Hurricane Ernesto

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 minute ago, Tezeta said:

maybe we can get a big ocean storm that cools down a significant area of the west atlantic

 

you think it'll be this one?

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

does it seem to be a humberto-tier/fabian-tier threat or is it portrayed as passing by safely?

Dude, Bermuda is a tiny island alone in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. No one has any idea right now if it will hit it or pass by safely. Might be best to take a breather and just watch what happens. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Special Message from NHC

Issued 11 Aug 2024 20:14 UTC

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, located over the Central Tropical Atlantic, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

OUCH

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024
500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024

NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated 
with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past 
several days.  Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that 
the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a 
well-defined center yet.  The associated shower and thunderstorm 
activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible 
satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the 
circulation.  However, since the disturbance is forecast to become 
a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of 
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands 
during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Five.  The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters 
will be investigating this system on Monday.

The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is 
285/18-kt.  The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast 
west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h.  This motion 
should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday. 
Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast 
should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by 
Wednesday and to the north thereafter.  This should bring the 
system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico 
Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico 
on Wednesday.  The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the 
latest GFS and ECMWF models.  Users should keep in mind that the 
track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more 
uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an 
environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear.  Over the next 
day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the 
disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment.  Given 
the current organizational state of the convection and low-level 
wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before 
it can organize into a tropical cyclone.  Around the time the system 
reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly 
conducive environment for strengthening.  Therefore, once the system 
is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to 
strengthen at a faster rate.  The favorable environment will likely 
continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast 
to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the 
western Atlantic.  The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the 
intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the 
consensus aids beyond a couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before 
reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in 
effect.  Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for 
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding 
and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday 
and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday.

3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the 
British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early 
Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress 
of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 13.6N  48.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  12/0600Z 14.3N  51.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  12/1800Z 15.2N  55.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 36H  13/0600Z 15.9N  59.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 48H  13/1800Z 17.0N  62.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 18.3N  64.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 19.8N  66.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 23.9N  67.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 27.7N  66.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

[cptcatz]

18z gfs with a bullseye on Bermuda. If you look closely you can see the island inside the eye. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Unless it’s a strong 4/5, Bermuda can handle the best of any island

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Unless it’s a strong 4/5, Bermuda can handle the best of any island

 Hopefully they don’t get hit! But if there’s going to be an island country hit and I’m stuck there, I’d want it to be Bermuda (which is actually made up of multiple islands). That’s because their building requirements are extremely strict. Also, most of the these islands are quite elevated just inland well above any potential storm surge. So, one just has to evacuate inland away from the beaches and other low spots and get inside. The island with the airport is quite vulnerable to surge and is one exception. One more thing that helps is that Bermuda has natural protection because much of it is surrounded by reefs.

 I’ve been there before (not during a storm).

 I’d actually feel much safer there than here. Here I’d have to evacuate in most cases from a direct hit.

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah I think Bermuda could handle any category.

[Windspeed]

Yeah I think Bermuda could handle any category.

It's interesting that you make that bold statement. A recent article published in the Bermudian presents the what ifs and hypotheticals about high-end hurricanes and Bermuda, answered by Andy Moore, whom I believe used to frequent this board quite often as @OSUmetstud , though it's been a while since I have seen him post.

Now, please do not think that just because I am posting this article, I am in any way suggesting that the eventual hurricane that this thread seeks to analyze will hit Bermuda. That being said, Bermuda has had some close calls with direct hits over the past thirty years by high-end TCs. I do not think it bold to predict that a Category 5 will eventually strike that island in the next few centuries. We are seeing increased OHC in the shallower immediate surface layer creeping upwards of 29-30°C. A real possible scenario is a rapidly intensifying and fast-moving major hurricane imbedded within a favorable upper trough. It is the inevitable worst-case scenario that will unfold that Bermuda takes a direct impact from a Category 5, even if not in our lifetimes.

https://www.thebermudian.com/home-a-garden/hurricane-season-2024/__trashed-7/

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

It's interesting that you make that bold statement. A recent article published in the Bermudian presents the what ifs and hypotheticals about high-end hurricanes and Bermuda, answered by Andy Moore, whom I believe used to frequent this board quite often as [mention=36]OSUmetstud[/mention] , though it's been a while since I have seen him post.

Now, please do not think that just because I am posting this article, I am in any way suggesting that the eventual hurricane that this thread seeks to analyze will hit Bermuda. That being said, Bermuda has had some close calls with direct hits over the past thirty years by high-end TCs. I do not think it bold to predict that a Category 5 will eventually strike that island in the next few centuries. We are seeing increased OHC and higher immediate surface layer creeping upwards of 29-30°C. It is inevitable that a worst scenario will unfold that Bermuda will take a direct impact, even if not in our lifetimes.

https://www.thebermudian.com/home-a-garden/hurricane-season-2024/__trashed-7/

 Just to clarify, I’m not saying that a hurricane can’t be devastating and deadly to Bermuda. Of course it can. But I’m saying that I think that it is about the, if not THE, safest island country to be stuck on for any particular strength if one is unfortunately stuck. And much safer than where I live for sure! I mean I’d be leaving in many cases if a H is coming here.

[Windspeed]

 Just to clarify, I’m not saying that a hurricane can’t be devastating and deadly to Bermuda. Of course it can. But I’m saying that I think that it is about the, if not THE, safest island country to be stuck on for any particular strength if one is unfortunately stuck. And much safer than where I live for sure! I mean I’d be leaving in many cases if a H is coming here.

No worries. I totally agree. There are a few islands on this planet that are battle hardened and seaworthy for high-end wind events. Bermuda is among the best prepared. I'd add Taiwan to that short list as well.

Edit: Actually, a great example of this is the Grenadines. Located in the Windwards, they are quite used to high wind events and build accordingly, regardless of annual hurricane threats. As such, their structures held up quite well during the impact of Beryl's eyewall. The topography mitigated surge impact except for immediate harbor shorelines due to wave action. But unfortunately, many structures still did get deroofed. Vegetation and grid were also stripped and broken down. Simply put, despite their mostly concrete and well-built infrastructure, Carriacou, Petit St. Vincent and Union Island were all devestated.

[Normandy]

The caymans have redic strong concrete construction too.  Regarding PTC 5, still A long ways to go. 

[Floydbuster]

 

[GaWx]

0Z ICON way west!

[MattPetrulli]

Slight shift

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: similar to 12Z run going NNE to the W of Bermuda

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 22.7N 71.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2024 84 22.7N 71.1W 1006 43
0000UTC 16.08.2024 96 24.1N 71.2W 1004 47
1200UTC 16.08.2024 108 26.1N 70.1W 1000 48
0000UTC 17.08.2024 120 27.7N 69.8W 998 43
1200UTC 17.08.2024 132 28.8N 69.9W 997 50
0000UTC 18.08.2024 144 30.2N 70.1W 995 52
1200UTC 18.08.2024 156 32.8N 69.3W 993 50
0000UTC 19.08.2024 168 36.4N 68.2W 982 63

[WxWatcher007]

Note how the GFS has trended away from rapid development, with vorticity further south and elongated in the Caribbean. That leads to less influence of the initial trough. That is something that we already knew to watch, but you see the implications on the model tonight even if there are no direct land impacts outside of the Antilles. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Note how the GFS has trended away from rapid development, with vorticity further south and elongated in the Caribbean. That leads to less influence of the initial trough. That is something that we already knew to watch, but you see the implications on the model tonight even if there are no direct land impacts outside of the Antilles. 

0Z Euro: weak at PR but much stronger with cat 2 H with center just E of Bermuda followed by a miss of Canada

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro: weak at PR but much stronger with cat 2 H with center just E of Bermuda followed by a miss of Canada

Yeah—even on that run though you can see how the initial trough isn’t quite enough on its own to kick it into the open North Atlantic. We’ll see what the trend is tomorrow both on the models and with the development of our PTC. It may be the case that weaker is great for the islands but creates more risk elsewhere. I still think Bermuda and Atlantic Canada should be paying close attention to this one. Still a nonzero longshot for the US. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040 
indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles doe not 
have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not 
well organized.  However, these observations also suggest the 
possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or 
northwest of the advisory position.  Until that is confirmed by 
either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming Hurricane Hunter 
flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone 
status.  The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 kt.

The initial motion is a fast 280/22 kt.  A mid-level ridge is 
forecast to remain in place to the north of the potential tropical 
cyclone for the next 24-36 hours, which should more or less 
maintain the current heading during that period with some decrease 
in forward speed.  After that, a mid-latitude trough moving 
eastward from the eastern United States is forecast to create a 
large break in the subtropical ridge, with the system turning 
northwestward and northward into the break.  While the model 
guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, there 
is still uncertainty on where the predominant center will 
eventually form, and this will affect where the system may track 
with respect to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto 
Rico.  The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the 
previous forecast.

Based on the disturbance's currently disorganized state and 
continued easterly shear, the intensity forecast during the first 
36 h has been nudged downward.  However the system is still 
expected to become a tropical storm near or over the Leeward 
Islands.  Environmental conditions become more favorable for 
development after 24-36 hr, and the intensity forecast shows 
significant strengthening during that time.  This portion of the 
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before or 
as it reaches the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are 
in effect.  Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding 
and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands by later today into 
Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday.

3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the 
nearby islands.  Additional watches and warnings will likely be 
required for portions of the northeastern Caribbean later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 14.4N  52.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  12/1800Z 15.0N  55.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  13/0600Z 15.7N  59.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 16.5N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 17.9N  64.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  14/1800Z 19.4N  66.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 21.0N  66.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 25.0N  67.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 29.5N  65.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

ayo who let bambi sneak in 

[Kevin Reilly]

I think today into tomorrow we see some wiggling around on the models that brings this weaker and further west.  Almost looks like the system splits into two centers which tells me a weak system or a system with no colocated center.  The system may form a center either further west or northwest, but could change the course further down the road.  We shall see? 

[OSUmetstud]

9 hours ago, Windspeed said:

It's interesting that you make that bold statement. A recent article published in the Bermudian presents the what ifs and hypotheticals about high-end hurricanes and Bermuda, answered by Andy Moore, whom I believe used to frequent this board quite often as @OSUmetstud , though it's been a while since I have seen him post.

Now, please do not think that just because I am posting this article, I am in any way suggesting that the eventual hurricane that this thread seeks to analyze will hit Bermuda. That being said, Bermuda has had some close calls with direct hits over the past thirty years by high-end TCs. I do not think it bold to predict that a Category 5 will eventually strike that island in the next few centuries. We are seeing increased OHC in the shallower immediate surface layer creeping upwards of 29-30°C. A real possible scenario is a rapidly intensifying and fast-moving major hurricane imbedded within a favorable upper trough. It is the inevitable worst-case scenario that will unfold that Bermuda takes a direct impact from a Category 5, even if not in our lifetimes.

https://www.thebermudian.com/home-a-garden/hurricane-season-2024/__trashed-7/

The combination of bermuda stone construction (almost no homes made of wood), the hilly nature of the island, the lack of continental shelf, and lower poverty really reduce the potential for high end devastation. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

mirin the 40kt sfmr

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0105A-INVEST_timeseries.png

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah—even on that run though you can see how the initial trough isn’t quite enough on its own to kick it into the open North Atlantic. We’ll see what the trend is tomorrow both on the models and with the development of our PTC. It may be the case that weaker is great for the islands but creates more risk elsewhere. I still think Bermuda and Atlantic Canada should be paying close attention to this one. Still a nonzero longshot for the US. 

Huge Atlantic weakness guarantees no impacts

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

 

[WinterWolf]

What this becomes and where it goes is still a big unknown…development is slow, which changes many variables down the line.  Watch and wait is all anybody can do if they’re interested in where this thing goes ultimately.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

rate the new cone

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

 GFS has Ernesto being born around the 14th or so.  At the end of the run (8/28) it's still a hurricane and still doing loop-the-loops in the north Atlantic.  Year of the long trackers.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: TCG sooner; good bit E of 0Z run and goes over Bermuda

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.5N 63.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.08.2024 36 18.0N 64.7W 1009 30
1200UTC 14.08.2024 48 19.6N 66.8W 1008 37
0000UTC 15.08.2024 60 21.1N 68.2W 1006 45
1200UTC 15.08.2024 72 24.2N 68.6W 1003 49
0000UTC 16.08.2024 84 25.5N 68.2W 1001 45
1200UTC 16.08.2024 96 26.9N 67.2W 998 52
0000UTC 17.08.2024 108 27.5N 65.9W 997 50
1200UTC 17.08.2024 120 28.9N 65.6W 996 48
0000UTC 18.08.2024 132 29.7N 65.0W 993 45
1200UTC 18.08.2024 144 30.6N 65.8W 992 38
0000UTC 19.08.2024 156 32.0N 65.2W 992 43
1200UTC 19.08.2024 168 34.7N 64.5W 991 48

———————

12Z CMC just W of Bermuda and misses Canada. 12Z ICON well W of Bermuda like 0Z.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET: TCG sooner; good bit E of 0Z run and goes over Bermuda

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.5N 63.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.08.2024 36 18.0N 64.7W 1009 30
1200UTC 14.08.2024 48 19.6N 66.8W 1008 37
0000UTC 15.08.2024 60 21.1N 68.2W 1006 45
1200UTC 15.08.2024 72 24.2N 68.6W 1003 49
0000UTC 16.08.2024 84 25.5N 68.2W 1001 45
1200UTC 16.08.2024 96 26.9N 67.2W 998 52
0000UTC 17.08.2024 108 27.5N 65.9W 997 50
1200UTC 17.08.2024 120 28.9N 65.6W 996 48
0000UTC 18.08.2024 132 29.7N 65.0W 993 45
1200UTC 18.08.2024 144 30.6N 65.8W 992 38
0000UTC 19.08.2024 156 32.0N 65.2W 992 43
1200UTC 19.08.2024 168 34.7N 64.5W 991 48

———————

12Z CMC just W of Bermuda and misses Canada. 12Z ICON well W of Bermuda like 0Z.

 

chomp chomp

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2024081206/hwrf-p_satIR_05L_18.png