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Hurricane Ernesto


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10 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

8.479 out  of  10

 

mirin, also

 

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Five, located a few hundred miles east of the 
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
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100% fish system north of PR. Minus any wildly dramatic changes,  Bermuda may or may not see something. With lesser effects down by PR... mind you this morning the wave was going west at 25 mphs very hard to develop systems at those speeds

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Ernesto is absolutely flying West and needs to get out of this rapid easterly flow before it can organize quickly. Once it begins to lift north and exit the zonal flow, Ernesto should start taking advantage of its environment and anomalously warm waters and begin intensifying. SHIPS indices show a 46% chance of RI around hour 72 which gives additional credence to the near unaminous deepening we see from model outputs over the Sargasso Sea. 

Do I think 72 hours out is a bit out of the range for the SHIPS? Sure, especially since statistical models like it are not based in NWP methods, but they are a good indicator of what the environment may look like at that time.

Seen a lot of Fiona thrown around here, idk I'm getting Gonzalo (2014) vibes from this. Perhaps a bit farther west than Gonzalo through the islands.

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9 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Ernesto is absolutely flying West and needs to get out of this rapid easterly flow before it can organize quickly. Once it begins to lift north and exit the zonal flow, Ernesto should start taking advantage of its environment and anomalously warm waters and begin intensifying. SHIPS indices show a 46% chance of RI around hour 72 which gives additional credence to the near unaminous deepening we see from model outputs over the Sargasso Sea. 

Do I think 72 hours out is a bit out of the range for the SHIPS? Sure, especially since statistical models like it are not based in NWP methods, but they are a good indicator of what the environment may look like at that time.

Seen a lot of Fiona thrown around here, idk I'm getting Gonzalo (2014) vibes from this. Perhaps a bit farther west than Gonzalo through the islands.

 
 

>ernesto

>gonzalo

 

I see what you did there

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Ernesto is beginning to develop some deeper convection. However, at present, a strong mid-level circulation with CBs is displaced WSW of the low-level circulation. That being said, the system overall does appear to be improving with time. The TC is still moving at a rapid pace. It likely won't begin to undergo more significant intensification until its forward motion slows and the core can better align.
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