WxWatcher007 Posted August 12 Author Share Posted August 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: rate the new cone 8.479 out of 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 10 minutes ago, ldub23 said: 8.479 out of 10 mirin, also Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 AL, 05, 2024081218, , BEST, 0, 161N, 566W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Tropical Storm FIVEAs of 18:00 UTC Aug 12, 2024: Location: 16.1°N 56.6°WMaximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/AMinimum Central Pressure: 1008 mbEnvironmental Pressure: N/ARadius of Circulation: N/ARadius of Maximum wind: 40 nm34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 12z HWRF finally drops the EWRC-prone structure and shows a much better core structure as it bombs 98L out to the mid-930s on Thursday. It shows the system passing over/near the Virgin Islands/PR as a TS and organizes once it gets north of their latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 AYO WTF IT GOT NAMED ON THIS MAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 5 pm it became Ernesto... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 100% fish system north of PR. Minus any wildly dramatic changes, Bermuda may or may not see something. With lesser effects down by PR... mind you this morning the wave was going west at 25 mphs very hard to develop systems at those speeds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Jeez, it speed up to 28 WNW movement, insane ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Lol, now who hacked the cmc and put 1 ensemble track taking a prefect east coast track to the north east? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Good God look at how fast that things moving west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Jeez, it speed up to 28 WNW movement, insane ! Actually, remember Beryl also was moving very fast as well between 18-25 mph if I recall all the way to the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 15 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Lol, now who hacked the cmc and put 1 ensemble track taking a prefect east coast track to the north east? That would be me. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 E.E. -The “Ernesto Express.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: E.E. -The “Ernesto Express.” That downcasting though, dnrd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Still lots of work to do. Recon showing a giant gyre like structure with no coherent right LLC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Just now, Normandy said: Still lots of work to do. Recon showing a giant huge like structure with no coherent right LLC How quickly or slowly might this spin up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 That moisture envelope is insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Ernesto is absolutely flying West and needs to get out of this rapid easterly flow before it can organize quickly. Once it begins to lift north and exit the zonal flow, Ernesto should start taking advantage of its environment and anomalously warm waters and begin intensifying. SHIPS indices show a 46% chance of RI around hour 72 which gives additional credence to the near unaminous deepening we see from model outputs over the Sargasso Sea. Do I think 72 hours out is a bit out of the range for the SHIPS? Sure, especially since statistical models like it are not based in NWP methods, but they are a good indicator of what the environment may look like at that time. Seen a lot of Fiona thrown around here, idk I'm getting Gonzalo (2014) vibes from this. Perhaps a bit farther west than Gonzalo through the islands. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 9 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: Ernesto is absolutely flying West and needs to get out of this rapid easterly flow before it can organize quickly. Once it begins to lift north and exit the zonal flow, Ernesto should start taking advantage of its environment and anomalously warm waters and begin intensifying. SHIPS indices show a 46% chance of RI around hour 72 which gives additional credence to the near unaminous deepening we see from model outputs over the Sargasso Sea. Do I think 72 hours out is a bit out of the range for the SHIPS? Sure, especially since statistical models like it are not based in NWP methods, but they are a good indicator of what the environment may look like at that time. Seen a lot of Fiona thrown around here, idk I'm getting Gonzalo (2014) vibes from this. Perhaps a bit farther west than Gonzalo through the islands. >ernesto >gonzalo I see what you did there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Ernesto is beginning to develop some deeper convection. However, at present, a strong mid-level circulation with CBs is displaced WSW of the low-level circulation. That being said, the system overall does appear to be improving with time. The TC is still moving at a rapid pace. It likely won't begin to undergo more significant intensification until its forward motion slows and the core can better align. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 That's 20+" of rain for Bermuda over the next few days, primarily from a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 ascended in a few hours from a 3 psl abomination to good looking. Looks primed to take off any moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now