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Hurricane Ernesto


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12Z Euro: slightly W of 6Z but well E of the 0Z that had shifted so far W from yesterday’s 12Z: this run blasts Bermuda with a cat 2 and 9-13” of rainfall (heaviest W end) with center passing ~50 miles W of W end. Then crosses SE Newfoundland followed by ET transition and a move into W Norway.

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Downcasters SMH

"Intensity guidance is suggesting the chances for a major are decreasing. 0z cycle had the majority in the Cat 3 range with a few nearing Cat 4. 6z and 12z cycles have steadily decreased. If the 18z cycle looks similar I'd imagine the NHC will lower the forecasted peak a bit. Hurricane models still deepen it quite a bit but since the system is so broad I would think a low pressure (perhaps in the 950s or even 940s) may still not be enough to bring winds up to 100kts, especially if it develops a large core like the HWRF is suggesting. I'm thinking this peaks around 90-100kts with pressure in the 950s. Maybe something similar to Earl 2022."

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6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

models have it weaker barely a 3 now as of 12z

00z and 6z were moderate  Cat 3s  with some nearing cat 412_detintens.png

I think this graphic pulls from a model cycle behind. If you just click though the 12Z runs of the hurricane models, all 4 get Ernesto to above a 105 kt peak strength with the HAFS-A and HAFS-B having Ernesto reach category 4 strength. 

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Ernesto looks fine to me. Solid CDO with an eyewall that was showing up on radar prior to leaving range. Wind field is a little broad but I don’t see why folks think the structure is poor for a “minimal” hurricane. 

26502538.gif?0.9390150710163062

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15 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I think this graphic pulls from a model cycle behind. If you just click though the 12Z runs of the hurricane models, all 4 get Ernesto to above a 105 kt peak strength with the HAFS-A and HAFS-B having Ernesto reach category 4 strength. 

my friend the data does not lie

 

05L_intensity_latest.png

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ernesto looks fine to me. Solid CDO with an eyewall that was showing up on radar prior to leaving range. Wind field is a little broad but I don’t see why folks think the structure is poor for a “minimal” hurricane. 

Fair enough. I feel like we've been spoiled by a lot of RI hurricanes lately

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Just now, gymengineer said:

I am not saying that these modeled representations are going to bear out, but I'm just showing the peak panels from the latest 12Z run. 

Screenshot 2024-08-14 135657.gif

Screenshot 2024-08-14 135748.gif

Screenshot 2024-08-14 135934.gif

Screenshot 2024-08-14 140021.gif

remember forecasts are used as a whole they include many models.

 

if we just use the peak models all the time the world would be a huge disaster if those were always the overall storm outcome lol 

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5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

remember forecasts are used as a whole they include many models.

 

if we just use the peak models all the time the world would be a huge disaster if those were always the overall storm outcome lol 

Yeah that’s kinda like using the 90th percentile for snow maps.

 

Edit- Nice to look at but generally never happens.

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3 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I am not saying that these modeled representations are going to bear out, but I'm just showing the peak panels from the latest 12Z run. 

Screenshot 2024-08-14 135657.gif

Screenshot 2024-08-14 135748.gif

Screenshot 2024-08-14 135934.gif

Screenshot 2024-08-14 140021.gif

ill show you the ensemble intensity map from 6z for example. 

al052024_ens_inten.png

al052024_int_error.png

 

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Just now, wthrmn654 said:

@WxWatcher007 id say your wish about only analysis and good posts versus reality didn't exactly go as planned. lol been some nonsense posts throughout at times lol maybe next storm!!:thumbsup::thumbsup::lol:

It’ll never happen. I’m aspirational. :lol: 
 

17 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

 

the point is that this year was meant to be the "season of a century"

I give up

Idk who said that but we’re at 3 hurricanes before Aug 15th with 1 cat 5 and the current storm with a chance to become a major. What did you expect? 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It’ll never happen. I’m aspirational. :lol: 
 

Idk who said that but we’re at 3 hurricanes before Aug 15th with 1 cat 5 and the current storm with a chance to become a major. What did you expect? 

 

people say the chances of this one becoming a major are dwindling.

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2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

i think you need to make yourself a cup of herbal tea, sit down, watch some jerry springer or something and relax so you don't taint the image of us Long Islanders being crazy.:drunk:

The New England tropics thread has about two pages of psychology discussion about social media lmao

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          Time         MSLP/Vmax   Fnl Adj Ini   Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd   ET   ST   Cntr   Mean   Scene  EstRMW   MW   Storm Location  Fix
2024AUG14 172020  3.6  987.7  57.0  3.3 3.5 3.5  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -68.34 -58.08  UNIFRM   N/A   -2.0   20.97   67.92OES16 25.9
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5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:
          Time         MSLP/Vmax   Fnl Adj Ini   Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd   ET   ST   Cntr   Mean   Scene  EstRMW   MW   Storm Location  Fix
2024AUG14 172020  3.6  987.7  57.0  3.3 3.5 3.5  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -68.34 -58.08  UNIFRM   N/A   -2.0   20.97   67.92OES16 25.9

?

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nhc said it would have bouts of bad stuff per the 11am discussion 

Although Ernesto is moving over very warm waters, the hurricane
might have to deal with bouts of increased shear and nearby dry
air during the next several days.  That said, the intensity
guidance shows continued gradual strengthening, and the official
forecast still reflects the possibility of Ernesto becoming a major
hurricane in about 48 hours.  Much of the intensity guidance has
come down on the peak intensity this cycle, but for now we'll
maintain continuity and wait to see if this trend continues.
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2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:
nhc said it would have bouts of bad stuff per the 11am discussion 

Although Ernesto is moving over very warm waters, the hurricane
might have to deal with bouts of increased shear and nearby dry
air during the next several days.  That said, the intensity
guidance shows continued gradual strengthening, and the official
forecast still reflects the possibility of Ernesto becoming a major
hurricane in about 48 hours.  Much of the intensity guidance has
come down on the peak intensity this cycle, but for now we'll
maintain continuity and wait to see if this trend continues.
 

09a107da-7cec-4cf2-810d-64e352e600c0.png

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