR, it wasn’t able to forecast the record lull since mid-August. At least the U.S. forecast worked out very well for the Euro with the warmer along the coasts and cooler in the middle. So the issues with the hurricane forecast didn’t hurt its skill for the summer temperature forecast. It has been the case with these seasonal forecasts that they have been able to forecast some things very well and miss others. All these competing marine heatwaves are probably making the model forecasts more difficult since the interactions can lead to changes like the ITCZ shift reducing the hurricane count from the earlier forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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