Hurricane Ernesto

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ernesto looks fine to me. Solid CDO with an eyewall that was showing up on radar prior to leaving range. Wind field is a little broad but I don’t see why folks think the structure is poor for a “minimal” hurricane. 

Exactly, it’s right on pace. Too much focus on looking for cat 5 symmetry. 
The Largest impacts for the for the US are going to be high surf and rip currents, moderate beach erosion and wash overs. Regardless of final peak intensity this storm is forecast to become very large increasing fetch and thus wave heights. Because it’s mid August and prime beach season this is a dangerous situation for swimmers.

[Boston Bulldog]

2 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

WTF is going on man

Is the basin just fucking unfavorable or what

ACE is 304% of the mean to date. Take a deep breath. 

Current intensity is basically directly in line with forecasts from yesterday morning. Not every storm rapidly intensifies into a CAT-4 in 24 hours once reaching a “favorable” environment - not to mention there is dry air nearby as forecasted.

Lots of fluff and emotional reactions today in this thread. Let’s figure it out people

[Windspeed]

Downcasters SMH
"Intensity guidance is suggesting the chances for a major are decreasing. 0z cycle had the majority in the Cat 3 range with a few nearing Cat 4. 6z and 12z cycles have steadily decreased. If the 18z cycle looks similar I'd imagine the NHC will lower the forecasted peak a bit. Hurricane models still deepen it quite a bit but since the system is so broad I would think a low pressure (perhaps in the 950s or even 940s) may still not be enough to bring winds up to 100kts, especially if it develops a large core like the HWRF is suggesting. I'm thinking this peaks around 90-100kts with pressure in the 950s. Maybe something similar to Earl 2022."

Adamantly in disagreement with this "analysis". They are treating this system as if it were already a former powerful hurricane ( > 960s hPa) that had weakened into a broad tropical storm / hurricane with a sloppy and wide surface sub-pressure regime ~980s hPa. In Ernesto's case, it was an organizing broad trough/circulation with a background mean ~1008 hPa, which is in no way comparible.

For example, if Ernesto's core begins to take off overnight and undergoes a significant drop in pressure, its broad circulation envelope and low pressure trough matters not. The gradient between the former surface trough and anything below 960 hPa in Ernesto's core is going to create a tight gradient, and winds will respond accordingly. Ernesto will absolutely become a major hurricane if its core pressure reaches that threshold.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Adamantly in disagreement with this "analysis". They are treating this system as if it were already a former powerful hurricane ( > 960s hPa) that had weakened into a broad tropical storm / hurricane with a sloppy and wide surface sub-pressure regime ~980s hPa. In Ernesto's case, it was an organizing broad trough/circulation with a background mean ~1008 hPa, which is in no way comparible.

For example, if Ernesto's core begins to take off overnight and undergoes a significant drop in pressure, its broad circulation envelope and low pressure trough matters not. The gradient between the former surface trough and anything below 960 hPa in Ernesto's core is going to create a tight gradient, and winds will respond accordingly. Ernesto will absolutely become a major hurricane if its core pressure reaches that threshold.

 

I respectfully disagree with the assessment from that other user I quoted that Ernesto won’t develop into a major hurricane. They're coping very very hard.

Even though Ernesto started as a broad, less organized system, I think we're seeing the potential for rapid intensification (RI) if the core starts to consolidate and the pressure begins to drop significantly. The broad circulation might have started with a mean around 1008 hPa, but that doesn’t mean we can’t see a sharp gradient form quickly if conditions favor it, as you mentioned.

In similar past cases, storms have surprised forecasters by undergoing rapid strengthening once the core became better defined, even from a less organized state. So, while I understand the cautious approach, I’m still leaning towards a major outcome if Ernesto can tighten up its core and take advantage of the favorable conditions overnight.

Let’s see how this plays out—either way, it’s going to be interesting to track!

[wthrmn654]

17 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

IDK but why is tracking "hurricane ernesto" more satisfying than "hurricane milton"?

dude you need to take a chill pill one minute your talking about one thing then seconds later something else then  crying about the storm then starting the cycle over again... come on now

[wthrmn654]

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows that Ernesto's cloud field is 
gradually expanding, and there have been hints of an eye potentially 
forming in the Central Dense Overcast.  The Air Force Reserve 
mission from a few hours ago found that the central pressure had 
fallen to 989 mb, but there were no indications that the maximum 
winds were any higher than 65 kt.  The initial intensity is 
therefore held at that level, which is also supported by the latest 
satellite intensity estimates.

Ernesto is still moving northwestward but continues to turn to the 
right, and the initial motion is 325/14 kt.  A turn toward the 
north-northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday as 
the hurricane moves through a break in the subtropical ridge, but 
the trough causing this break is forecast to leave Ernesto behind 
later in the week.  The result is that Ernesto is likely to slow 
down while it passes very near Bermuda Friday night and Saturday.  
Thereafter, a second trough approaching from the west should cause 
Ernesto to accelerate toward the northeast, near or just south of 
Atlantic Canada.  The track models are in very good agreement on 
this scenario, but there is a bit of east-to-west spread after 48 
hours.  The new NHC track forecast has been nudged eastward after 
48 hours to be close to the multi-model consensus aids, although at 
this time it is too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto's center 
will move to Bermuda this weekend.

An environment of warm ocean waters (around 29 degrees Celsius) and 
low to moderate shear should allow Ernesto to strengthen gradually 
during the next few days.  Most of the intensity models indicate 
that the hurricane should peak in intensity in about 48 hours.  At 
that time, the official forecast shows a peak of 100 kt--major 
hurricane--which is near the top end of the guidance and close to 
the HAFS-B, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA models.  A weakening trend should 
begin after 48 hours due to moderate shear and a drier, more stable 
atmosphere, but the weakening is likely to be gradual.  As a result, 
the official forecast keeps Ernesto as a hurricane throughout the 
5-day forecast period.

[Windspeed]

Puerto Rico is still experiencing heavy rain from enhanced southerly flow out of the ECARIB due to Hurricane Ernesto's backside feeder bands. Precipitation is not as widespread in coverage as last night and this morning, but training cells continue to develop. Hopefully, heavy downpours subside overnight as Ernesto continues to pull away.

[Windspeed]

An intense convective burst is underway over Ernesto's center, which also looks aligned with the mid-level vortex. That's an impressive burst. I would expect the pressure to begin falling now. The bottle may have just been uncorked per se.

[GaWx]

 This appears to be strengthening steadily as has been expected and there could end up being a more rapid strengthening tonight, all pretty much expected for the most part.

 The 18Z ICON is brutal for Bermuda with 940 mb lowest SLP just to the east and 16-17” of rain due to it slowing near there. Hopefully both of these are way overdone.

 The 18Z GFS is also a near direct hit but with a not nearly as strong 966 mb just E. It has ~12” of rainfall. Hopefully rainfall like this, which I believe would be record breaking, won’t occur.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

[WxWatcher007]

It’s clearly organizing at a faster pace and starting to intensify as a result. Pretty solid pressure drop as an eyewall nears completion as deep convection persists at the center and wraps upshear, and as a result, FL winds have risen modestly. Might be an interesting night of observations coming from recon. 

Another thing to watch is the long term heading, which may influence how much the initial trough positions Ernesto for Bermuda and beyond. 

[Normandy]

If by some luck this strikes Bermuda as a major, then the season this far would be incredibly surgical with respect to landfalls (beryl already smashing grenada as a five)

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

10 minutes ago, Normandy said:

If by some luck this strikes Bermuda as a major, then the season this far would be incredibly surgical with respect to landfalls (beryl already smashing grenada as a five)

 

41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s clearly organizing at a faster pace and starting to intensify as a result. Pretty solid pressure drop as an eyewall nears completion as deep convection persists at the center and wraps upshear, and as a result, FL winds have risen modestly. Might be an interesting night of observations coming from recon. 

Another thing to watch is the long term heading, which may influence how much the initial trough positions Ernesto for Bermuda and beyond. 

All 18z hurricane models now show peak intensity on Sunday, well after passing Bermuda. Peak is in the range 104kt to 120kt

[GaWx]

18Z Euro: 100 miles W of Bermuda giving them 9” of rainfall. SLP is 968 mb, but the run has SLP at 990 mb at 8PM EDT, 10 mb too high.

[wthrmn654]

11 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

 

All 18z hurricane models now show peak intensity on Sunday, well after passing Bermuda. Peak is in the range 104kt to 120kt

Nhc says peaks in next 48 hours 

Most of the intensity models indicate 
that the hurricane should peak in intensity in about 48 hours.  At 
that time, the official forecast shows a peak of 100 kt--major 
hurricane--which is near the top end of the guidance and close to 
the HAFS-B, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA models.

[wthrmn654]

And it's not too be around Bermuda till around hour 72

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Nhc says peaks in next 48 hours 

Most of the intensity models indicate 
that the hurricane should peak in intensity in about 48 hours.  At 
that time, the official forecast shows a peak of 100 kt--major 
hurricane--which is near the top end of the guidance and close to 
the HAFS-B, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA models.

They all also show a slight weakening phase due to shear starting Friday morning, with recovery towards its Cat 3-4 peak starting late Saturday or early Sunday.

If we see Ernesto play out like the 18z HAFS-B, would it be one of the northernmost Cat 4s on record, if not the new record holder?

[wthrmn654]

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

two distinct peaks on most of these runs. It looks like peak #2 has some baroclinic support from the trough. HAFS-B holds onto cat 4 until about 36.5N while Hurricane Ella has a cat 4 best track point above 42N. It would be I believe third place behind Ella and Gladys. Maybe that's reading too deep into one isolated run, who knows

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

They all also show a slight weakening phase due to shear starting Friday morning, with recovery towards its Cat 3-4 peak starting late Saturday or early Sunday.

If we see Ernesto play out like the 18z HAFS-B, would it be one of the northernmost Cat 4s on record, if not the new record holder?

Dude,  you don't just look at hurricane models..... nothing says anything over car 3 consensus or offical.. this was mentioned earlier that it's a consensus...

How about instead of doing the what if, please focus on the facts/ what is known and on the table now.  

00z intensity now suggest we peak at 36 hours. 

 

 

[wthrmn654]

3 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

two distinct peaks on most of these runs. It looks like peak #2 has some baroclinic support from the trough. HAFS-B holds onto cat 4 until about 36.5N while Hurricane Ella has a cat 4 best track point above 42N. It would be I believe third place behind Ella and Gladys. Maybe that's reading too deep into one isolated run, who knows

Again, your looking at models, that are not cool proof, they come with biases.  And errors.

 

 

[Windspeed]

18Z Euro: 100 miles W of Bermuda giving them 9” of rainfall. SLP is 968 mb, but the run has SLP at 990 mb at 8PM EDT, 10 mb too high.

I wouldn't focus too much on the overall run-time intensity for the operationals. Granted, sure, if they're also showing rapid deepening, then it bears notice. But generally speaking, OPs do not handle TC intensity fluctuations as well as the TC models, especially the HAFS suites. I think it's important to mention that virtually all of the TC models do bring Ernesto to major hurricane status.

The most recent runs:
HWRF - 955mb
HMON - 950mb
HAFS-A - 944mb
HAFS-B - 935mb

Obviously, I'm hoping that the HAFS suites are overdoing Ernesto a bit here. However, given that shear is relaxing over the next few days and the core will be turning into a more diffluent environment with trough interaction, at least prior to an increase in mid-level SW shear, the window is there for rapid intensification. Can't rule out Ernesto overperforming while atmospheric conditions are condusive. SSTs are definitely supportive unless Ernesto slows down or stalls (upwelling).

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

Let's remember,  need a couple runs of consistency to raise confidence level for anything.  Also some of the crazy pressures that some models show usually so not get that low... atleast in recent memory. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Dude,  you don't just look at hurricane models..... nothing says anything over car 3 consensus or offical.. this was mentioned earlier that it's a consensus...

How about instead of doing the what if, please focus on the facts/ what is known and on the table now.  

00z intensity now suggest we peak at 36 hours. 

 

 

Same shit happened with other hurricanes that actually exploded

Remember Franklin? JFL

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I wouldn't focus too much on the overall run-time intensity for the operationals. Granted, sure, if they're also showing rapid deepening, then it bears notice. But generally speaking, OPs do not handle TC intensity fluctuations as well as the TC models, especially the HAFS suites. I think it's important to mention that virtually all of the TC models do bring Ernesto to major hurricane status.

The most recent runs:
HWRF - 955mb
HMON - 950mb
HAFS-A - 944mb
HAFS-B - 935mb

Obviously, I'm hoping that the HAFS suites are overdoing Ernesto a bit here. However, given that shear is relaxing over the next few days and the core will be turning into a more diffluent environment with trough interaction, at least prior to an increase in mid-level SW shear, the window is there for rapid intensification. Can't rule out Ernesto overperforming while atmospheric conditions are condusive. SSTs are definitely supportive unless Ernesto slows down or stalls (upwelling).

THIS. I remember tracking I believe Franklin or some other storm where the intensity models were showing 2 at best but the hurricane models were showing a 4

Ended up being a 4. Just fucking lol

[wthrmn654]

Who is this guy?! His names on Google searches....

[Windspeed]

Let's remember,  need a couple runs of consistency to raise confidence level for anything.  Also some of the crazy pressures that some models show usually so not get that low... atleast in recent memory. 

Yes, the big caveat here is that just like operationals often times underperforming with TC intensity, as is their inherent design (not a flaw), TC models often times overperform. There are always caveats and to err on the side of caution. Nothing beats in situ data. We'll need recon to verify if Ernesto is definitely going to start any rapid deepening tonight or obviously a substantial increase in ADT. We don't even have a clear eye yet, though that is probably coming.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Who is this guy?! His names on Google searches....

 

 

Who?

Also

 

On August 28th he peaked at 150 mph

 

DNRD