CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 Satellite imagery and French radar data from Guadeloupe indicate that convection has become more concentrated near the center of Ernesto during the past several hours, and there is increased evidence of cyclonic rotation in the radar imagery. However, this has not yet resulted in significant intensification, with surface obs from the Leeward Islands showing a large area of pressures near 1007-1009 mb and no evidence of any tight wind center. Based on this and the latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/17, a little slower than before. Ernesto should turn west-northwestward with an additional decrease in forward speed during the next 12 h or so as it approaches a developing break in the subtropical ridge. This motion should bring the center near or over the Leeward Islands today and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday. After that, the flow between the subtropical ridge and a mid-latitude trough moving eastward from the United States should cause the cyclone to turn northward and northeastward. By the end of the forecast period, this trough is expected to move eastward away from Ernesto, with a mid-latitude shortwave ridge passing north of the storm. This development should cause another decrease in forward speed during the 96-120 h period. The new forecast track is close to the various consensus models, and it is also similar to the previous forecast track. Ernesto is forecast to be in an environment of light to moderate shear and over warm sea surface temperatures through the forecast period, and this combination should allow it to strengthen. Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h primarily due to the current lack of organization. After that, a faster rate of strengthening is expected, with Ernesto forecast to reach hurricane strength in 36-48 h. The intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance, and it lies between the intensity consensus and the upper edge of the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Leeward Islands today and to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late today or tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for this entire area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through Wednesday. 3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 16.2N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 17.1N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.7N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 20.7N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 23.0N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 25.1N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 30.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 33.5N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 DNRD Version: Tropical Storm Ernesto is slowly getting stronger as it moves toward the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, where it's expected to bring tropical storm conditions and heavy rain today and tomorrow. The storm is currently at 40 mph winds but is expected to strengthen into a hurricane within the next two days. Key points: Expect tropical storm conditions in the Leeward Islands today, and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by tonight. Heavy rain could cause flash flooding and mudslides in these areas. It's too early to know the impact on Bermuda later this week, but it's worth keeping an eye on. Forecast: Ernesto will likely reach hurricane strength in 36-48 hours, with winds potentially reaching 110 mph by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 06z models are quite bullish in terms of strength. ICON: 939 mb at 108 hrs, probably a high-end cat 4. HWRF: 953 mb at 108 hrs with peak winds of 105 kt, a strong cat 3. HMON: 950 mb at 87 hrs with peak winds of 117 kt, a cat 4. HAFS-A: 957 mb at 114 hrs but with unusually low winds of 'only' 85 kt, cat 2. HAFS-B: 956 mb at 123 hrs with peak winds of 93 kt, a high-end cat 2. These models together would blend to a cat 3 hurricane (around 951 mb / 105 kt assuming ICON's 939 mb would result in ~130 kt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 HWRF and GFS predicting a donut structure, delicious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 13 Author Share Posted August 13 This may not have much of a chance to trend toward mainland U.S. impacts, but Atlantic Canada is still squarely on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This may not have much of a chance to trend toward mainland U.S. impacts, but Atlantic Canada is still squarely on the table. Fiona reincarnate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Surprising seeing consensus to miss Puerto Rico, given current position and trajectory. Next 6 hours will be interesting, not just for Puerto Rico, but a direct hit; however unlikely, would have important implications to intensity and therefore track... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Surprising seeing consensus to miss Puerto Rico, given current position and trajectory. Next 6 hours will be interesting, not just for Puerto Rico, but a direct hit; however unlikely, would have important implications to intensity and therefore track... I think it can still hit New England. Just will need a few adjustments. Also the first of many east coast threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Something weird going on with this on radar out of San Juan. It looks as if it is mid level shear (echoes are being sheared SW as if there are NE winds blowing) . Now I feel like that’s not shear, but either way recon obs (horrendous SW windfield with little to no winds) and radar (see above) suggests a broad disorganized storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 1 hour ago, Normandy said: suggests a broad disorganized storm. JFL at this. The storm is organizing very well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Disagree. This storm has a very odd presentation on radar and satellite. It’s almost as if there are two centers (one about To exit the carribean moving WNW, and another further south still moving west). Interesting to watch unfold on radar this mess of a storm is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 24 minutes ago, Normandy said: Disagree. This storm has a very odd presentation on radar and satellite. It’s almost as if there are two centers (one about To exit the carribean moving WNW, and another further south still moving west). Interesting to watch unfold on radar this mess of a storm is. tales from mumbai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 I think it’s Time for you to go back to India Barrett. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 LOCATION...18.4N 64.7WABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF ST. THOMASABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 What the hell is this thing doing? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 6 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: What the hell is this thing doing? What do you think buddy boyo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 looks like a giant number 8 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 6 minutes ago, Chinook said: looks like a giant number 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 16 minutes ago, Chinook said: looks like a giant number 8 Giving me debby FLASHEDbacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Did Ernesto just split into 2 storms? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayinRI Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Very weird look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 40 minutes ago, LawdogGRNJ said: Did Ernesto just split into 2 storms? 43 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Giving me debby FLASHEDbacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Interesting recon profile here. I wouldn’t go so far as to say there are two separate low level centers, but there is definitely a broad area of low pressure and low wind to the SW of the smaller northern low, with the typical increase in winds happening farther from the center than the northern portion of the storm. Will be a fascinating evolution to watch over the next 24 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 I've never seen a Siamese Tropical Storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 5 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: I've never seen a Siamese Tropical Storm. Remember Debby's sat appearance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Fuaaaark, now forecast to become a major. Mirin brah. DNRD (Didn't Read): Tropical Storm Ernesto passed over the Virgin Islands and is heading northwest, likely impacting Puerto Rico and Bermuda soon. Current Status: Wind speeds at 65 mph; expected to strengthen to a major hurricane by Friday. Key Concerns: Tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday; possible hurricane conditions in some areas. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Bermuda may see impacts by late week; stay alert. Dangerous swells affecting several Caribbean regions and will reach the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda by the weekend. Forecast: Ernesto is expected to strengthen over the next few days, reaching up to 115 mph winds before weakening slightly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.8N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 20.3N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 22.4N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 28.1N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 29.9N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 38.0N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 GEFS shows a somewhat significant amount of spread in the low pressure positions in 3.5 days. This always kinds of fascinates me to see the output of 20 models on the same chart 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 3 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Fuaaaark, now forecast to become a major. Mirin brah. DNRD (Didn't Read): Tropical Storm Ernesto passed over the Virgin Islands and is heading northwest, likely impacting Puerto Rico and Bermuda soon. Current Status: Wind speeds at 65 mph; expected to strengthen to a major hurricane by Friday. Key Concerns: Tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday; possible hurricane conditions in some areas. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Bermuda may see impacts by late week; stay alert. Dangerous swells affecting several Caribbean regions and will reach the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda by the weekend. Forecast: Ernesto is expected to strengthen over the next few days, reaching up to 115 mph winds before weakening slightly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.8N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 20.3N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 22.4N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 28.1N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 29.9N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 38.0N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH wow, HWRF maxes it at 111kt and 950mb at 114hours(4.75 days) but misses Bermuda by a lot. HMON has 82kt, right on Bermuda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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