wthrmn654 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is slightly more west compared to earlier runs up here. You sure about that? After it get to about Bermuda it going northeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 11 Author Share Posted August 11 That’s not particularly helpful. Hurricane models aren’t going to have a handle on the actual potential of a system at this development stage. At all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 5 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Poor guy on its own 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s not particularly helpful. Hurricane models aren’t going to have a handle on the actual potential of a system at this development stage. At all. Fair enough, I'll stick to ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Just now, wthrmn654 said: Poor guy on its own Over for HWFI. It's an outlier so I wouldn't bet on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Just now, wthrmn654 said: that uncomfortable west teeter tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Hmm that is a west trend. I was more confident about out to sea yesterday, but it is just too early until we have a system well developed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 That 60W/20N is a big climo spot. Storms that pass NE re-curve >90% of the time. CV Storms that pass SW of it re-curve vs hit land 60/40. Models do have a -EPO developing when the storm is getting close to the EC, and that favors more of a troughy pattern, so I would right now probably favor a turn out to sea, but if it tracks so far south as to the Caribbean first, it could stay clear of the EC trough, but I don't see the pattern as favorable for SE US or NE, US hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That 60W/20N is a big climo spot. Storms that pass NE re-curve >90% of the time. CV Storms that pass SW of it re-curve vs hit land 60/40. Models do have a -EPO developing when the storm is getting close to the EC, and that favors more of a troughy pattern, so I would right now probably favor a turn out to sea, but if it tracks so far south as to the Caribbean first, it could stay clear of the EC trough, but I don't see the pattern as favorable for SE US or NE, US hits. Gfs and cmc more ots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Overnight everything moving east, seems to be a clear OTS path. Could have a major hurricane getting close to Bermuda though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That 60W/20N is a big climo spot. Storms that pass NE re-curve >90% of the time. CV Storms that pass SW of it re-curve vs hit land 60/40. Models do have a -EPO developing when the storm is getting close to the EC, and that favors more of a troughy pattern, so I would right now probably favor a turn out to sea, but if it tracks so far south as to the Caribbean first, it could stay clear of the EC trough, but I don't see the pattern as favorable for SE US or NE, US hits. Maybe a new found land special? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 9 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Overnight everything moving east, seems to be a clear OTS path. Could have a major hurricane getting close to Bermuda though. Fabian/dumberto tier? Sheeeeeit I hope that doesn’t happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: Maybe a new found land special? Over for new bengaluru Fiona redux anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area as soon as later today. The system could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Sheeeeeit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Think it’s either a depression or upgraded to potential at 2pm. I’m on my phone but the last few images you can really see it getting the pieces in place. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 8 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: Think it’s either a depression or upgraded to potential at 2pm. I’m on my phone but the last few images you can really see it getting the pieces in place. None of that shows a closed vortex at the low levels as I cannot see low level westerlies. There is some mid level spin present, but no indication of a TC at this time. Satellite imagery, especially IR satellite, can play tricks 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 2 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: None of that shows a closed vortex at the low levels as I cannot see low level westerlies. There is some mid level spin present, but no indication of a TC at this time. Satellite imagery, especially IR satellite, can play tricks Just saying it’s looking more organized the last 4 hours or so. It’s already close to getting a name anyway, up to 70% within 48 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 30 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: None of that shows a closed vortex at the low levels as I cannot see low level westerlies. There is some mid level spin present, but no indication of a TC at this time. Satellite imagery, especially IR satellite, can play tricks We’ve been naming ghost storms for the past 5 years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 There's a GOES-East floater on it, and as Boston Bulldog said, we don't yet have a defined surface low. You're not going to get one until we get persistent convection to help mix out the dry SAL air encompassing western and northern parts of the broader circulation. NHC would be wise to go with PTC advisories by this evening given impacts begin in <48 hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 12z GFS nails Bermuda, icon brushes it as a 940 storm. I think impacts to Bermuda could be the story with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Still got some genesis issues today. Tons easterly shear, broad vortex, and lack of focused and concentrated convection. Got to watch to see how long this genesis takes. Until that happens I’m not totally confident in where this turn north occurs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 12Z CMC also hits Bermuda hard with center passing just to the W. That’s a big shift W for it 12Z GEFS mean shifts E significantly with virtually none near the CONUS and the mean centered on Bermuda. Some brush SE Canada. 12Z UKMET passes 150 miles W of Bermuda while moving NW. *Edit: 12Z Euro passes 150 miles SE of Bermuda with little effect on Bermuda. Then passes well SE of Canada. 12Z EPS centered around Bermuda with only a few W outliers near CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 80/90 now. doesn’t seem to pose a threat to CONUS but NE Carib and bermuda should watch this one 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 29 minutes ago, cardinalland said: 80/90 now. doesn’t seem to pose a threat to CONUS but NE Carib and bermuda should watch this one does it seem to be a humberto-tier/fabian-tier threat or is it portrayed as passing by safely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 I wonder if ernesto would use the hot water to the north to his advantage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 maybe we can get a big ocean storm that cools down a significant area of the west atlantic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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