GaWx Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 12Z Euro: slightly W of 6Z but well E of the 0Z that had shifted so far W from yesterday’s 12Z: this run blasts Bermuda with a cat 2 and 9-13” of rainfall (heaviest W end) with center passing ~50 miles W of W end. Then crosses SE Newfoundland followed by ET transition and a move into W Norway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Still looks like crap, probably why intensity forecast have come back a little. Will a weaker storm change the track much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Downcasters SMH "Intensity guidance is suggesting the chances for a major are decreasing. 0z cycle had the majority in the Cat 3 range with a few nearing Cat 4. 6z and 12z cycles have steadily decreased. If the 18z cycle looks similar I'd imagine the NHC will lower the forecasted peak a bit. Hurricane models still deepen it quite a bit but since the system is so broad I would think a low pressure (perhaps in the 950s or even 940s) may still not be enough to bring winds up to 100kts, especially if it develops a large core like the HWRF is suggesting. I'm thinking this peaks around 90-100kts with pressure in the 950s. Maybe something similar to Earl 2022." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 minute ago, NotSureWeather said: Still looks like crap, probably why intensity forecast have come back a little. Will a weaker storm change the track much? WTF is going on man Is the basin just fucking unfavorable or what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: models have it weaker barely a 3 now as of 12z 00z and 6z were moderate Cat 3s with some nearing cat 4 I think this graphic pulls from a model cycle behind. If you just click though the 12Z runs of the hurricane models, all 4 get Ernesto to above a 105 kt peak strength with the HAFS-A and HAFS-B having Ernesto reach category 4 strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 minute ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: WTF is going on man Is the basin just fucking unfavorable or what Looks like dry air? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Looks like it took a big gulp of dry air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 14 Author Share Posted August 14 Ernesto looks fine to me. Solid CDO with an eyewall that was showing up on radar prior to leaving range. Wind field is a little broad but I don’t see why folks think the structure is poor for a “minimal” hurricane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 15 minutes ago, gymengineer said: I think this graphic pulls from a model cycle behind. If you just click though the 12Z runs of the hurricane models, all 4 get Ernesto to above a 105 kt peak strength with the HAFS-A and HAFS-B having Ernesto reach category 4 strength. my friend the data does not lie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Just now, wthrmn654 said: my friend the data does not lie can't see anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Ernesto looks fine to me. Solid CDO with an eyewall that was showing up on radar prior to leaving range. Wind field is a little broad but I don’t see why folks think the structure is poor for a “minimal” hurricane. Fair enough. I feel like we've been spoiled by a lot of RI hurricanes lately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Just now, olafminesaw said: Fair enough. I feel like we've been spoiled by a lot of RI hurricanes lately the point is that this year was meant to be the "season of a century" I give up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 I am not saying that these modeled representations are going to bear out, but I'm just showing the peak panels from the latest 12Z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Just now, gymengineer said: I am not saying that these modeled representations are going to bear out, but I'm just showing the peak panels from the latest 12Z run. remember forecasts are used as a whole they include many models. if we just use the peak models all the time the world would be a huge disaster if those were always the overall storm outcome lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: remember forecasts are used as a whole they include many models. if we just use the peak models all the time the world would be a huge disaster if those were always the overall storm outcome lol Yeah that’s kinda like using the 90th percentile for snow maps. Edit- Nice to look at but generally never happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 3 minutes ago, gymengineer said: I am not saying that these modeled representations are going to bear out, but I'm just showing the peak panels from the latest 12Z run. ill show you the ensemble intensity map from 6z for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 @WxWatcher007 id say your wish about only analysis and good posts versus reality didn't exactly go as planned. lol been some nonsense posts throughout at times lol maybe next storm!! Edit: and i won't name any names ! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 14 Author Share Posted August 14 Just now, wthrmn654 said: @WxWatcher007 id say your wish about only analysis and good posts versus reality didn't exactly go as planned. lol been some nonsense posts throughout at times lol maybe next storm!! It’ll never happen. I’m aspirational. 17 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: the point is that this year was meant to be the "season of a century" I give up Idk who said that but we’re at 3 hurricanes before Aug 15th with 1 cat 5 and the current storm with a chance to become a major. What did you expect? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: It’ll never happen. I’m aspirational. Idk who said that but we’re at 3 hurricanes before Aug 15th with 1 cat 5 and the current storm with a chance to become a major. What did you expect? people say the chances of this one becoming a major are dwindling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: i think you need to make yourself a cup of herbal tea, sit down, watch some jerry springer or something and relax so you don't taint the image of us Long Islanders being crazy. The New England tropics thread has about two pages of psychology discussion about social media lmao 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd ET ST Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix 2024AUG14 172020 3.6 987.7 57.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF -68.34 -58.08 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 20.97 67.92OES16 25.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Some hot towers popping up in the core the past hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 12Z EPS: centered around the operational with most members in the 970s to 960s near Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd ET ST Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix 2024AUG14 172020 3.6 987.7 57.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF -68.34 -58.08 UNIFRM N/A -2.0 20.97 67.92OES16 25.9 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 3 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: ? sat estimates. weakening flag is on as of 17 z, winds estimated at 57knots pressure of 987mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 4 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: so this is busting badly Should start improving soon I’d bet. It’s feeling the moisture north and it should help with the dry air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 nhc said it would have bouts of bad stuff per the 11am discussion Although Ernesto is moving over very warm waters, the hurricane might have to deal with bouts of increased shear and nearby dry air during the next several days. That said, the intensity guidance shows continued gradual strengthening, and the official forecast still reflects the possibility of Ernesto becoming a major hurricane in about 48 hours. Much of the intensity guidance has come down on the peak intensity this cycle, but for now we'll maintain continuity and wait to see if this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: nhc said it would have bouts of bad stuff per the 11am discussion Although Ernesto is moving over very warm waters, the hurricane might have to deal with bouts of increased shear and nearby dry air during the next several days. That said, the intensity guidance shows continued gradual strengthening, and the official forecast still reflects the possibility of Ernesto becoming a major hurricane in about 48 hours. Much of the intensity guidance has come down on the peak intensity this cycle, but for now we'll maintain continuity and wait to see if this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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