September Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

Month of September snapshot from WB 0Z 18th EPS weeklies.  Interesting not seeing any tropical moisture inland.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS maybe another wet Saturday on tap....  GFS likes a storm for now...

[NorthArlington101]

Ah... September. Often our first shot of digital snow. #getHYPED

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS easterly flow off Atlantic on Friday and then a cold front on Saturday.  Drought relief if it verifies....

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS....another storm whiffs....

[Ji]

On 9/2/2024 at 7:19 PM, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS easterly flow off Atlantic on Friday and then a cold front on Saturday.  Drought relief if it verifies....

how is that drought relief going for you?

[Weather Will]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

how is that drought relief going for you?

Another long season of miserable tracking ahead!!!!!

[Weather Will]

I see the experts appear dumbfounded by the tropics.  Models are broken, we are in uncharted territory.  Maybe the random chaos will break our way this winter.  I guess we will find out!

[JenkinsJinkies]

Is there a real chance the area will wind up with less than an inch of precip for the month?

[RevWarReenactor]

Was tracking the Saturday system because of an outdoor event.

Goes from deluge to zippo in 50 hours on the models. Reminds me of winter. Totally unreliable. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS, quiet, dry, seasonable the next 10 days in Mid Atlantic....

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS, quiet, dry, seasonable the next 10 days in Mid Atlantic....

Is there a real chance that there may not be any more rain this month?

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is there a real chance that there may not be any more rain this month?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS.  Great outdoor weather over the next week...

[Terpeast]

Monster torch coming to central/eastern Canada through mid late month 

[WxUSAF]

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Monster torch coming to central/eastern Canada through mid late month 

Yeah it’s a bit odd to see strong Canadian HP build in and temps stay in the 80s

[Eskimo Joe]

44 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Monster torch coming to central/eastern Canada through mid late month 

Getting ready for winter!

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah it’s a bit odd to see strong Canadian HP build in and temps stay in the 80s

It’s weird that they’re getting a torch and we’re not.

[DownS.EasternVa]

26 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

It’s weird that they’re getting a torch and we’re not.

It'll torch, at the wrong time as usual. Like late December thru mid-March. Then we'll have a pseudo winter in Spring that delays the good spring days. Been this way for about a decade now SMH. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

13 hours ago, DownS.EasternVa said:

It'll torch, at the wrong time as usual. Like late December thru mid-March. Then we'll have a pseudo winter in Spring that delays the good spring days. Been this way for about a decade now SMH. 

September torches happen here. Like last year, and 2016, and 2017 had a back half torch.

[WxUSAF]

All 3 globals have some sort of subtropical? Tropical? Coastal storm? Next week now. Euro really dumps some rain.

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

All 3 globals have some sort of subtropical? Tropical? Coastal storm? Next week now. Euro really dumps some rain.

Good...i'm in Alaska next week and i'd like to come back to some semblance of grass

[Weather Will]

Models have teased a big rainstorm numerous times this summer... WB 18Z GEFS has a lot of dry members for next week.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 9/9/2024 at 8:05 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Getting ready for winter!

Yeah, seriously. It seems like when the arctic ice melt stops, these massive ridges blow up. This has been the trend for many years now.. 

[TSG]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, seriously. It seems like when the arctic ice melt stops, these massive ridges blow up. This has been the trend for many years now.. 

I'm very curious what effects the changes in the arctic have had on our local patterns. I've loosely tracked the seasonal ice coverage for the past ~10 years now. There's been some clear patterns but I'm not sure what to make of most of them. One of the interesting points becoming clearer the last few years is that there was a major step change in terms of summer minimum ice coverage around 2007. 

 

You can see a similar pattern in winter maximum ice extent but it's not nearly as pronounced. This largely has to do with the geography at play, the latitudes where sea ice could continue forming late winter are largely occupied by land, so there's a limit on the variation possible here compared to summer minimums.

 

EDIT: @Stormchaserchuck1Found an interesting paper on this exact topic. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc047

"The behavior of Arctic sea ice during recent years has perplexed the scientific community. The ice extent has attained or flirted with new record lows during winter and spring months every year since 2012, raising the specter of hitting a new minimum in September. Instead, however, the ice-loss trajectory took a sharp turn in August or early September (except in 2020), averting a broken record. Responsible for the cessation was the formation of low pressure over the region, which brings clouds, reduced insolation, and winds conducive for expanding the ice cover. The consistency of this occurrence begs the question: why is it happening?

Here we offer evidence that the dramatic negative trend in spring snow cover over high-latitude land areas—one of the most conspicuous indications of anthropogenic climate change—may be an important contributor to this behavior. The early loss of snow cover creates a belt of positive temperature anomalies that distorts the typically monotonic poleward temperature gradient by creating an additional peak. Through the thermal wind relationship, a split jet is more likely to form, favoring conditions that trap and amplify Rossby waves that have been implicated in causing extreme summer weather events over northern hemisphere continents."

 

[midatlanticweather]

GFS making some odd predictions next week. A lot seems uncertain. If this was a snow map, I would be scratching my head and wondering what @Ji did to jinx the forecast! LOL! The Euro looks much less enthused with rain chances. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, TSG said:

I'm very curious what effects the changes in the arctic have had on our local patterns. I've loosely tracked the seasonal ice coverage for the past ~10 years now. There's been some clear patterns but I'm not sure what to make of most of them. One of the interesting points becoming clearer the last few years is that there was a major step change in terms of summer minimum ice coverage around 2007. 

You can see a similar pattern in winter maximum ice extent but it's not nearly as pronounced. This largely has to do with the geography at play, the latitudes where sea ice could continue forming late winter are largely occupied by land, so there's a limit on the variation possible here compared to summer minimums.

EDIT: @Stormchaserchuck1Found an interesting paper on this exact topic. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc047

"The behavior of Arctic sea ice during recent years has perplexed the scientific community. The ice extent has attained or flirted with new record lows during winter and spring months every year since 2012, raising the specter of hitting a new minimum in September. Instead, however, the ice-loss trajectory took a sharp turn in August or early September (except in 2020), averting a broken record. Responsible for the cessation was the formation of low pressure over the region, which brings clouds, reduced insolation, and winds conducive for expanding the ice cover. The consistency of this occurrence begs the question: why is it happening?

Here we offer evidence that the dramatic negative trend in spring snow cover over high-latitude land areas—one of the most conspicuous indications of anthropogenic climate change—may be an important contributor to this behavior. The early loss of snow cover creates a belt of positive temperature anomalies that distorts the typically monotonic poleward temperature gradient by creating an additional peak. Through the thermal wind relationship, a split jet is more likely to form, favoring conditions that trap and amplify Rossby waves that have been implicated in causing extreme summer weather events over northern hemisphere continents."

In 08-09, we started to see N. Pacific High pressure hit record levels. That was the first time that really did it in satellite era. That feature has become very strong at times in recent years, even popping over +600dm in Dec 2021. Since the arctic sea ice is melting on the Pacific side, and holding near Greenland on the Atlantic side, I do think that makes some sense.. especially since when the extreme ice melt happened in 07-12, we started seeing that N. Pacific High pressure become more frequent. It's probably not perfectly linear, but I do think since that whole western side of the Arctic circle melts in the Summer, it would flex High pressure over the north Pacific Ocean. 

[TSG]

18 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In 08-09, we started to see N. Pacific High pressure hit record levels. That was the first time that really did it in satellite era. That feature has become very strong at times in recent years, even popping over +600dm in Dec 2021. Since the arctic sea ice is melting on the Pacific side, and holding near Greenland on the Atlantic side, I do think that makes some sense.. especially since when the extreme ice melt happened in 07-12, we started seeing that N. Pacific High pressure become more frequent. It's probably not perfectly linear, but I do think since that whole western side of the Arctic circle melts in the Summer, it would flex High pressure over the north Pacific Ocean. 

I don't have much to add past what I posted already. Just want to say I appreciate your thoughts/perspective on things, thanks for the reply.

You have any recommended reading on this topic? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, TSG said:

I don't have much to add past what I posted already. Just want to say I appreciate your thoughts/perspective on things, thanks for the reply.

You have any recommended reading on this topic? 

No problem. We've lost arctic ice on the Pacific side and since then they have had Wintertime High pressure in the PNA region, while ice has stayed on the Atlantic side, near Greenland, and we have seen more low pressures in this region in the Wintertime. 

@bluewave Can probably point you in a good direction with literature on the subject. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS through next week, some hits and some misses.  We know how this has been playing out....