weatherwiz Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 Upper-level low pressure dives southwards into New England through the day Sunday while briefly closing off at H5 during the day Monday. Associated with the upper-level low will be an impressive cold pool characterized by H5 temps around -13C to -15C with mid-level lapse rates on order of 6.5 C/KM. This combined with surface temperatures ranging between the upper 70's to lower 80's with dewpoints into the lower 60's will contribute to modest CAPE with MLCAPE values on order of 1500 J/KG. Wind shear in the lowest 10,000 feet will be extremely weak, however, the region should be brushed by stronger 700-500mb winds on the southwestern side of the upper-level low. Based on the above, scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms should develop by late morning to early afternoon across northern New England and progress southwards through the remainder of the afternoon. Combination of unseasonably cold mid-level temperatures, modest instability, and roughly 30 knots of bulk shear should be sufficient for storms to become organized. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail (perhaps > 1'' in diameter in the most intense cores) and strong wind gusts. The weak low-level winds will mitigate the damaging wind gust potential, however, inverted V forecast soundings favor potential for localized damaging wind gusts, especially as any of the stronger cores collapse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Upper-level low pressure dives southwards into New England through the day Sunday while briefly closing off at H5 during the day Monday. Associated with the upper-level low will be an impressive cold pool characterized by H5 temps around -13C to -15C with mid-level lapse rates on order of 6.5 C/KM. This combined with surface temperatures ranging between the upper 70's to lower 80's with dewpoints into the lower 60's will contribute to modest CAPE with MLCAPE values on order of 1500 J/KG. Wind shear in the lowest 10,000 feet will be extremely weak, however, the region should be brushed by stronger 700-500mb winds on the southwestern side of the upper-level low. Based on the above, scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms should develop by late morning to early afternoon across northern New England and progress southwards through the remainder of the afternoon. Combination of unseasonably cold mid-level temperatures, modest instability, and roughly 30 knots of bulk shear should be sufficient for storms to become organized. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail (perhaps > 1'' in diameter in the most intense cores) and strong wind gusts. The weak low-level winds will mitigate the damaging wind gust potential, however, inverted V forecast soundings favor potential for localized damaging wind gusts, especially as any of the stronger cores collapse. Dews into low 70’s.. not low 60’s. Should also start a thread for Wednesday’s NW flow EML event. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dews into low 70’s.. not low 60’s. Should also start a thread for Wednesday’s NW flow EML event. legit not one model shows this mid 60s at best 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 @weatherwiz SLGT risk added at 1730z Day 2 update... 0/15/15 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 yoda stfu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 Did I see the phrase cold pool mentioned? Might have a chance at a T-storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Kind of seems meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kind of seems meh. Norton and Upton beg to differ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Norton and Upton beg to differ. I don’t know, models aren’t enthused. Maybe s coast gets a boost from seabreeze front. Cold pools usually do well so we’ll see. Maybe I’ll go over the HRRR, but typically it’s excited for these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Morning wakeup with thunder. Only light rain here but very active just to the east and north. New Sharon shares boundaries with Starks and Mercer. The heavy stuff was moving a bit west at 8 AM but still hasn't reached here. The bright echoes haven't moved much since I first looked at 6:30 (genny started but I had to take off the panel and manually flip the switch - call to the installer upcoming). This system is acting like the one just to our SW in June 2023 - 4-6" in 2 hours, some infrastructure was just reopened this month. The National Weather Service in Gray has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Somerset County in west central Maine... * Until 930 AM EDT. * At 652 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Skowhegan, Madison, Norridgewock, Anson, Starks, Mercer and New Vineyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Thunder in Marshfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Thunder in Marshfield A couple of small cells between Marshfield and Plymouth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Yeah that blew up out of no where. HRRR looks more active now. Makes sense where it shows convection near seabreeze boundaries. Probably a Taunton to ern CT and RI day? They’ll be stuff elsewhere too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Big bangs 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26 Author Share Posted August 26 Definitely going to need some boundaries for enhancement given how poor the llvl flow is. CAPE though is pretty decent for these mlvl temps and there is good mlvl shear so storms that do develop and get good cores should sustain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: Big bangs Great pic from Brant Rock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Yikes. That cell is really taking off over the water. Provincetown should be getting lit up shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: Yikes. That cell is really taking off over the water. Provincetown should be getting lit up shortly Congrats Whale Watchers 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26 Author Share Posted August 26 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats Whale Watchers Looks like for today they'll be hail watchers 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Buddy in Vermont reporting marble size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Congrats Cape today it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 27 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Congrats Cape today it seems Beast cell in Harwich. RIP James. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 In the MCD they stated about 40% prob of a SVR t-storm watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Southwest NH getting it good now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Pembroke, banger popped to my east. Huge tcu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Pembroke, banger popped to my east. Huge tcu Right on NE wind push. Going to be a TAN-495 to ern CT/RI day I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 Radar filling in nicely for those Worcester and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 About to get into it, been a nice light show for past half hour. Mother in law in Plympton reported about dime sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Looks like for today they'll be hail watchers Or barf watchers. Any thoughts on water spout potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 26 Author Share Posted August 26 4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Or barf watchers. Any thoughts on water spout potential? the shear is kind of weak but anytime you get intense thunderstorms over the ocean I suppose waterspouts can't be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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