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Hurricane Ernesto


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22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 0Z Euro: unlike 12Z which went 150 miles E of Bermuda, this run swerves W and misses Bermuda W by 175 miles followed by a LF on E Nova Scotia and SW Newfoundland!

It’s been really interesting to see how the euro and gfs specifically are waffling with the longer range forecast. I won’t be surprised to see other major shifts. 

4FsFYo5.png
 

7eg5jSX.png

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20 minutes ago, Hazey said:


Yikes. Getting concerning up here in the Maritimes. Can see from the tracks that if it goes west of Bermuda, we’re gonna have problems especially in Nfld. We watch closely.

Euro shifted west

Keep an eye on it up there

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Today's 06z models are still very bullish. No tales from Mumbai loonyland here.

ICON: 944 mb at 108 hrs, probably a cat 4.
HWRF: 948 mb at 60 hrs with peak winds of 108 kt, a strong cat 3.
HMON: 955 mb at 51 hrs with peak winds of 116 kt, a cat 4.
HAFS-A: 947 mb at 108 hrs with peak winds of 109 kt, a strong cat 3. Intensification is much more gradual though.
HAFS-B: 957 mb at 48 hrs with peak winds of 110 kt, a strong cat 3.

These models together would blend to a high-end cat 3 or low-end cat 4 hurricane (around 950 mb / 113 kt assuming ICON's 944 mb would result in ~120 kt).

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Bermuda is a tiny target to hit. It fits nearly within the DC beltway with room to spare. Bermuda has had a number of brushes with major hurricanes and a handful of direct hits. But never a cat 4 plus. With SSTs being way above normal, it is not outside the realm of possibility for Bermuda to have a strike from a cat 4.

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5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Bermuda is a tiny target to hit. It fits nearly within the DC beltway with room to spare. Bermuda has had a number of brushes with major hurricanes and a handful of direct hits. But never a cat 4 plus. With SSTs being way above normal, it is not outside the realm of possibility for Bermuda to have a strike from a cat 4.

 

Fabian/Gonzalo reincarnate?

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I have been to Bermuda 25 plus times over my lifeltime- a gorgeous island in every way.  Most recently at the end of July. Their houses are all made of limestone from the foundation to the roof. They have a robust emergency preparation/response system.  Not a lot of low-lying areas. They are better prepared to withstand a major hurricane than almost anywhere else and will experience minimal structural damage or loss of life (if any) Powerlines are all above ground, so that is the biggest problem they face and have in the past. No one likes not having power for any length of time for sure.  Many Bermudians are stocking up appropriately, without panic. . . including an appropriate amount of dark rum, ginger beer, and limes for dark 'n stormies. 

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Just now, AACOUNTYMD said:

I have been to Bermuda 25 plus times over my lifeltime- a gorgeous island in every way.  Most recently at the end of July. Their houses are all made of limestone from the foundation to the roof. They have a robust emergency preparation/response system.  Not a lot of low-lying areas. They are better prepared to withstand a major hurricane than almost anywhere else and will experience minimal structural damage or loss of life (if any) Powerlines are all above ground, so that is the biggest problem they face and have in the past. No one likes not having power for any length of time for sure.  Many Bermudians are stocking up appropriately, without panic. . . including an appropriate amount of dark rum, ginger beer, and limes for dark 'n stormies. 

 

How did they fare in Humberto and Gonzalo (Ernesto's brothers)?

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Humberto-  a little research gives me this info: Gusts to 144 were measured with top sustained winds of 83    storm surge 2-4 feet. 11 medical calls. . .no serious injuries or loss of life   

 

My friends there mentioned A lot of downed trees, 80% of the island lost power, small boats damaged/sunk. .   Mini tornadoes were reported, which didn't help. Bird population was especially hit hard. . .  Roads were almost all made passable within 24 hours and people went to work

 

So, yes, there was damage, Cat 2-3 is no joke.  But, if any island is ready as they can be, it is Bermuda. 

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7 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said:

Humberto-  a little research gives me this info: Gusts to 144 were measured with top sustained winds of 83    storm surge 2-4 feet. 11 medical calls. . .no serious injuries or loss of life   

 

My friends there mentioned A lot of downed trees, 80% of the island lost power, small boats damaged/sunk. .   Mini tornadoes were reported, which didn't help. Bird population was especially hit hard. . .  Roads were almost all made passable within 24 hours and people went to work

 

So, yes, there was damage, Cat 2-3 is no joke.  But, if any island is ready as they can be, it is Bermuda. 

 

Humberto

Gonzalo

Ernesto

Joaquin

 

Notice a pattern?

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8 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said:

Humberto-  a little research gives me this info: Gusts to 144 were measured with top sustained winds of 83    storm surge 2-4 feet. 11 medical calls. . .no serious injuries or loss of life   

 

My friends there mentioned A lot of downed trees, 80% of the island lost power, small boats damaged/sunk. .   Mini tornadoes were reported, which didn't help. Bird population was especially hit hard. . .  Roads were almost all made passable within 24 hours and people went to work

 

So, yes, there was damage, Cat 2-3 is no joke.  But, if any island is ready as they can be, it is Bermuda. 

How did humberto size up to fabian?

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12Z UKMET: 50 miles SW of Bermuda (similar to 0Z) then moves ENE in N. Atlantic without threat to land (0Z had crossed Newfoundland):

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 67.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2024 0 20.1N 67.3W 998 51
0000UTC 15.08.2024 12 22.5N 68.5W 995 51
1200UTC 15.08.2024 24 24.8N 68.9W 992 51
0000UTC 16.08.2024 36 26.9N 67.7W 989 50
1200UTC 16.08.2024 48 29.0N 66.1W 987 53
0000UTC 17.08.2024 60 31.2N 64.5W 981 62
1200UTC 17.08.2024 72 32.6N 63.7W 980 51
0000UTC 18.08.2024 84 33.0N 63.5W 979 56
1200UTC 18.08.2024 96 34.4N 63.0W 980 58
0000UTC 19.08.2024 108 36.4N 62.3W 975 64
1200UTC 19.08.2024 120 38.9N 60.3W 971 64
0000UTC 20.08.2024 132 41.7N 56.1W 967 72
1200UTC 20.08.2024 144 44.3N 49.0W 973 63
0000UTC 21.08.2024 156 46.9N 39.3W 978 54
1200UTC 21.08.2024 168 50.9N 28.6W 973 50

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On 8/13/2024 at 1:09 PM, jbenedet said:

Surprising seeing consensus to miss Puerto Rico, given current position and trajectory.

 

Next 6 hours will be interesting, not just for Puerto Rico, but a direct hit; however unlikely, would have important implications to intensity and therefore track...

al052024_track.png

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