CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 17 minutes ago, Chinook said: wow, HWRF maxes it at 111kt and 950mb at 114hours(4.75 days) but misses Bermuda by a lot. HMON has 82kt, right on Bermuda. In other words humberto reincarnate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 0Z Euro: unlike 12Z which went 150 miles E of Bermuda, this run swerves W and misses Bermuda W by 175 miles followed by a LF on E Nova Scotia and SW Newfoundland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 14 Author Share Posted August 14 22 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z Euro: unlike 12Z which went 150 miles E of Bermuda, this run swerves W and misses Bermuda W by 175 miles followed by a LF on E Nova Scotia and SW Newfoundland! It’s been really interesting to see how the euro and gfs specifically are waffling with the longer range forecast. I won’t be surprised to see other major shifts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Evident eye on radar. Puerto Rico getting pounded with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Yikes. Getting concerning up here in the Maritimes. Can see from the tracks that if it goes west of Bermuda, we’re gonna have problems especially in Nfld. We watch closely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 20 minutes ago, Hazey said: Yikes. Getting concerning up here in the Maritimes. Can see from the tracks that if it goes west of Bermuda, we’re gonna have problems especially in Nfld. We watch closely. Euro shifted west Keep an eye on it up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro shifted west Keep an eye on it up there moved east at 6z back and forth continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: moved east at 6z back and forth continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Fish for east coast, eastern Canada and Bermuda threat from this point forward. Front coming east slowed down a little so that's why the slight west shift in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 that’s quite a feeder band over PR jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Today's 06z models are still very bullish. No tales from Mumbai loonyland here. ICON: 944 mb at 108 hrs, probably a cat 4. HWRF: 948 mb at 60 hrs with peak winds of 108 kt, a strong cat 3. HMON: 955 mb at 51 hrs with peak winds of 116 kt, a cat 4. HAFS-A: 947 mb at 108 hrs with peak winds of 109 kt, a strong cat 3. Intensification is much more gradual though. HAFS-B: 957 mb at 48 hrs with peak winds of 110 kt, a strong cat 3. These models together would blend to a high-end cat 3 or low-end cat 4 hurricane (around 950 mb / 113 kt assuming ICON's 944 mb would result in ~120 kt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 On 8/11/2024 at 7:51 PM, Tezeta said: maybe we can get a big ocean storm that cools down a significant area of the west atlantic or maybe a storm that affects Brampton, ON What are the odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Thoughts for my bhais in Brampton, Mississauga, Hamilton and Markham In fact, all of the GTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Pretty neat graphic, you can watch an animation of the obs across the island as the storm approaches https://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=ISLAND_AWOS&user= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 14 Author Share Posted August 14 Third hurricane of the season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Bermuda is a tiny target to hit. It fits nearly within the DC beltway with room to spare. Bermuda has had a number of brushes with major hurricanes and a handful of direct hits. But never a cat 4 plus. With SSTs being way above normal, it is not outside the realm of possibility for Bermuda to have a strike from a cat 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Bermuda is a tiny target to hit. It fits nearly within the DC beltway with room to spare. Bermuda has had a number of brushes with major hurricanes and a handful of direct hits. But never a cat 4 plus. With SSTs being way above normal, it is not outside the realm of possibility for Bermuda to have a strike from a cat 4. Fabian/Gonzalo reincarnate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 I have been to Bermuda 25 plus times over my lifeltime- a gorgeous island in every way. Most recently at the end of July. Their houses are all made of limestone from the foundation to the roof. They have a robust emergency preparation/response system. Not a lot of low-lying areas. They are better prepared to withstand a major hurricane than almost anywhere else and will experience minimal structural damage or loss of life (if any) Powerlines are all above ground, so that is the biggest problem they face and have in the past. No one likes not having power for any length of time for sure. Many Bermudians are stocking up appropriately, without panic. . . including an appropriate amount of dark rum, ginger beer, and limes for dark 'n stormies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Just now, AACOUNTYMD said: I have been to Bermuda 25 plus times over my lifeltime- a gorgeous island in every way. Most recently at the end of July. Their houses are all made of limestone from the foundation to the roof. They have a robust emergency preparation/response system. Not a lot of low-lying areas. They are better prepared to withstand a major hurricane than almost anywhere else and will experience minimal structural damage or loss of life (if any) Powerlines are all above ground, so that is the biggest problem they face and have in the past. No one likes not having power for any length of time for sure. Many Bermudians are stocking up appropriately, without panic. . . including an appropriate amount of dark rum, ginger beer, and limes for dark 'n stormies. How did they fare in Humberto and Gonzalo (Ernesto's brothers)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Humberto- a little research gives me this info: Gusts to 144 were measured with top sustained winds of 83 storm surge 2-4 feet. 11 medical calls. . .no serious injuries or loss of life My friends there mentioned A lot of downed trees, 80% of the island lost power, small boats damaged/sunk. . Mini tornadoes were reported, which didn't help. Bird population was especially hit hard. . . Roads were almost all made passable within 24 hours and people went to work So, yes, there was damage, Cat 2-3 is no joke. But, if any island is ready as they can be, it is Bermuda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 7 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said: Humberto- a little research gives me this info: Gusts to 144 were measured with top sustained winds of 83 storm surge 2-4 feet. 11 medical calls. . .no serious injuries or loss of life My friends there mentioned A lot of downed trees, 80% of the island lost power, small boats damaged/sunk. . Mini tornadoes were reported, which didn't help. Bird population was especially hit hard. . . Roads were almost all made passable within 24 hours and people went to work So, yes, there was damage, Cat 2-3 is no joke. But, if any island is ready as they can be, it is Bermuda. Humberto Gonzalo Ernesto Joaquin Notice a pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 8 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said: Humberto- a little research gives me this info: Gusts to 144 were measured with top sustained winds of 83 storm surge 2-4 feet. 11 medical calls. . .no serious injuries or loss of life My friends there mentioned A lot of downed trees, 80% of the island lost power, small boats damaged/sunk. . Mini tornadoes were reported, which didn't help. Bird population was especially hit hard. . . Roads were almost all made passable within 24 hours and people went to work So, yes, there was damage, Cat 2-3 is no joke. But, if any island is ready as they can be, it is Bermuda. How did humberto size up to fabian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Fabian was certainly worse. Loss of life did occur, sadly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 26 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: How did humberto size up to fabian? Think you might be a bit obsessed with comparing storms to other storms. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Just now, NotSureWeather said: Think you might be a bit obsessed with comparing storms to other storms. I like making analogs 15 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said: Fabian was certainly worse. Loss of life did occur, sadly. I hope Ernesto doesn't pull a Fabian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 12Z UKMET: 50 miles SW of Bermuda (similar to 0Z) then moves ENE in N. Atlantic without threat to land (0Z had crossed Newfoundland): TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 67.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 14.08.2024 0 20.1N 67.3W 998 51 0000UTC 15.08.2024 12 22.5N 68.5W 995 51 1200UTC 15.08.2024 24 24.8N 68.9W 992 51 0000UTC 16.08.2024 36 26.9N 67.7W 989 50 1200UTC 16.08.2024 48 29.0N 66.1W 987 53 0000UTC 17.08.2024 60 31.2N 64.5W 981 62 1200UTC 17.08.2024 72 32.6N 63.7W 980 51 0000UTC 18.08.2024 84 33.0N 63.5W 979 56 1200UTC 18.08.2024 96 34.4N 63.0W 980 58 0000UTC 19.08.2024 108 36.4N 62.3W 975 64 1200UTC 19.08.2024 120 38.9N 60.3W 971 64 0000UTC 20.08.2024 132 41.7N 56.1W 967 72 1200UTC 20.08.2024 144 44.3N 49.0W 973 63 0000UTC 21.08.2024 156 46.9N 39.3W 978 54 1200UTC 21.08.2024 168 50.9N 28.6W 973 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 12z ICON would be a worst-case scenario for Bermuda. A 943 mb cat 4 hurricane slowing down on approach and impacting the island for about 20 hours without any significant weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 models have it weaker barely a 3 now as of 12z 00z and 6z were moderate Cat 3s with some nearing cat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 On 8/13/2024 at 1:09 PM, jbenedet said: Surprising seeing consensus to miss Puerto Rico, given current position and trajectory. Next 6 hours will be interesting, not just for Puerto Rico, but a direct hit; however unlikely, would have important implications to intensity and therefore track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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