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Hurricane Ernesto


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Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024

Satellite imagery and French radar data from Guadeloupe indicate
that convection has become more concentrated near the center of
Ernesto during the past several hours, and there is increased
evidence of cyclonic rotation in the radar imagery.  However, this
has not yet resulted in significant intensification, with surface
obs from the Leeward Islands showing a large area of pressures near
1007-1009 mb and no evidence of any tight wind center.  Based on
this and the latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/17, a little slower
than before.  Ernesto should turn west-northwestward with an
additional decrease in forward speed during the next 12 h or so as
it approaches a developing break in the subtropical ridge.  This
motion should bring the center near or over the Leeward Islands
today and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight
and early Wednesday.  After that, the flow between the subtropical
ridge and a mid-latitude trough moving eastward from the United
States should cause the cyclone to turn northward and northeastward.
By the end of the forecast period, this trough is expected to move
eastward away from Ernesto, with a mid-latitude shortwave ridge
passing north of the storm.  This development should cause another
decrease in forward speed during the 96-120 h period.  The new
forecast track is close to the various consensus models, and it is
also similar to the previous forecast track.

Ernesto is forecast to be in an environment of light to moderate
shear and over warm sea surface temperatures through the forecast
period, and this combination should allow it to strengthen.
Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h
primarily due to the current lack of organization.  After that, a
faster rate of strengthening is expected, with Ernesto forecast to
reach hurricane strength in 36-48 h.  The intensity forecast
follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance, and it lies
between the intensity consensus and the upper edge of the guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Leeward Islands today and to the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by late today or tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings are
in effect for this entire area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and
over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through
Wednesday.

3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to
Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 16.2N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 17.1N  63.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 18.7N  65.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 20.7N  67.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 23.0N  68.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  15/1800Z 25.1N  68.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 27.2N  67.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 30.5N  65.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 33.5N  64.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
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DNRD Version:

Tropical Storm Ernesto is slowly getting stronger as it moves toward the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, where it's expected to bring tropical storm conditions and heavy rain today and tomorrow. The storm is currently at 40 mph winds but is expected to strengthen into a hurricane within the next two days.

Key points:

  1. Expect tropical storm conditions in the Leeward Islands today, and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by tonight.
  2. Heavy rain could cause flash flooding and mudslides in these areas.
  3. It's too early to know the impact on Bermuda later this week, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Forecast: Ernesto will likely reach hurricane strength in 36-48 hours, with winds potentially reaching 110 mph by the weekend.

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06z models are quite bullish in terms of strength.

ICON: 939 mb at 108 hrs, probably a high-end cat 4.
HWRF: 953 mb at 108 hrs with peak winds of 105 kt, a strong cat 3.
HMON: 950 mb at 87 hrs with peak winds of 117 kt, a cat 4.
HAFS-A: 957 mb at 114 hrs but with unusually low winds of 'only' 85 kt, cat 2.
HAFS-B: 956 mb at 123 hrs with peak winds of 93 kt, a high-end cat 2.

These models together would blend to a cat 3 hurricane (around 951 mb / 105 kt assuming ICON's 939 mb would result in ~130 kt).

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Surprising seeing consensus to miss Puerto Rico, given current position and trajectory.

 

Next 6 hours will be interesting, not just for Puerto Rico, but a direct hit; however unlikely, would have important implications to intensity and therefore track...

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10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Surprising seeing consensus to miss Puerto Rico, given current position and trajectory.

 

Next 6 hours will be interesting, not just for Puerto Rico, but a direct hit; however unlikely, would have important implications to intensity and therefore track...

I think it  can still hit  New England. Just will need a few adjustments. Also the first  of  many east  coast threats.

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Something weird going on with this on radar out of San Juan.  It looks as if it is mid level shear (echoes are being sheared SW as if there are NE winds blowing) .  Now I feel like that’s not shear, but either way recon obs (horrendous SW windfield with little to no winds) and radar (see above) suggests a broad disorganized storm.

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Disagree.  This storm has a very odd presentation on radar and satellite.  It’s almost as if there are two centers (one about To exit the carribean moving WNW, and another further south still moving west).  Interesting to watch unfold on radar this mess of a storm is.  

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24 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Disagree.  This storm has a very odd presentation on radar and satellite.  It’s almost as if there are two centers (one about To exit the carribean moving WNW, and another further south still moving west).  Interesting to watch unfold on radar this mess of a storm is.  

 

tales from mumbai

image.thumb.png.744265aa5b7f1ddee7378fe86fc27031.png

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Interesting recon profile here. I wouldn’t go so far as to say there are two separate low level centers, but there is definitely a broad area of low pressure and low wind to the SW of the smaller northern low, with the typical increase in winds happening farther from the center than the northern portion of the storm.

Will be a fascinating evolution to watch over the next 24 hours.

IMG_7839.png

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Fuaaaark, now forecast to become a major. Mirin brah.

030122_5day_expCone.png

 

DNRD (Didn't Read):

  • Tropical Storm Ernesto passed over the Virgin Islands and is heading northwest, likely impacting Puerto Rico and Bermuda soon.
  • Current Status: Wind speeds at 65 mph; expected to strengthen to a major hurricane by Friday.
  • Key Concerns:
    1. Tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday; possible hurricane conditions in some areas.
    2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
    3. Bermuda may see impacts by late week; stay alert.
    4. Dangerous swells affecting several Caribbean regions and will reach the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda by the weekend.

Forecast:

  • Ernesto is expected to strengthen over the next few days, reaching up to 115 mph winds before weakening slightly.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 18.8N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 20.3N  66.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 22.4N  68.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 24.4N  68.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 26.3N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 28.1N  67.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 29.9N  66.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 34.0N  64.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 38.0N  63.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
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3 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Fuaaaark, now forecast to become a major. Mirin brah.

030122_5day_expCone.png

 

DNRD (Didn't Read):

  • Tropical Storm Ernesto passed over the Virgin Islands and is heading northwest, likely impacting Puerto Rico and Bermuda soon.
  • Current Status: Wind speeds at 65 mph; expected to strengthen to a major hurricane by Friday.
  • Key Concerns:
    1. Tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday; possible hurricane conditions in some areas.
    2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
    3. Bermuda may see impacts by late week; stay alert.
    4. Dangerous swells affecting several Caribbean regions and will reach the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda by the weekend.

Forecast:

  • Ernesto is expected to strengthen over the next few days, reaching up to 115 mph winds before weakening slightly.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 18.8N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 20.3N  66.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 22.4N  68.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 24.4N  68.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 26.3N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 28.1N  67.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 29.9N  66.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 34.0N  64.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 38.0N  63.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

wow, HWRF maxes it at 111kt and 950mb at 114hours(4.75 days) but misses Bermuda by a lot. HMON has 82kt, right on Bermuda.

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