September 2024 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

Deadline is 06z Sep 1st 

Given timing of Labor Day weekend, will contact regulars to remind.

[rainsucks]

DCA: +1.6

NYC: +2.0

BOS: +2.2

ORD: +3.3

ATL: +1.8

IAH: +2.4

DEN: +3.0

PHX: +2.5

SEA: +1.0

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +2.5

NYC: +2.7

BOS: +2.6

ORD: +2.7

ATL: +2.1

IAH: +2.2

DEN: +2.7

PHX: +2.1

SEA: +0.6

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

2.0        1.5        1.0          1.0        2.0       2.0      1.5          2.0       1.0

[Tom]

DCA: +0.4

NYC: +0.5

BOS: +0.6

ORD: +0.8

ATL: -0.1

IAH: +0.6

DEN: +0.7

PHX: +1.1

SEA: +0.6

[Rjay]

DCA: +1.2

 

NYC: +1.3

 

BOS: +1.4

 

ORD: +3.0

 

ATL: +2.0

 

IAH: +2.0

 

DEN: +4.0

 

PHX: +3.2

 

SEA: +2.7

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

0.5       0.6       0.7          0.6        0.0       1.0       2.5          2.3       1.4

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

0.0        -0.1       -0.1         0.8       0.5       0.5       1.8        2.5       2.7

[bkviking]

DCA: +1.0

NYC: +0.8

BOS: +0.8

ORD: +0.5

ATL: +0.3

IAH: +1.0

DEN: +1.9

PHX: +1.8

SEA: +1.8

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -2.6

NYC:  -1.8

BOS:  -1.1

ORD:  -1.3

ATL:  -0.5

IAH:  +0.4

DEN:  +0.5

PHX:  +1.4

SEA:  +0.3

 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

-1.6       -0.7      -0.4        0.3      -2.0    - 0.3       2.0        0.9       0.6

[Roger Smith]

-0.3 _ -0.5 _ -0.4 __ -0.6 _ -1.0 _ -1.2 ___ +2.5 _ +2.7 _ +1.5

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

.9           .5           .1           -.2        .4         .8         1.0         1.4      2.5

[Roger Smith]

 

Table of forecasts for Sept 2024

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

hudsonvalley21 __________________+2.5 _ +2.7 _ +2.6 __ +2.7 _ +2.1 _ +2.2 ___ +2.7 _ +2.1 _ +0.6

Scotty Lightning _________________ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0

rainsucks ________________________+1.6 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 __ +3.3 _ +1.8 _ +2.4 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.0

RJay _____________________________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 __ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +4.0 _ +3.2 _ +2.7

BKViking _________________________ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +0.3 _ +1.0 ___ +1.9 _ +1.8 _ +1.8

so_whats_happening _____________+0.9 _ +0.5 _ +0.1 __ -0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 ___ +1.0 _ +1.4 _ +2.5

___ Consensus __________________+0.7 _ +0.6 _ +0.7 __+0.7 _ +0.4 _ +0.9 ___+2.0 _+2.1 _+1.2

wxallannj _________________________+0.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.7 __ +0.6 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.3 _ +1.4

Tom ______________________________+0.4 _ +0.5 _+0.6 __ +0.8 _ -0.1 _ +0.6 ___ +0.7 __+1.1 __ +0.6

___ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Don Sutherland 1 __________________ 0.0 _ -0.1 _ -0.1 __ +0.8 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ +1.8 _ +2.5 _ +2.7

Roger Smith ______________________ -0.3 _ -0.5 _ -0.4 __ -0.6 _ -1.0 __ -1.2 ___ +2.5 _ +2.7 _ +1.5

RodneyS _________________________ -1.6 _ -0.7 _ -0.4 __ +0.3 _ -2.0 _ -0.3 ___ +2.0 _ +0.9 _ +0.6

wxdude64 ________________________-2.6 _ -1.8 __ -1.1 ____-1.3 _ -0.5 _ +0.4 ___ +0.5 _ +1.4 _ +0.3

________________

Persistence (Aug 2024) ___________-0.1 _ -1.0 _ -0.7 ____ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.4 ___ +2.7 _ +4.4 _ -0.6

===============================

Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is also colder than all forecasts for DEN, PHX and SEA. 

 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Anomalies and projections after 19 days ...

_____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

_______ anom 1-19 __________ -1.7 __ -1.2 __ +0.3 __ +2.5 __-0.7 _ +1.1 ___ +4.2 _ +4.1 _ +0.1

_______ p anom Sep ________ -1.0 __ -0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 __-0.5 _ +0.5 __ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +0.5

will post preliminary scoring estimates next. 

Revised on Sep 24

_______ p anom Sep ________ -1.0 __ -0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +3.0 __+0.5 _ +1.5 __ +3.5 _ +4.0 _ +0.5

Final anomalies _____________+0.1 _ -0.4 _ +0.3 ___+4.3 _ +1.4 _ +2.2 ___ +5.2 _ +5.4 _ 0.0

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Final scoring for September 2024

scores are based on end of Sep anomalies in previous post.

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA_west ___ TOTAL

 

RJay _____________________________ 78 _ 66 _ 78 __ 222 ___ 74 _ 88 _ 96 __ 258 __ 480 __78 _ 60 _46 __ 184____ 664

rainsucks ________________________ 70 _ 52 _ 62 __ 184 ___ 80 _ 92 _ 96 __ 268 __ 452 __58 _ 46 _ 80 __ 184____ 636

wxallannj _________________________ 92 _ 80 _ 94 __ 266 ___ 26 _ 72 _ 76 __ 174 __ 440 __48 _ 42 _ 72 __ 162____ 602

___ Consensus __________________ 88 _ 80 _ 92 __ 260 ___ 28 _ 80 _ 74 __ 182 __ 442 __38 _ 38 _ 76 __ 152____ 594

Don Sutherland 1 __________________98 _ 94 _ 92 __ 284___ 30 _ 82 _66 __ 178 __ 462 __ 34 _ 46 _ 46 __ 126____ 588

hudsonvalley21 __________________ 52 _ 38 _ 54 __ 144 ___ 68 _ 86 _100 __254 __ 398 __52 _ 38 _ 88 __ 178 ____ 576

Scotty Lightning _________________ 62 _ 62 _ 86 __ 210 ___ 34 _ 88 _ 96 __ 218 __ 428 __28 _ 36 _ 80 __ 144 ____ 572

BKViking _________________________ 82 _ 76 _ 90 __ 248 ___ 24 _ 78 _ 76 __ 178 __ 426 __36 _ 32 _ 64 __ 132 ____ 558

Tom ______________________________ 94 _ 82 _ 94 __ 270 ___ 30 _ 70 _ 68 __ 168 __ 438 __ 12 _ 18 _ 88 __ 118 ____ 556

Roger Smith ______________________ 92 _ 98 _ 86 __ 276 ___ 02 _ 52 _ 32 __ 086 __362 __ 48 _ 50 _ 70 __ 168 ____530

___ Normal _______________________98 _ 92 _ 94 __ 284 ___ 14 _ 72 _ 56 __ 142 __ 426 __ 00 _ 00 _100__ 100 ____526

so_whats_happening _____________ 84 _ 82 _ 96 __262 ___ 10 _ 80 _ 72 __ 162 __ 424 __ 18 _ 24 _ 50 __ 092 ____ 516

RodneyS __________________________66 _ 94 _ 86 __ 246 ___ 20 _ 32 _ 50 __ 102 __ 348 __ 38 _ 14 _ 88 __ 140 ____ 488

wxdude64 ________________________ 46 _ 72 _ 72 __ 190 ___ 00 _ 62 _ 64 __ 126 __ 316 ___ 08 _ 24 _ 94 __ 126 ____ 442

________________

Persistence (Aug 2024) ___________96 _ 88 _ 80 __ 264 ___ 34 _ 88 _ 96 __ 218 __ 482 __ 52 _ 84 _ 88 __ 224 ____ 706

(first time Persistence has scored above all forecasters)

==========================

Extreme forecast report ... 

DCA _ not an extreme forecast.

NYC _ not an extreme forecast.

BOS _ not an extreme forecast.

ORD _ a win for rainsucks (+3.3) 

ATL _ not an extreme forecast.

IAH _ a win for hudsonvalley21 (+2.2) and a loss for rainsucks (+2.4)

DEN _ a win for RJay (+4.0)

PHX _ a win for RJay (+3.2)

SEA _ a win for wxdude64 at +0.3, Normal also credited win as final was 0.0

==============================

 

[wxdude64]

Heading out of town for a couple weeks, here are my picks for October.

DCA:  -0.6

NYC:  +0.4

BOS:  +1.1

ORD:  -0.9

ATL:  -1.2

IAH:  -0.2

DEN:  -0.6

PHX:  +1.8

SEA:  -0.3

[Roger Smith]

note: Sep contest scoring is two posts back ... 

 

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Sep 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> 

 

wxallannj _______________ 678 _632 _674 __1984 __ 544 _700 _602 __1846 _3830 __570 _600 _672 _1842 ____ 5672

___ Consensus _________ 650 _636 _672 __1958 __528_670 _606 __1804 _3762 __498 _574_624 _1696 ____ 5458

rainsucks _______________ 733 _689 _617 __2039 __ 542 _651 _593 __1786 _ 3825 __467 _559 _558 _ 1584 ____ 5409

DonSutherland1 _________658 _680 _698 __2036 __ 546 _610 _530 __1686 _ 3722 __562 _544 _506 _ 1612 ____ 5334

RJay ____________________ 656 _623 _588 __ 1867 __ 564 _663 _566 __1793 _ 3660 __518 _579 _553 __1650 ____ 5310

Scotty Lightning ________ 609 _547 _607 __ 1763 __ 424 _707 _669 __1800 _ 3563 __483 _523 _665 __1671 ____ 5234

so_whats_happening ___ 626 _620 _668 __ 1914 __ 519 _ 634 _550 __1703 _ 3617 __ 514 _494 _586 __1594 ____ 5211

Roger Smith _____________606 _582 _488 __ 1676 __ 534 _683 _526 __1743 _ 3419 __ 504 _646 _538 __1688 ____ 5107

hudsonvalley21 _________ 556 _494 _546 __ 1596 __ 538 _660 _646 __1844 _3440 __ 534 _502 _594 __1630 ____5070

Tom _____________________594 _552 _604 __ 1750 __ 444 _622 _574 __ 1640 _3390 __448 _522 _656 __1626 ____ 5016

RodneyS ________________ 490 _614 _644 __ 1748 __ 373 _468 _558 __ 1399 _ 3147 __ 580 _404 _678 __1662 ____4809

wxdude64 ______________ 419 _469 _575 __ 1463 __ 442 _471 _523 __ 1436 _ 2899 __ 465 _467 _637 __1569 ____4468 

BKViking (8/9) __________ 568 _532 _570 __ 1670 __ 409 _557 _505 __ 1471 _ 3141 __ 422 _ 511 _ 537 __ 1470 ____4611 (5187)

 

---------------------  

Persistence _____________ 678 _622 _652 __1952 __360 _634 _530 __ 1524 _3476 _ 188 _524 _568 __1290 ____ 4766

Normal __________________466 _444 _548 __1458 __440 _496 _460 __1396 _2854 _ 398 _388 _726 __ 1512 ____ 4366

Stormchaser Chuck (6/9)_326 _350 _382__1058 __334 _320 _314 __968 __2026 __252 _358 _348 __ 958 ____ 2984 (4476)

Rhino16 (4/9) ____________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ____ 2154 (4847)

George BM (1/9) ___________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 __ 42 __ 160 __ 442 ___ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 ______ 590 (5310)

pro-rated scores for entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal.

Persistence stayed well above Normal and back near last in forecaster group. 

-----------------------------------

 

Best forecasts

* tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) 

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL 

wxallannj ________________3*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 _____ 1 _May

___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 ____ 0 

rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1^ ___0 ____ 1 *____ 1 _ Feb 

DonSutherland1 _________ 1 ___ 1^ ___ 2 ____ 4 *___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2^____ 0 _____ 0 

RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ ____ 2 *____ 2 _ Mar, Sep

Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2* ____ 1* ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2^____ 0 ____ 0 

so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 _____ 0 

Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 2^ __ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 3^ ___1* ____3 ____ 3 _Apr,Jul,Aug

hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 _____ 0 

Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0  

RodneyS ________________ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan

BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 

Normal __________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3^____ 0 ______ 0 

Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1  ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 1 _ Jun

Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2**__0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 0 

George BM _______________0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

July NYC five tied, added to table ^  ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. 

RodneyS also DEN in July 

 

EXTREmE  FORECAST  REPORT 

so far, a total of 52 qualified (37 for warmest, 15 for coldest) ...

... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1, July 2-3, Aug 3-4, Sep 4-1

* tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. 

 

FORECASTER ___________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep __ TOTAL __ adj for ties

rainsucks ________________2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 __ 9-3 ___ 9.0 - 2.5

Roger Smith ______________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-0 __ 7-2 ___ 5.5 - 2.0

Scotty Lightning _________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 _0-0 __7-0 ___ 6.0 - 0

RodneyS _________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 __ 6-0 ___ 6.0 - 0

___ Normal _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 3-0 __ 1-0 __ 6-2 ___ 6.0 - 2.0

Rhino16 __________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0

wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-1 ___ 3.5 - 1.0

hudsonvalley21 __________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 ___ 5-1 ___ 3.0 - 1.0

wxdude64 _______________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ___ 4-0 ___ 4.0 - 0

RJay _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _2-0 __ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0

DonSutherland1 __________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 _ 1-0 __0-0 ___ 3-0 ___ 3.0 - 0

Stormchaser Chuck ______0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 ___ 2-2 ___ 1.5- 2.0

BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 __ 0-1

Tom, swh __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 0-0