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A cold front was moving across eastern Long Island early this evening. Behind it, much of the week will feature refreshing temperatures and low humidity. Temperatures will mainly top out in the middle and upper 70s.

Overall, the first week of September will likely wind up somewhat cooler than normal. A ridge in the West, trough in the East pattern could persist into the second week of the month allowing for more cooler than normal days.

As a result, parts of the West that just went through their hottest summer on record could remain abnormally warm through the first half of the month. Just today, Blythe, CA reached 110° for the 69th time this year. That broke the record of 68 days that was set in 2020.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +21.34 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.914 today.

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2010)
NYC: 97 (1953)
LGA: 96 (2010)
JFK: 92 (2012)



Lows:


EWR: 50 (1934)
NYC: 51 (1869)
LGA:  55 (1967)
JFK: 54 (1985)


Historical:

 

1859: One of the largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred on this day in 1859.

1862: The Battle of Ox Hill (or Chantilly) is also known as the only major Civil War battle to have been fought during a storm. “A severe thunderstorm erupted, resulting in limited visibility and an increased dependence on the bayonet, as the rain soaked the ammunition of the infantry and made it useless.” From Taylor, Paul. He Hath Loosed the Fateful Lightning: The Battle of Ox Hill (Chantilly), September 1, 1862.

 

1869: Cleveland Abbe issued the first Weather Bulletin for the city of Cincinnati, Ohio. It contained a few observations telegraphed from distant observers and the “probabilities” for the next day. The bulletin was written by hand.

1894 - A forest fire driven by high winds burned down the town of Hinkley, MN, killing 418 persons. (David Ludlum)


1894: The Great Hinckley Fire, which burned an area of at least 200,000 acres or perhaps more than 250,000 acres including the town of Hinckley, Minnesota occurred on this day. The official death count was 418 though the actual number of fatalities was likely higher. 

1897 - Hailstone drifts six feet deep were reported in Washington County, IA. (The Weather Channel)

1914 - The town of Bloomington, MI, was deluged with 9.78 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (31st-1st) (The Weather Channel)

1928: Leslie Gray from the Weather Bureau in San Franciso was the first weather forecaster to be deployed to a wildfire.

1952: A cold front brought damaging winds to Fort Worth, Texas, including the Carswell Air Force Base where thirty-five B-36 planes received damage. The anemometer indicated 90 mph winds before being smashed by debris. 

1955 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, soared to an all-time high of 110 degrees during an eight day string of 100 degree weather. (David Ludlum)

1961: An F4 tornado traveled through parts of Butler and Bremer Counties in Iowa. Unfortunately, there is limited information in the Storm Data entry about this event.  Per Thomas Grazulis in Significant Tornadoes, the tornado began NW of Dumont and ended NE of Horton.  Several farms along the path were "leveled".  It was reported at one farm that fruit jars were "sucked out of the basement" after the house was swept away. There were 7 injuries reported with this event and zero fatalities.

 

1974: Lt. Judy Neuffer became the first female to fly a Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the eye of a hurricane.

1979 - A home in Centerville TN was hit by lightning and totally destroyed. It marked the third time that the house had been hit by lightning since being built in 1970. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Cool Canadian air invaded the Midwest. Six cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Indianapolis IN with a reading of 44 degrees. Hot weather continued in the northwestern U.S. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Hanover WA, where the mercury soared to 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Upper Mississippi Valley. Ely, MN, was drenched with three inches of rain in two hours, and pelted with one inch hail. The heavy rain flooded streets and basements, and the high water pressure which resulted blew the covers off manholes. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the late afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms produced hail two inches in diameter west of Arapahoe, and wind gusts to 70 mph at Luther and south of Harrah. Early morning thunderstorms over Indiana drenched Kokomo with five to eight inches of rain, and spawned a tornado which injured three persons at Bruce Lake. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2017: The temperature at Downtown San Fransico reached 106° setting their all-time record high. The previous record was 103° on June 14th, 2000.

 

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Mostly sunny forecasts should materialize in the afternoon otherwise anything but with mostly cloudy 70 / 55.    Near 80 / low 80s today.  Dry and great stretch of weather a  bit below normal upper 70s / low 80s with much onshore E/ENE flow.  Next trough comes in for the coming weekend and it looks like a cloudy perhaps rain each day but many days to track that.  Looks overall warmer once towards mid month, before that heat is capped west under strong ridge there and troughing into the MW/Northeast.

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 105 (1953)
NYC: 102 (1953)
LGA: 102 (1953)
JFK: 93 (1973)


Lows:

EWR: 49 (2017)
NYC: 51 (1886)
LGA: 56 (2017)
JFK: 53 (1949)

Historical:

 

1882: Possibly the first photograph of a lightning strike was taken on this day by William Jennings in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 

1887: The U.S. Army Signal Service station in Greenville, SC reported a minimum temperature of 50°F. This observation at Greenville still stands as the record low for the day. Additional stations across the state recorded low temps in the low 50's.

1935 - Perhaps the most intense hurricane ever to hit the U.S. struck the Florida Keys with 200 mph winds. The hurricane produced a fifteen foot tide and waves thirty feet high. 400 persons perished in the storm on that Labor Day. The barometric pressure at Matecumbe Bay FL hits a record low for the U.S. of 26.35 inches. (David Ludlum)

1950 - The temperature at Mecca, CA, soared to 126 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of September. The low that morning was 89 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - After teasing residents along the Gulf of Mexico for two days, Hurricane Elena finally came ashore at Biloxi MS. The hurricane, packing winds of 127 mph, caused more than a billion dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Late evening thunderstorms in the Northern Plains Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Jordan MT, and a ""hot flash"" at Redig SD. The temperature at Redig rose from 66 degrees at 10 PM to 86 degrees at 11 PM as thunderstorm winds gusted to 36 mph. Nine cities in the Upper Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley and the Central Gulf Coast States reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins WV with a reading of 38 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 98 degrees at Olympia WA, 98 degrees at Seattle WA, 105 degrees at Portland OR, and 110 degrees at Medford OR, established records for the month of September. Quillayute WA equalled their September record with an afternoon high of 97 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Eight cities in the Gulf Coast Region reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the upper 90s. Houston TX and Port Arthur TX hit 99 degrees. Late evening thunderstorms, developing ahead of a cold front, produced wind gusts to 63 mph at Dickinson ND, and golf ball size hail in North Dakota and Nebraska. Winds along the cold front itself gusted to 62 mph at Buffalo SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002: An F3 tornado destroyed much of the downtown area of Ladysmith, Wisconsin. Overall damage was estimated at $20 million, but there were no fatalities.

 

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13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Ridge west - ridge north - trough underneath into the MW/Northeast

 

test8.gif

This pattern could potentially make for some TS/H landfalls in the U.S. *IF* something would get going.  Clearly there are issues with the ongoing season.  The big numbers are failing and if this continues much longer the high ACE numbers could be in jeopardy as well.  Still, it only takes one and that is by no means off the table at this point.  Next 7 days and maybe 10 look rather quiet.

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Canadian high pressure should dominate this week with good radiational cooling in the outlying areas. But it appears that we are back to the measurable rain on weekends pattern. Looks like the frontal passage this past weekend will occur again next weekend. Comfortable temperatures and humidity running below average for early September.


 

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A comfortably warm day with low humidity is concluding. More such days lie ahead.

Much of this week will feature refreshing temperatures and low humidity. Temperatures will mainly top out in the middle and upper 70s. Fair weather should persist through Friday. Showers are possible on Saturday.

Overall, the first week of September will likely wind up somewhat cooler than normal. A ridge in the West, trough in the East pattern could persist into the second week of the month allowing for additional cooler than normal days.

As a result, parts of the West that just went through their hottest summer on record could remain abnormally warm through the first half of the month. As extreme heat spreads back into the Pacific Northwest this week, Portland could tie or break its record for latest 100° day on record. Salem will likely reach 100° on one or two days, which would break the annual record of 7 100° or above days that was set in 1988.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around August 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +9.03 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.471 today.

 

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