September Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS and 0Z EURO... much different tracks through Day 5.

[CAPE]

High pressure to the north weakens/slides off the coast on the GFS. Euro keeps it entrenched.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

High pressure to the north weakens/slides off the coast on the GFS. Euro keeps it entrenched.

With that record-breaking 500mb low over CA, one might think that a scenario with a stronger ridge over Canada would be more likely. But we shall see. I have no idea what will happen

[Weather Will]

I would also say that the EURO does not have a low, at least not as strong as the GFS.

[Weather Will]

Well , well EURO caved to GFS today.  WB 18Z control v. 0Z.

[Terpeast]

Good. Still in a hole precip wise on the year. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ensemble precipitation totals through Day 8.  All the globals onboard right now for a widespread soaking rain event.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z globals thru day 4.  Note first slug of moisture misses to the south.  Most of the Euro is overnight Tuesday into Wed....

[Weather Will]

GFS has been showing a storm in the Gulf riding up/inland/ out to sea late next week....WB 6Z GFS.

[Chris78]

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

GFS has been showing a storm in the Gulf riding up/inland/ out to sea late next week....WB 6Z GFS.

That would be quite the drought buster

[Weather Will]

2 hours ago, Chris78 said:

That would be quite the drought buster

We specialize in big storms 10 days out all year long....

[Jrlg1181]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

GFS has been showing a storm in the Gulf riding up/inland/ out to sea late next week....WB 6Z GFS.

Hurricane Agnes part 2 ?

[Jrlg1181]

That particular gfs run really does look like Agnes from 72..

[yoda]

12z CMC is a nice hit on the 27th into the 28th

Though 12z CMC is driving 80kt 850mb winds across the region at 222 with low 980s SLP in WV

[soadforecasterx]

seems like if there will be a storm it all comes down to the timing of the cold front

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS.  Keep an eye on late next week....

[frd]

19 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS.  Keep an eye on late next week....

How is this for later next week? Still an Agnes repeat as some mentioned?  

[Weather Will]

40 minutes ago, frd said:

How is this for later next week? Still an Agnes repeat as some mentioned?  

I will take a look again after 12Z.  

[WxUSAF]

12z gfs takes a major cane (940mb) into Tampa Bay

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z gfs takes a major cane (940mb) into Tampa Bay

Hurricanes are rarely a threat to TB, right? That’s a serious question.

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z gfs takes a major cane (940mb) into Tampa Bay

Then rakes the SE coastline from JAX to HSE

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z ensembles. GEFS

[Weather Will]

Who knows what will happen here.....WB Day 9 on GFS and Can.  At this point interesting that there is a consensus on a big storm.

[Weather Will]

If I had to put money on where this storm will be a week from now I would take the EURO/ ICON.

[WxUSAF]

Please yes

 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Please yes

 

Makes sense if a -nao october is going to happen, unless the SE ridge links up with it. In which case the cold might not make it that far east. But up towards the great lakes, the likelihood is much higher.

[frd]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Makes sense if a -nao october is going to happen, unless the SE ridge links up with it. In which case the cold might not make it that far east. But up towards the great lakes, the likelihood is much higher.

[IronTy]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Please yes

 

I can already see the twitter headlines...

 

ALEET!!!!  STRONG FALL FRONTS FORECAST AT h384 ON THE GFS!!!!

[Rhino16]

Is anyone planning to try to see the comet around the 12th? Really far out, but weather permitting, I might try and go to a mountain nearby.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z ICON.  Shifted east this run and ridge over us is weaker.  Last picture is 12Z.